economy

Stacker_Stocks

China ended 2025 with a record trade surplus of US$1.19 trillion.

But the most important detail is in the fine print: exports to the US plummeted 20% during the year.

The route of global trade has changed. Understand the numbers!

![](https://m.stacker.news/126063)


![](https://m.stacker.news/126062)



2️⃣ The American "Hole"

The effect of trade tensions is visible.

In December, Chinese exports to the US fell 30% (the ninth consecutive month of decline).

For the year as a whole, the drop was 20%.

The direct flow between the two superpowers is drying up rapidly.



3️⃣ If the US doesn't buy, who will?

To compensate for the American blockade, China flooded other markets.

In December, Chinese exports rose:
📈 +12% to the European Union
📈 +11% to Southeast Asia (ASEAN)

China is redirecting its "world factory" to its neighbor and to Europe.




4️⃣ Why export so much? (The Internal Crisis)

This record of foreign sales is happening because China's domestic economy is doing poorly.

With the real estate crisis and deflation, Chinese consumers have stopped spending.

Beijing's solution? Export excess production at any cost to keep the factories running.




5️⃣ The Global Alert

Economists are already warning: this Chinese surplus could be "as destructive as Trump's tariffs."

The reason: China is exporting its deflation. By flooding the world with cheap products, it puts pressure on local industries in other countries, which may react with protectionism.





6️⃣ Strategic Commodities

Two data points stand out in the report:


1️⃣ Rare Earths: China increased its exports of these critical minerals by 32% in December.

2️⃣ Soybeans: Even with the tension, they purchased 111 million tons in 2025 (+6.5%), fulfilling part of the truce with Trump.




7️⃣ "Decoupling" is happening in practice.

The US has managed to reduce its dependence on China (-20%), but Beijing has responded by further dominating trade with the rest of the world.

The $1.2 trillion surplus shows that the Chinese export machine is far from stopping.

China hits record surplus ($1.2 trillion) while "decoupling" from the US.

Apple and Google: "If you can't beat them, rent their AI"
The historic rivalry has taken a break for profit.


Apple confirmed today that the brain of the new Siri will be Google Gemini. It admitted that the rival's technology is "the most capable" and decided to pay to use it, rather than continue losing the race.

For OpenAI, it's a disaster: ChatGPT lost its spot on the world's most valuable screen.

Understand the trillion-dollar game!

![](https://m.stacker.news/125874)



2️⃣ The Agreement

Apple today confirmed a multi-year partnership with Google.

The new "Apple Foundation Models" will use the Gemini infrastructure and models.

Basically: the AI brain in the iPhone will be Google's, not ChatGPT's.




3️⃣ The Loss of the "Most Valuable Screen"

OpenAI lost the world's most coveted asset: the iPhone's home screen.

While Gemini will be native and accessible by voice at any time, ChatGPT remains "just another app" that the user needs to download and remember to open.

The friction barrier is now enormous for OpenAI.




4️⃣ The Humiliating "Endorsement"

Apple's statement was a hard blow to the reputation of the competition.

In the statement, the company said:

"After careful evaluation, we have determined that Google's technology provides the most capable foundation..."

Apple publicly validated that, for them, Gemini is superior, scalable, and more reliable than GPT.





5️⃣ The Privacy Factor (New)
The scam is also corporate.

It is speculated that Apple preferred Google's architecture for compliance and data security reasons.

If this narrative holds up, OpenAI will have difficulty closing "Enterprise" contracts with large companies, which tend to blindly follow Apple's security standards.





6️⃣ Strategic Isolation (New)
The chessboard landscape has changed:

👑 Google: Dominates Android (their own) and now AI on iOS (via partnership). Controls almost 100% of the global mobile market.

⚠️ OpenAI: Cornered, without its own operating system.

This explains the rumors of Sam Altman seeking Jony Ive to create urgent hardware. Without a device, they became hostages.





