We're working on changing the system. LMSR version should be out by end of year or early next year!

Yeah we're working on an LMSR version where you have fixed odds when you place a bet, and you'll be able to exit your position if the event outcome looks unlikely (hopefully out by EOY or early next year). We went with the parimutuel system because it was simple to develop, but it's by far not the best for incentivizing early bettors or for long-term event forecasting.

Yeah we didn't expect this many people to actually place a bet, and we also didn't expect all the errors to pop up with sending payouts. Liquidity issues, limits on receiving, pending HTLCs, routes not available, etc. Lightning still has a long way to go because we simply can't repay people if reliability is not guaranteed. When we get the error "invalid lightning address" then it's kind of tough to send a payout to that person.

If you have a pending payout let me know and we can sort it out manually.

Yeah it's our biggest priority besides fundraising—building the LMSR market maker with Bitcoin and Lightning. That market structure would provide much better incentives for accurate forecasting.

Did you receive any payout?

We're paying them out manually as there have been many errors/bugs/pending payments. We can get to yours ASAP.

The potential return of your bet shown in the UI is your potential return at that current moment in time, but that potential return changes based on the odds. We currently use the parimutuel betting system which calculates payouts based on the total amount wagered. You are allocated a reward in proportion to how much you contributed to your side. The actual percentage ROI you would be rewarded varies until the bet resolves, and that percentage ROI is not currently locked in.

We're looking into building a Bitcoin-based LMSR prediction market that enables you to buy/sell shares where you can lock in a fixed percentage return at some moment in time. It's the system most prediction markets use, and it's superior to the parimutuel betting mechanism for forecasting events.

The payout should be sent now.

Hey we're still working through the payouts. We're going through and sending them out manually because there's some errors with recipient inbound liquidity/routing and many pending payments (lots of zeuspay lightning addresses that need to manually receive).

We have a telegram group here: t.me/bitcoinpredictionmarket

You can also email us at hello@birkeland.sh

We should be finished with on-chain payouts by the end of the week. Send me a message if you have any issues.

Payouts are taking a bit longer this time because we already made payouts for people who bet yes on $70k, so we are manually doing payouts for people who bet no on the other choices. You should receive a payout by end of day.

Yes that's how it should work.

Just in case could you send me an on-chain Bitcoin address? You can send it to hello@birkeland.sh if you're uncomfortable with sharing it publicly. We can manually input it there just in case there's a bug with our system.

Thank you! We're working on a more anonymous version to enable private betting (+ selling of shares before event happens for more accurate forecasting) such that you don't reveal your lightning address to everyone.

We're going to keep the markets online until we resolve them and make the payouts.

It's back online now, co-founder was testing some stuff in the backend, accidentally unlisted the topic.

Apologies, for some reason it became unlisted. It is still active though. I'm contacting my co-foudner right now. Here is the link if you are interested in the meantime.

We can always make a payout from a different wallet or node, but it would be nice if we could fix this bug. Albyhub is another potential option, if you're interested in running a self-custodial node in the cloud. It costs a little bit of money, but by paying that price you get self-sovereignty and custody over your own funds.

Any reason why you don't want to try Androi/IOS mobile apps? They're pretty good.

For some reason I can't connect to coinos as a peer. Maybe their node has some special rules or something. I connected and opened a channel to one of their peers, hopefully that helps. Otherwise I think it's something on their side.

Great, I saw your bets. I can open a channel tonight, hopefully that can help.

Yeah I really wish the lightning network had better reliability. It's really not good if more payments fail as the network grows. The devs at lightning labs and other infrastructure providers need to focus on better routing reliability rather than stablecoins if they actually want the Bitcoin-native lightning network to succeed.

The only thing I could suggest is possibly trying wallet of satoshi, zbd wallet, or blink. I know those work, and I bet you could transfer from the coinos wallet to one of those.

Well we do have open channels with mutual peers. Coinos wallet is connected to megalith node, which is connected to us. There's both inbound and outbound liquidity in those channels, so it's strange that the payment failed. I even examined their node and balanced all the channels.

My guess is that the native routing algorithms are pretty shitty so they stop trying to find a route after a few attempts. But, according to your error, have you tried increasing the max fee in your wallet? That might have something to do with it.

Also have you tried possibly using your stacker news wallet? That one works (until Nov 5th I believe).