EconVerse

Stacker_Stocks

Billion-Dollar Bellaviva Project in Orlando Enters Judicial Recovery

https://bondoro.com/bellaviva-at-whispering-hills-filing-alert/

Bellaviva at Whispering Hills was no small project—it was estimated at $1.6 billion. The contract signed in 2021 involved a Dubai-based investment group and would have included over 5,500 residences, a medical center, restaurants, and more, in an area near Orlando, FL. 😶‍🌫️ It has just filed for bankruptcy protection.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112564)

![](https://m.stacker.news/112565)

No single country or institution has reduced its Treasury holdings more significantly than the Fed in the past three years.
 
Eventually, the Fed — or another arm of the U.S. government — will need to step back in as the dominant buyer of Treasuries, in my view.
 
Ending quantitative tightening does not itself overhaul Treasury demand structurally, but it’s a necessary part of moving toward that scenario.
 
More importantly:
 
The US is steadily moving toward a framework of full financial repression, and the Fed’s policy stance will need to reflect that shift.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112560)

he Fed’s Next Move: From Quantitative Tightening to Full Financial Repression

Those who bought NASDAQ in 2000 took 15 YEARS just to recoup their capital.

The indicators are flashing RED today. I'll show you four that you NEED to watch:

![](https://m.stacker.news/112503)



1️⃣ CAPE RATIO (Shiller P/E)

Today: 35x Historical average: 17x Signal: 🔴 DANGER

Measures price vs. adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. Above 30 = historically WEAK future returns. Every time it has gone above 30, the S&P has fallen 30%+ in the following years.



2️⃣ BUFFETT INDICATOR

Today: 200% of GDP Historical average: 85% Signal: 🔴 EXTREME

Warren Buffett calls it the "best single indicator." Total Market Cap / GDP > 150% = "playing with fire." In 2000, it was at 140%. Today? 200%.



3️⃣ MARGIN DEBT

Today: $935 billion (RECORD) Signal: 🔴 EUPHORIA

Investors are so confident they BORROW to buy more. Every record high = crash within 12-18 months. 2000 ✓ 2007 ✓ 2021 ✓ 2024?



4️⃣ EQUITY RISK PREMIUM

Today: 3.5% Average: 5.5% Signal: 🟡 ALERT

Difference between expected returns on stocks vs. bonds. Lower premium = lower compensation for risk. Translation: you earn a LITTLE EXTRA for taking a LOT MORE risk.



📊 HISTORICAL FACTS:

Those who bought the S&P 500 with a CAPE > 30: • Average 10-year return: 3% per year • Chance of losing money: 40%

Those who bought with a CAPE < 15: • Average 10-year return: 15% per year • Chance of losing money: 0%


"Buy and hold forever" does NOT work when you buy high

BooksAndArticles

The man who popularized artificial intelligence around the world wrote 17 lessons that went viral in Silicon Valley.

He runs OpenAI, now valued at $500 billion, the largest private company in the world.

These lessons have become required reading for anyone who wants to build something big!

![](https://m.stacker.news/112207)

![](https://m.stacker.news/112208)


1. The starting point is intensity.

Optimism, obsession, confidence, and good connections are what set any project in motion.

Nothing moves forward without energy and people driving you forward.



2. What leads to failure is obsession and irrational commitment.

Aligned teams, a balance between calm and haste, and an unhealthy focus on the long term.

Stop worrying about what others think in the short term.
This disappears over time.



3. Doing something difficult and important is more engaging than doing something easy and irrelevant.

It's easier to recruit, motivate, and retain good professionals when the challenge is great.

Likely commitments don't excite anyone.




4. Incentives are superpowers

People do what they are rewarded for.

Get incentives wrong and the team's behavior will go off track.

Structure shapes behavior.




5. Focus on a few high-conviction bets.

You don't need a lot of ideas, you need a few right ones.

Eliminate anything that isn't a top priority.

If you're not sure, the answer is no.




6. Poorly communicated ideas die early.

Clarity in communication is one of the most underrated weapons in the real world.

Explain clearly. Speak simply.

If you can't, it's because you didn't understand properly.




7. Fight bureaucracy wherever it appears.

And encourage others to do the same.

Don't let the organizational chart become an obstacle for those who want to work.




8. Good intentions aren't enough.

You can follow all the right processes and still fail.

Results matter more than appearing to be on the right track.




9. Spend more time hiring.

Look for people with a fast learning curve.

The ability to execute is more valuable than intelligence alone.




10. Superstars are worth more than they seem.

However, a star that shines alone sometimes overwhelms the team.

Talent is important, but the net impact on the collective is even more so.




11. Failing quickly is better than not acting at all.

Those who build great things test, fail, adjust, and move on.
You learn more by doing than by planning.

Plans need to be measured in decades, execution in weeks.





12- Don't fight the laws of physics.

Some limitations simply exist.

Ignoring them is a recipe for failure.




13- Inspiration has an expiration date.

It comes and goes.
You can't depend on it.

Life flies by.
Standing still, overthinking, is one of the greatest risks.




14- Scale brings effects that aren't apparent at first.

Things that didn't exist on a small scale begin to emerge as the business grows.