7️⃣ The Game Changer

Until 2024, Google was seen as the "sleeping giant."

Today, the game has changed.

With Gemini 3, TPUs, and this deal, Google surpassed Apple in market value last week, reaching $4 trillion.





8️⃣ Where Did Apple Go Wrong?

Apple implicitly admitted that it fell behind. It had to "rent" the brains of its biggest rival because it couldn't develop something proprietary in time.

It's an admission of technological defeat, but a victory of pragmatism for the shareholder.





9️⃣ The Risk of the "Black Box" OpenAI
Here's the real danger.

OpenAI is not publicly traded, so no one has access to its real financial numbers.

What we do know is frightening:

• Hidden Debt: The company has investment commitments totaling trillions of dollars (estimated at US$1.4 trillion over 8 years).

• User Exodus: ChatGPT lost about 20% of its market share in just 12 months.

If OpenAI goes bankrupt due to lack of cash, the default could generate a systemic shock in the chip and cloud industry.

Apple and Google: If you can't beat them, rent their AI for profit. Together now

The declared war between Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve reached its peak this Sunday.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) sent subpoenas to the Fed and is criminally investigating its chairman, Jerome Powell.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125814)

![](https://m.stacker.news/125815)



2️⃣ The Official Accusation

Led by prosecutor Jeanine Pirro (a Trump ally), the investigation is looking into whether Powell lied to Congress last June.

The alleged reason? The costs of renovating the Fed headquarters. Trump says it will cost $4.1 billion.

Powell and the Fed maintain it's $2.5 billion and is within the budget.

But nobody in the market believes it's solely because of a renovation.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125816)




3️⃣ The Real Reason: The Interest Rate War

Analysts and Powell himself point out that the investigation is an explicit political retaliation.

For months, Trump has demanded aggressive interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. Powell has refused to comply, maintaining a technical stance of waiting for economic data.

Trump has lost patience.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125817)



4️⃣ Powell's Response

Breaking all Fed protocol of silence, Powell issued an explosive statement linking his potential arrest to his refusal to yield to Trump:

"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the President's preferences."




5️⃣ The Coordinated Attack

This is not an isolated case. The Trump administration has already tried to remove the Fed governor, Lisa Cook, under allegations of fraud.

The move is interpreted on Wall Street as a broad effort to decapitate the current leadership of the Central Bank and install figures loyal to the executive branch.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125818)




6️⃣ Market Reaction: Flight to Safe Haven

The market seeks safe-haven assets and punishes American risk:

- Safe Haven Assets on the Rise: Gold (+1.75%) and Silver (+4.17%) surge. Bitcoin (+0.87%) and Solana (+4.05%) also rise.

- Weakened Dollar: The Dollar Index (DXY) falls to 98.700 (-0.19%), signaling a loss of confidence in the currency.

- US Stock Markets in the Red: S&P 500 futures (-0.45%) and Nasdaq (-0.68%).

![](https://m.stacker.news/125819)

![](https://m.stacker.news/125820)

![](https://m.stacker.news/125821)

![](https://m.stacker.news/125822)

DOJ OPENS CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION AGAINST JEROME POWELL 🇺🇸

econ

Data from the 3rd quarter of 2025 confirms the economic turnaround in the capital.

Poverty has fallen drastically and the middle class has started to grow again.

The reality check in the newly released figures!

![](https://m.stacker.news/125623)



1️⃣ Brutal Drop in Poverty

According to the Buenos Aires Institute of Statistics, the poverty rate fell from 28.1% (in the same period of the previous year) to 17.3% in the third quarter of 2025.

In two years, more than 10 percentage points of the population left the poverty line.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125624)



2️⃣ End of Mass Indigence

The most impactful data concerns extreme poverty (indigence).

The rate has halved, falling from 11.0% to 5.3% in the same period.

According to the methodology, this means that many more people are now able to afford a basic food basket.




3️⃣ The Reason: Salary > Inflation

It wasn't magic, it was real gain.

