EconVerse

Stacker_Stocks

OPEC+ opening the tap + geopolitical prize evaporating with peace talks in Ukraine.

Inflation thanks them, producers suffer. The warning sign is clear: low prices put pressure on cash flow and Petrobras' leverage becomes a central theme to sustain the development plan.

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Oil below $55 — lowest level since 2021.

November's payroll figures surprised on the upside after the sharp drop in October, but the overall signal points to a gradual slowdown.

The unemployment rate rose to its highest level in four years, reinforcing the view of a less tight labor market.

For the Fed, the picture doesn't yet change the baseline scenario, but it reduces the urgency for further tightening.

The data helps support the narrative of a soft landing, with resilient but less inflationary growth.

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US: Labor market in transition

Long-term interest rates remain under pressure globally, including in economies with a disinflationary bias, such as China.

With yields rising outside the US, the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields tend to be pulled along, even with Fed rate cuts on the horizon.

This is not a comfortable backdrop for equities.

![](https://m.stacker.news/122114)

The long term is nerve-wracking.

WTI crude oil has returned to its lowest levels since May, with Brent crude also under pressure, reflecting high global inventories and expectations of a surplus ahead.

The weakness of US stock markets and the lower liquidity at the end of the year are amplifying volatility.

Geopolitical risks offer some psychological support, but, on balance, the dominant theme remains oversupply and difficulty in sustaining prices in the short term.

![](https://m.stacker.news/122075)

Oil under pressure: oversupply dominates the short term.

Reports indicate a possible secondary funding round that would value SpaceX at $800 billion, surpassing the combined value of the largest US defense companies.

Beyond rockets, the debate revolves around Starlink, Starship, and the thesis of orbital data centers as a new scaling vector for computing and AI.

If confirmed, it's not just a new valuation; it's a redefinition of what critical infrastructure means in the 21st century.

![](https://m.stacker.news/122058)

SpaceX at $800 billion: valuation or vision for the future?

Sector sensitivity shows a clear trend: energy and financials perform better when growth is surprisingly positive, while staples and utilities gain traction with higher interest rates.

In the middle of the chart, technology, communications, and healthcare become more dependent on the direction of the cycle.

The interpretation is of a gradual rotation towards cyclical sectors and mid-caps, as the market begins to price in improved growth, and not just interest rates.

![](https://m.stacker.news/122057)

Is there a rotation underway in the US?

The price spread between Ferrari and GM plummeted at the end of 2025, signaling a reversal of the "luxury/high-income" trade-off.

K-shaped consumption continues in 2025, but the market is beginning to anticipate 2026 with a rotation towards "Main Street".

Mid, small, and micro caps are starting to capture expectations of hotter and less concentrated growth.

Less Wall Street, more real economy?

![](https://m.stacker.news/121863)

Rotation in progress: luxury loses momentum, real economy gains traction.

The consensus among global strategists remains constructive. The S&P 500 is projected to reach near 7,600 points in 2026, and virtually no major banks in Europe are expecting a significant decline.

The backdrop is clear: a gradual rotation towards underperforming stocks in 2025, a weaker dollar, and the absence of negative catalysts in the short term.

When everyone sees the same positive scenario, the risk ceases to be the event itself and becomes the price.

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Markets are already looking ahead to 2026.

Prediction markets are no longer a niche market: Polymarket and Kalshi already move billions of dollars a week.

Growth accelerates especially during macro and political events, where the incentive for accurate information is high.

In practice, they have become a new price discovery mechanism, often faster than traditional research.

The next test is not one of demand, but of regulation, governance, and integration with the formal financial system.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121673)

Prediction markets have become a billion-dollar market.

Major global banks are already projecting a weaker dollar in 2026, reflecting a deeper interest rate cutting cycle in the US.

Morgan Stanley projects a drop of around 5% in the first half of the year, opening up space for relative appreciation of the euro, yen, and pound.

