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Indeed, the markets are looking at oil a lot for two reasons:
- economic growth requires energy and in the global energy mix, oil represents 80% of needs (transport, industry, chemicals, etc.)
- therefore, when the price of oil jumps, this necessarily weighs on prices and therefore inflation.
With the conflict in the Middle East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, around 20% of global oil trade is disrupted. Production has decreased and today stocks are falling. This keeps oil prices at high levels (> $100/bbl).
And this is starting to weigh on inflation. In April, many states saw their inflation rise. As a result, this raises interest rates and therefore lowers the price of bonds.
Afterwards, I don't know how ETFs work to explain why they perform better. Generally, when oil rises, BTC falls (investors prefer to reduce their position in risky assets). ETFs perhaps make it possible to benefit (with a little delay) partially from the volatility of the sectors in which they are invested and are therefore less exposed... but that is only a hypothesis; I don't have enough perspective to say that I'm right.
The latest IEA report estimated that even if the conflict in the Middle East ended in June, oil markets would remain disrupted "well beyond 2026"
It's difficult to predict how the price of a barrel will evolve... but a de-escalation could already bring the price back to around $90/bbl on average over the year, right?
In any case, each day that passes makes the situation worse.
Yesterday Fatih Birol warned that the situation could worsen significantly around August if nothing changes.... the world risks running out of fuel, diesel in particular. In the middle of the holiday period, it will be complicated for families. Prices will inevitably rise further, which is a shame for inflation and the economic growth of States.