Research indicates that the improvement is due to income (salaries and pensions) growing at a rate higher than inflation.

For the first time in a long time, an Argentinian's money is worth more at the end of the month than at the beginning.




4️⃣ Purchasing Power

The numbers don't lie:

📈 Average family income rose 69.3%.

📉 The city's inflation (CPI) was 37.7%.

In other words: the increase in income was 31.6 percentage points higher than the increase in prices.

This is the fourth consecutive year-on-year decrease in poverty.




5️⃣ The Return of the Middle Class

With stabilization, social mobility returned.

The number of households considered middle class grew by 19 percentage points, reaching 51.4% of homes in Buenos Aires.

The middle class once again became the absolute majority in the capital.




6️⃣ The Milei Effect

Data for 2025 consolidates the results of economic reforms that brought the country risk down to its lowest level in 7 years.

By controlling inflation and allowing wages to recover, the real economy began to react.





7️⃣ Conclusion

While many predicted social chaos with the fiscal adjustment, the data from Buenos Aires show the opposite: the reduction in inflation was the greatest social program possible.

ARGENTINA: POVERTY PLUMMETS IN BUENOS AIRES

Politics_And_Law

Previously, the West feared extremism from the Middle East.

Today, the tables have turned!

The United Arab Emirates cut funding for students in the United Kingdom for a surreal reason:

fear that their young people will be radicalized in British universities. Check this out!

![](https://m.stacker.news/125487)

![](https://m.stacker.news/125488)



1️⃣ The Education Boycott

The United Arab Emirates government has drastically restricted funding for citizens wishing to study in the United Kingdom.

In June, the Ministry of Education published a list of universities approved for scholarships:

The USA, France, Australia, and even Israel (!) are on it; the United Kingdom was left out.




2️⃣ The Numbers Don't Lie

The impact has already been observed.

The number of student visas granted to Emiratis for the United Kingdom has plummeted.

In the year ending September 2025, there were only 213 visas—a 55% drop compared to 2022. The graph shows the collapse.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125489)




3️⃣ "We don't want our children radicalized"

When British officials questioned whether the exclusion from the list was a mistake, Abu Dhabi's response was curt: "It wasn't an oversight."

According to a source close to the discussions: "The Emirates don't want their children to be radicalized on British campuses."





4️⃣ The Muslim Brotherhood Factor

The root of the problem is political.

The UAE considers the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization and an existential threat.

The United Kingdom, on the other hand, refuses to ban the group.

The British government says it defends "academic freedom," but for Arabs, the English university environment has become fertile ground for political Islam.





5️⃣The Burden of War in Gaza

Tensions have increased with the Israel-Hamas war.

Pro-Palestinian protests and encampments at British universities (seen as hotbeds of Islamic unrest) have alarmed the Gulf monarchies, which maintain tight control over religious dissent at home.




6️⃣ Worthless Diploma?

The measure is brutal: in addition to cutting funding, the UAE has stated that it will not recognize diplomas from institutions not on the accredited list.

In other words: even if a wealthy Emirati pays out of pocket to study at Oxford or Cambridge, their diploma may be worthless upon returning home.




7️⃣ Fractured Relationship

It's not just about education. The UK-UAE relationship is strained on several fronts:
❌ The UK blocked the UAE's purchase of the Daily Telegraph newspaper.
❌ The Premier League sued Manchester City (owned by Abu Dhabi).
❌ Accusations about the UAE's role in the Sudanese war.






8️⃣ The irony is interesting.

A modern Arab monarchy is now isolating the United Kingdom for deeming its universities "dangerous" and too permissive of religious extremism.

The Gulf is saying: "We control radicalism here. You in Europe have lost control."





9️⃣ Understanding Geopolitics

The Gulf is becoming increasingly assertive and less dependent on the West.

INVERTED WORLD 🇦🇪🇬🇧

After 25 years of drama, the bloc's ambassadors have given the green light. France tried to block it, but was overruled by the majority.