New dynamics emerge, as do new pain points.

If you're not careful, surprises become problems.




15. Accumulated growth is magical.

If you build something that grows stronger as it grows, time is on your side.




16. Get up and keep going.

Most people give up.

You just have to keep doing it.




17. Working with good people is one of the best parts of life.

It's that simple.

And that's what makes it all worth it.



Sam Altman shared the manual to become a billionaire!

A communist leader visited NASA and saw super-technological rockets that could reach the moon, but wasn't impressed.

However, when he walked into a random supermarket in Texas, he couldn't believe his eyes.


![](https://m.stacker.news/112163)


This isn't a joke, much less a story about supermarkets.

This is the most important economic lesson of the 20th century—a lesson every student should understand before graduating.

Because what surprised Boris Yeltsin should terrify him about what we're losing.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112164)



In 1989, Boris Yeltsin, leader of Soviet Russia, visited the United States.

First stop: NASA. Rockets that could reach the Moon.

Space technology that dazzled the world. Yeltsin's reaction? Mildly interested.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112165)



Second stop: A random grocery store in Texas.

Stocked shelves. Endless options. Fresh produce from all over the planet. Yeltsin couldn't believe his eyes.

This ordinary store had more food than the special stores reserved for the Communist Party elites in his country.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112166)



On the plane home, Yeltsin was dejected. He couldn't stop thinking about those shelves.

About what his people were eating. About what he'd been told his whole life.

Everything he believed about socialism had crumbled in a supermarket aisle.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112167)



Consider what this means:

The leader of a superpower was more impressed by supermarket logistics than space technology.

Why? Because in his country, the government controlled food distribution. And it was failing catastrophically.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112169)



Yeltsin realized something that shook his worldview:

It's not that the government wasn't trying hard enough. It's that when the government controls everything, nothing works!

But when people are free to solve problems? Magic happens.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112170)



Take a look around you today:

✅ You can order food from any country with a click
✅ Grocery stores stock over 40,000 different products
✅ Supply chains that stretch across the globe function perfectly

None of this happened because bureaucrats planned it.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112171)



Meanwhile, in countries that still adhere to Yeltsin's old beliefs:

❌ Cuba: Food rationing and empty shelves
❌ Venezuela: People eating garbage to survive
❌ North Korea: Chronic malnutrition

Same ideology. Same results. Every time!

![](https://m.stacker.news/112172)



Here's what your teachers won't tell you:

Supporting the free market doesn't mean "letting evil persist." It's about unleashing human creativity to solve problems government bureaucrats can't even imagine.

Every time someone says "the government should control this," remember Yeltsin's face in that supermarket.

Remember what happens when political control replaces economic freedom.

Remember that prosperity isn't guaranteed—it's earned.

The visit that showed the communist leader the true power of the United States

the request for judicial recovery of one of the largest auto parts suppliers in the USA, First Brands Group LLC.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112067)


/ TLDR - Here's how the FT summarized the situation with the main players who can dance:
- Jefferies: earned undisclosed fees on the financing it provided to First Brands
- A fund at UBS O'Connor holds 30% exposure linked to First Brands
- A Jefferies fund has US$715 million of exposure to First Brands' invoices
- Singer Fitzgerald is trying to rework its deal to buy O'Connor from UBS after the fiasco
- Western Alliance: has exposure to the auto parts maker through leverage facilities it provided to Jefferies


- BlackRock is trying to rescue its money from the Jefferies fund in question
- A major First Brands creditor claims that up to $2.3 billion "simply disappeared"
- A joint venture between Japan's Norinchukin Bank and Mitsui & Co. faces $1.75 billion in exposure linked to First Brands
- Insurers like Allianz are bracing for a wave of potential claims related to First Brands


Other companies have recently filed for bankruptcy in situations similar to First Brands, involving high debt in private credit, shadow banking, opaque financing and risks in the unregulated credit sector, such as Tricolor Holdings.


Tricolor, based in Texas, operates subprime used vehicle financing and primarily serves immigrants and low-income buyers. It filed for Chapter 11 on September 10 of this year, with debts estimated in the billions, including losses to banks like JP Morgan Chase and Fifth Third (which accused it of fraud).



Very similar to First Brands: reliance on off-balance-sheet private debt, aggressive growth through private credit lending, and rapid collapse due to economic pressures (such as tariffs and falling consumption). This all exposes the risks of shadow banking, with interconnections between banks and private funds. Both companies are involved in the automotive ecosystem, with "invisible" debts that caught investors by surprise and should serve as a warning in a world of private credit that now reaches trillions.



Now look at this: Carnaby Capital Holdings, LLC is another special-purpose financing vehicle group linked to First Brands Group. It primarily operates in financial transactions such as invoice factoring (accounts receivable financing) and opaque loans, which helped conceal First Brands' billion-dollar debt.



These vehicles were created to support First Brands' acquisitions and operations, transforming it into a "disguised financial operation." Patrick James, owner of First Brands, is listed as president and CEO of several Carnaby units. Strange, isn't it? Search for him online, and even in today's connected world, you won't find his picture easily.


