chrisliss

Stacker_Sports

Got this from @Undisciplined, and threw some sats down on a few things here: https://beta.predyx.com/category/sports

Love the no-KYC. I post under my own name, so I'm not even trying to hide, but I don't want my email and phone number in yet another security hack. 

Will see how it goes tomorrow when I hopefully have some sats to cash out.

Tried Predyx

About 10 years ago, was with a friend of mine at the Aria in Vegas, went to the sportsbook to have a few cocktails and watch some games we bet on. Usually you had to bet like $40 back then at places to get a free drink ticket, but it was $140 at the Aria! That was pretty steep just for a free drink, but I thought about it and if I bet on the over in a game, and my friend bet on the under, we were guaranteed to push and lose the rake ($14), but we'd get two drink tickets, or $7 a drink for top-shelf booze (plus a $1 tip). So we made a bunch of those and had our cocktails for $8 apiece rather than $20 or whatever they'd charge in cash. Might still work now, though don't know how much you have to bet these days for a drink ticket.

Best Bet In Vegas

Super Bowl Betting Lock

toss/flip -- same thing. Guaranteed loss if you parlay it.

podcasts

Stacker Sports Pod: Episode 70: The Realest Episode- Real talk with the Real Man

Undisciplined

Why Defense Wins Championships

More pressure, but it doesn't seem like it benefits average defenses -- not like we haven't had a lot of overs come in. It's only when the defense can make you rush more than usual that it seems to have an outsized effect. And maybe that's not even the explanation, just that elite defenses have really been the difference almost every time one is in a Super Bowl. There are a couple exceptions: 2008 Steelers over the Cardinals (defense got lit up even though it was elite by most metrics) and the 49ers defense that lost to Mahomes, but it was dominating for 3.5 quarters.

Darnold definitely choked last year in his two big games against the Lions and in the playoffs, but he didn't choke against the Rams this year. And the Pats defense is way worse than the Rams.

I posted earlier about my Seattle -4.5 pick because elite defenses typically overperform the spread in Super Bowls. 

I documented a bunch of them in the post: https://stacker.news/items/1426273 but I never really articulated a plausible reason why that should be the case. 

IOW, if you notice elite defenses tend to cover in Super Bowls, and you have no mechanism to explain it, maybe it's just dumb luck things turned out that way. 

But here's a plausible explanation IMO: 

The Super Bowl is arguably the most scrutinized sporting event in the world. Teams get two full weeks off, and tons of hype builds. Players are always more nervous in the biggest games, and performance tends to suffer somewhat -- think it was Tom Brady who said that, but maybe it was someone else. But whoever it was said the clutch players are those who can maintain closer to their usual calm when everyone else is feeling the pressure in these huge games. 

Offense is about timing. The QB has to time the ball to meet the receiver. Defense is about disrupting timing. Get heat on the QB, he throws to early. Jam the WR, his route is thrown off. If you're facing a top defense that throws off your timing, it's very hard to adjust and be poised under pressure. Basically, the higher the stakes, the higher the nerves and that favors the disruptors over the timers.

HealthAndFitness

Stats are for losers. Just get up and run @Undisciplined

realBitcoinDog

Everyone should do a mile or two a few times a week just to feel the kind of suffering you can't get in front of a computer screen.

Super Bowl LX

Super Bowl 60

I haven’t felt as strongly about a Super Bowl pick since 2014 when the record-setting Peyton Manning Broncos took on the Legion of Boom/peak Russell Wilson Seahawks. Here’s a video of that prediction from 12 years ago.

Super Bowl LX

Patriots +4.5 vs Seahawks (45.5)

Before I looked at the line, I expected it to be about seven. The Seahawks had just beaten a Rams team that’s tough on both sides of the ball and blown out a 49ers team that was competitive all year. The Patriots benefited from the easiest regular season schedule in the league, drew the Chargers who were missing their entire offensive line, the Texans in a weather game where CJ Stoud had five turnovers and the Broncos in another weather game without their starting quarterback. They happen to represent the AFC, but even today, the Bills would be favored against them on a neutral field as would the Broncos with a healthy Bo Nix.

The other trend I’ve documented at length is that elite defenses tend to overperform expectations in the Super Bowl. One can form theories as to why this is, but the examples are overwhelming from the underdog Seahawks crushing Manning’s Broncos to the 2016 Broncos (underdogs) stifling Cam Newton’s 15-1 Panthers to the 2000 Ravens to the 2002 Bucs (underdogs) to the 2020 Bucs who took apart Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Even the Giants two improbable wins over Tom Brady were largely due to a defense (though not highly ranked on the year) that was loaded with edge rushers and playing out of its mind in the playoffs. For whatever reason, if there’s a Super Bowl, and one team has an elite defense, that team tends to win and cover.

But is the Seahawks defense elite? Let’s look at the numbers. Sorted by yards per play, the Seahawks (4.6) were second only to the Broncos (4.5). And they did this despite playing the Rams (6.2 YPP, 1st) twice. The Patriots defense was middle of the pack (5.2 YPP) despite getting the Jets (4.4 YPP, 29th) twice and other bottom-10 offenses like the Browns (32nd), Raiders (31st), Saints (27th), Panthers (26th) and Bucs (24th). And the Texans, who they saw in the playoffs, were 23rd, the Chargers 21st and the Broncos 16th, and that was with Nix, not Jarrett Stidham. Essentially, the Patriots defense is average at best.

On offense, the Patriots were second at 6.2 YPP, but the Seahawks were fourth at 5.9 YPP, and given the disparate competition, I’ll call that a wash. But as I mentioned, for whatever reason in the Super Bowl, even one of the all-time offenses, Peyton Manning’s 55-TD pass Broncos, got smoked by an elite defense. Defense really does seem disproportionately to win championships.

Seahawks 34 - Patriots 19

Australian Open Semis

Two of the better matches I've ever seen, and the second one isn't over. Djokovic saved six break points in the fifth set SO FAR, Sinner was cruising on his serve, and Djokovic just upped his level and broke to go up 4-3. First match was bananas too, even match point was insane.

Untouchable MLB Records

McCarthy To The Steelers Discussion

SEA -4.5

let's do 500 sats (remind me if Seahawks don't cover, and I will send.)

agree -- going to try and find some lines like SEA -13.5 at 3:1 or whatever it would pay

it has recently, but I think the Pats are a weak representative for the AFC, and Seattle is solid

I've been wrong many times, but SEA -4.5 seems like a layup here. Elite defenses overperform the spread in the SB, NE has had no real competition to get there. Might take SEA on some alternative lines too with odds in case of a blowout.