Ursula von der Leyen is expected to sign the treaty on Monday. Understand the behind-the-scenes details!




1️⃣ The Wait Is Over
After more than two decades of negotiations (which began in 1999), the countries of the European Union provisionally approved the trade agreement with Mercosur this Friday.





2️⃣ The central objective is ambitious: to eliminate import tariffs on 91% of goods traded between the two blocs within 10 years.

For Brazilian industry, this means buying European machinery and supplies without import tax, increasing competitiveness.





3️⃣ What Gets Cheaper?

For the end consumer, the promise is lower prices on high value-added products:

🍷 Wines and Sparkling Wines
🧀 Cheeses and Dairy Products
🍫 Fine Chocolates
🚗 Imported Cars

These items currently pay high tariffs to enter Brazil and will see a gradual reduction.




4️⃣ Luxury and Electric Cars
The automotive sector has special rules. The 35% tariff on European cars will gradually decrease over 15 years.

For electric vehicles, the protection is greater: the elimination of the tariff will take up to 18 years, a safeguard to prevent the nascent Mercosur industry from being overwhelmed.





5️⃣ Agricultural Quotas (Where the Problem Lies)
Brazil will not be able to export everything it wants.

To appease French farmers, limited quotas with zero or reduced tariffs were created:
🥩 Beef: Extra quota of 99,000 tons (7.5% tariff).
🐔 Chicken: 180,000 tons without tariff.
🍬 Sugar: 180,000 tons without tariff.
⛽ Ethanol: 450,000 tons for industry (tax-free).




6️⃣ The New Feature: "Emergency Brake"

To unlock the agreement, the Europeans included a strict safeguard clause.

If there is a sudden increase in imports that causes a variation of just 5% in local prices or volumes (previously the trigger was 8%), the EU can immediately block the entry of Mercosur products.




7️⃣ Coffee and Fruits: Clear Path
While meats face restrictions, other sectors of Brazilian agribusiness have received the "golden ticket."

☕ Roasted and instant coffee
🍇 Fresh fruits (grapes, melons, lemons)
🥤 Orange juice

These products will have tariffs eliminated, with no quota limit, facilitating their entry onto European shelves.





8️⃣ France's Defeat
The approval occurred despite strong opposition led by France.

President Emmanuel Macron campaigned against it, claiming that the economic benefits would be "limited" and that the agreement harms French farmers by exposing them to South American competition. It wasn't enough.





9️⃣ Who voted against?

Macron wasn't alone, but he couldn't form a blocking minority. Ireland, Hungary, and Poland joined France in voting "No".

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris stated that he did not support the agreement "as it was presented," but the bloc reached the necessary qualified majority (15 countries and 65% of the population).




🔟 The Tipping Point: Italy 🇮🇹
The game-changer came from Rome.

Italy, which had doubts, signaled decisive support at the ambassadors' meeting.

Giorgia Meloni's government negotiated hard: it accepted the agreement after the European Commission promised to accelerate the release of 45 billion euros for farmers and increase resources for the Italian sector.




1️⃣1️⃣ Signing on Monday
With the ambassadors' approval, the path is clear.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is scheduled to travel to Paraguay to officially sign the treaty next Monday, the 12th.





1️⃣2️⃣ The Economic Impact
The treaty creates the world's largest free trade area.

For Brazil, it means easier access to a market of 451 million consumers, with a gradual reduction in tariffs for agribusiness and national industry.




1️⃣3️⃣ French protectionism lost to economic pragmatism (and to the subsidies given to Italy).

The signing is a geopolitical milestone, but the final battle will be ratification in parliaments.

For now, Mercosur celebrates.

European Union approves agreement with Mercosur!

Protests against the regime erupted tonight in over 100 cities. The situation is out of control.

Trump just issued a final warning: "We will hit the Islamic Regime VERY HARD if they continue killing people in the streets."