This already happened in the subprime crisis that led to the crash of 2007-2008.

Judicial recovery request filed by one of the largest US auto parts suppliers

Learn the story of how a Harvard-educated socialist tried to debunk libertarianism and became one of its strongest defenders.

Most people think freedom needs to be justified.

Robert Nozick has turned the tables: power must be justified!

![](https://m.stacker.news/107736)  


In the 1960s, Nozick was everything the academic world admired:

- Columbia graduate
- Harvard professor
- A staunch socialist

He believed in redistribution, social justice, and the state.

Until a question stuck in his mind:

What if libertarians weren't just selfish, but right?

![](https://m.stacker.news/107737)


He didn't grow up libertarian.

He didn't read Rand. He didn't read Mises.

But unlike many of his peers, Nozick didn't want to win arguments with slogans.

He wanted to understand his opponents and defeat them.

So he began reading libertarian thinkers.

And his reading wasn't what he expected.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107738)


In 1974, Nozick published Anarchy, State, and Utopia.

This shook political philosophy.

John Rawls had just published "A Theory of Justice," arguing for distributive equality.

Nozick responded:

You don't need to justify liberty. You need to justify coercion.


Nozick's central idea was simple:

"Individuals have rights, and there are things that no person or group can do to them without violating those rights."

Rights are not granted by governments.

They are not up for a vote.

They exist before politics.


What kind of state survives this test?

Perhaps a small, very small one.

Nozick envisioned competing private protection agencies.

Eventually, one might dominate... not by force, but by service.

That could be a state.

But only if it didn't violate anyone's rights.


In Nozick's view, the state is a service provider, not a ruler.

It can't force you in. It can't prevent you from leaving.

And it has no special moral status.

It exists to protect you. And only with your consent.


Why did he oppose redistribution?

Because it uses people.

If you can't force your neighbor to clean their house "for the greater good,"

Why can the state force them to give up their work or income?

Nozick's answer: It can't. Not morally.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107739)



In the 1980s, Nozick began writing about other topics: ethics, metaphysics, and knowledge.

Critics claimed he had "outgrown" libertarianism.

But in his final interview, Nozick refuted this myth.

He reaffirmed his core view: Only minimal obligations justify coercion.

And freedom best defines these limits.



You don't have to agree with everything Nozick wrote.

But if you believe in power, now you have to answer his question:

What gives you the right to use another person without their consent?

Most political theories don't even try.

Harvard socialist tries to refute libertarianism and becomes it biggest defender

Company decides to be the first to create a Strategic Reserve in Ethereum.

Less than a month later, participants in the private offering come together to dump the paper without mercy.

The stock plummeted -67% just at today's close.

![](https://m.stacker.news/96327)

The New Era of Strategic Dumps

econ

The ADP jobs report came in much lower than expected: only 37,000 jobs were created, compared to an estimate of 111,000. There is no recent record of such a weak figure. Even with possible changes in the survey methodology, this result surprised everyone. Will Friday's payroll follow the same direction?

![](https://m.stacker.news/94845)

![](https://m.stacker.news/94846)

ADP Disappoints: Employment Data Plunges Ahead of Payroll

Why don’t politicians treat this as an emergency? Adding $12 trillion to the national debt in just four years was one of the greatest acts of irresponsibility in recent times. And the worst part: the spending and benefits created during this period are unlikely to be meaningfully rolled back.

![](https://m.stacker.news/94844)

https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1930320986253209703

The Debt Explosion: The Great Irresponsibility of Recent Years

Trump accuses China of “completely violating the agreement with us.”

![](https://m.stacker.news/94083)

Just two weeks after the US-China trade deal, tensions are already resurfacing.

“Free Starbucks for a month or one whole Bitcoin?”

Emerging markets are currently the only market with valuations below the historical average, says BofA.

While the US is trading at stretched multiples, capital flows could shift to underpriced assets, especially in Asia and Latin America.

![](https://m.stacker.news/92217)

Emerging Markets Are the Only Ones with Below-Average Valuations, Says BofA

The Opening Gap of S&P500 Futures

''I am pleased to announce that tomorrow morning at the White House at 9:00 AM, I will sign one of the most important Executive Orders in the history of our Country. Prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices will be REDUCED, almost immediately, by 30% to 80%. They will increase worldwide to equalize and, for the first time in many years, bring FAIRNESS TO AMERICA! I will institute a MOST FAVORITE NATION POLICY whereby the United States will pay the same price as the nation paying the lowest price anywhere in the world.''

![](https://m.stacker.news/91337)

Announcement is out!

![](https://m.stacker.news/91276)


https://x.com/Barchart/status/1921089433706635673

Buybacks sustain this bull market—without them, stocks would drop more.

Earnings per Share (EPS) - Non-GAAP:
👉 $0.27 per share
❌ Missed estimates by $0.15 (expected ~$0.42)

Revenue:
👉 $19.34 billion
❌ Missed expectations by $2.07 billion (~$21.41 billion)

![](https://m.stacker.news/88404)

Tesla ($TSLA) Financial Results

Odds he's out this year fall to 14%

![](https://m.stacker.news/88403)

https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1914793909156286957