The interpretation is clear: interest rate differentials are no longer working in favor of the dollar and are now favoring developed currencies and assets outside the US.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121663)

A weaker dollar is part of the global consensus.

The new geometry of global energy demand
Projections to 2030 show an impressive leap: global demand for electricity is expected to be four times greater than in 2020, driven mainly by the US, China, and Europe.

This is the materialization of advances in AI, data centers, and electrification, sectors that make it clear that the energy bottleneck will be one of the central themes of the next decade.

And that's why I'm increasingly focused on energy companies—and I intend to double my investments in this sector in the coming years.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121568)

Demand Exploding: Why I'm Doubling Down on Energy

Apollo's chart is an unsettling reminder: the historical relationship between the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio and the annualized return over the next 10 years points to a real risk of near-zero returns in the next decade if current multiples persist.

This is not a deterministic prediction, but a solid empirical observation reinforcing that price matters.

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S&P 500: Returns vs. Price

As we've mentioned several times over the past few days, the printer will be turned back on. Here are the details.

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The Fed cut the rate by 0.25%, to a range of 3.5%–3.75%. This brings borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. The committee remained divided, with three members continuing to vote against the cut—something that hadn't happened since September 2019. Stephen Miran advocated for a larger reduction of 0.5%, in contrast to Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid, who argued for maintaining the rates.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121395)



Furthermore, the FOMC indicated that they expect only a 0.25% cut in 2026. Until yesterday, the market expected 2%.

Regarding GDP, the Fed revised its growth forecasts upwards for 2025 (1.7% versus 1.6%) and 2026 (2.3% versus 1.8%). PCE inflation is now expected to be slightly lower this year, at 2.9% (versus 3.0%), and next year, at 2.4% (versus 2.6%). The unemployment rate forecasts were maintained at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026.


However, what shocked many (but not us, who have been widely reporting on this movement in recent days) was the announcement of a $40 billion monthly injection until April 2026, starting this week.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121396)



Clearly, the Fed took too long to end QT, and the stress in the liquidity market is already reaching worrying levels.

Bank reserves have fallen significantly, and the SOFR (a type of CDI) has soared above what is normally tolerated.



Although we have stock markets at record highs, commodities skyrocketing, low unemployment, and inflation still out of control, the Fed will inject money.

It's true that it will be much less than during the pandemic. However, as in 2019, when they also started by injecting $300 billion, paving the way for the bazooka that came in 2020.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121397)



This should bring favorable winds for risk assets in 2026, and nobody will be able to stop this train.

Fed cuts rates again; expected move, yet markets surged after the announcement.

China has never produced so much. Factories at record levels, exports exploding.

But there's a problem: what once propelled the world may now be suffocating the global economy.

The reversal no one saw

Until recently, Chinese growth was synonymous with heated global demand.

When China grew, it bought more from all over the world – commodities, machinery, technology.

Now the game has changed.

By 2025, China will have accumulated a US$1.1 trillion trade surplus. Meanwhile, it has reduced imports by 3% and aggressively expanded exports.

The result?

It is capturing market share and displacing production from countries like Mexico and South Korea.

Xi Jinping's strategy prioritizes self-sufficiency and industrial dominance – from simple manufacturing to semiconductors and AI.

Devalued currency, cheap energy, idle capacity being exported at low prices.

This puts pressure on margins globally and redefines production chains.

While the US increased imports by 10% and boosted global demand, China is doing the opposite: producing more, buying less, and displacing competitors.

What to expect going forward:

- Trade tensions are expected to intensify
- Countries will try to react with barriers, but will face retaliation in critical supply chains
- Consumers benefit from low prices, but global industries suffer
- Metal commodities (especially copper) may benefit from the AI ​​dispute

The question is: do your investments benefit or are they harmed in this context?

![](https://m.stacker.news/121328)

China has become the brake on global growth.

Recent movements in fixed income markets suggest that the cycle of rate cuts by major central banks may be nearing its end.

Global long-term yields have reached their highest level since 2009, reflecting doubts about monetary policy, inflation, and fiscal discipline.

In the US, the discussion about the independence of the next Fed chair adds a risk premium to the yield curve, while Europe, Japan, and Australia are already showing a retreat in bets on easing.

The "disappointment trade" in bonds is gaining momentum, with investors repricing a world of persistently higher interest rates.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121315)

Long-term interest rates are back at the center of the global debate.

It has thus become the best commodity of the year, and many are already speculating that the movement could turn into a short squeeze capable of taking metal to $100. But the real question isn't how far it will go. The question is: is this hype or fundamental?

![](https://m.stacker.news/121187)


Silver has risen more than 80% in 12 months, outperforming gold, natural gas, and copper. This is not an isolated or speculative increase. It is a historic repricing of a metal that spent decades too cheap for the strategic role it plays.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121188)


Unlike the price surges of 1980 and 2011, today's increase is not born from panic or manipulation. It arises because the global industry needs more silver than the world can produce. We are not facing euphoria. We are facing physical scarcity.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121189)



The solar industry alone will consume more than 424 million ounces of silver by 2030. That's equivalent to 40% of the current global annual supply. Without silver, there is no efficient solar energy. Without solar energy, the energy transition collapses.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121190)



Electric vehicles, AI, data centers, robotics, and advanced batteries also rely on silver. Some new battery models may contain up to 1 kilogram of silver per car. It is not possible to replace this metal with the same conductivity, stability, and durability. There is a silver shortage.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121191)



At the same time, global stockpiles disappeared. London is dry, traders have had to transport bars by plane, and the cost of borrowing silver has reached 200 percent per year. This is a sign of a physical squeeze, not digital speculation.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121192)



Another factor accelerated everything. The United States has just included silver on its official list of critical minerals. Now the metal is treated as a strategic resource. This changes the dynamics of exports, stockpiles, and industrial incentives. Silver has become a matter of sovereignty.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121193)




The problem is that production can't keep up. Only 28% of the silver extracted worldwide comes from dedicated mines. The rest is a byproduct of zinc, lead, gold, or copper. Even with high prices, there isn't enough supply to grow quickly.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121194)




So the current movement isn't just a short squeeze. It's the end of decades of financial repression in a metal that was treated as cheap jewelry while, in practice, becoming an essential ingredient of the digital economy and the energy transition.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121195)





Hype is when a price rises without foundation. What's happening with silver in 2025 is the opposite. The price is only beginning to reflect a technological and energy reality. If the world truly moves towards green and AI, the future doesn't ask if it will reach 100. It asks when.

Silver hit a $60 all-time high and almost no one is talking about it.

The Japanese market is experiencing its strongest year for fundraising since 2018, with offerings exceeding ¥1.2 trillion and oversubscriptions above 60x, reflecting Asian liquidity and appetite for new names.

This movement follows the broader wave of IPOs in Asia, which includes India at record highs and Hong Kong in recovery.

For those who follow global cycles, this flow reinforces the thesis of regional rotation and structural repositioning of capital.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121138)

IPO boom in Japan

Discussions about the succession at the Fed are already showing up: the mere possibility of a chair perceived as less independent reignites the risk that the central bank will have to resort to QE to keep long-term interest rates down.

The case of the United Kingdom in 2022 is a good reminder… fiscal and institutional credibility weighs much more heavily on duration than “forced cuts”.

![](https://m.stacker.news/121137)

The succession at the Fed is already affecting the yield curve.

At least that's what several banks are already saying.

The Fed is expected to inject $150 billion into bank reserves. This is all to save the repo market, which has shown serious imbalances in recent weeks.

If the economy weakens, this amount could easily explode to trillions of dollars.

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Pressure on the system: Fed may initiate a new liquidity cycle with $150 billion

Technical flow has returned with force: CTAs are re-leveraging, systematic selling is disappearing, realized volatility is falling, and models are starting to re-add exposure.

If this is what they call "cautious positioning," imagine what full-blown euphoria would be like…

![](https://m.stacker.news/120943)