Government buildings stormed, armored vehicles ablaze, and police retreating. This is, without a doubt, the most intense night yet!

![](https://m.stacker.news/125310)



2️⃣ Ahvaz: Images from now. Protesters have launched a coordinated offensive and are pushing back the security forces of the Islamic regime. Control of the streets is being fought meter by meter.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125311)



3️⃣ Tehran: The capital is under siege. Crowds are burning vehicles and motorcycles belonging to the repressive forces. Fear seems to have vanished from the streets of Tehran tonight.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125312)



4️⃣ Dezful: Massive protests have erupted in the southwest of the country. The regime is facing logistical problems: security forces are "stretched to the limit," unable to contain simultaneous uprisings in more than 100 cities.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125313)




5️⃣ Direct Confrontation: In Tehran, protesters attacked a large police convoy. Reports and images show officers being disarmed, beaten, and their vehicles set on fire by the crowd.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125314)



6️⃣ Qom: In the country's 7th largest city and religious center, thousands of Iranian women are leading the protests. Their courage directly challenges the ideological heart of the regime.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125315)



7️⃣ Forbidden Symbols: In some cities, protesters took over the city center. The "Lion and Sun" flag (pre-revolution) was raised to shouts of "Long live the Shah." A total rejection of the Islamic Republic.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125316)



8️⃣ Mashhad: The city came to a standstill. Protesters completely blocked the busiest highway, creating a total gridlock and preventing the movement of police reinforcements.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125317)



9️⃣ Karaj: The crackdown has escalated. Videos show security forces opening fire with live ammunition against unarmed protesters in Karaj.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125318)



🔟 The Heart of Power: Once again in Tehran, the crowd has reached Pirouzi Street and is just meters from the Central Command Headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). They are surrounding the military nerve center of the capital.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125319)



1️⃣1️⃣ Isfahan: Symbolic targets are falling. Protesters set fire to the state radio and television building. Control of the official narrative is being physically attacked.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125320)



1️⃣2️⃣ Collapse: Protests spread like wildfire. With outbreaks across the country, regime forces are under immense pressure and, in many places, are simply unable to react anymore.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125321)



1️⃣3️⃣ Green Light to Kill: Reports of intense shootings in multiple cities. All indications are that security forces have been ordered to use maximum lethal force in a desperate attempt to contain the collapse.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125322)

Iran is on fire.

The market reaction doesn't lie. The response to the American intervention resulted in one of the biggest gains in history.

The Caracas Stock Exchange surged +50% today alone!

The reason? Trump warned who's in charge now!

![](https://m.stacker.news/125025)

![](https://m.stacker.news/125026)



The "Freedom Rally"

The numbers are insane.
Since December 23rd, when the pressure increased, the Venezuelan stock market has accumulated a gain of +148%.

Basically, those who bet on the fall of the regime more than doubled their capital in two weeks.

The market is pricing in a "total reform".

![](https://m.stacker.news/125027)




"I am innocent"

The Chavista era is ending. Maduro appeared yesterday in federal court in NY wearing a prison uniform and handcuffs.

To the judge, he declared himself "innocent" of all charges and shouted that he was a "prisoner of war" and still "president".

He remains imprisoned at MDC Brooklyn.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125028)




Who's in charge? "ME."

While Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, tries to establish herself as "interim president," NBC asked Trump who really governs Venezuela now.

The answer was one word: "Me."

Trump listed his intervention team (Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth) and bypassed any formalities.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125029)




The Warning to Delcy

Trump was clear about the future of Maduro's successor.

He said the US will "run" the country until a sensible transition and warned: if Delcy doesn't cooperate and "do the right thing," she will "pay a much higher price" than Maduro paid.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125030)




Why did the stock market explode?

First, the context: the Caracas Stock Exchange was a ghost market. It was abandoned, without volume, under sanctions, and ignored by the world.

The shock of "Trump in command" resurrected the assets.

The investor now projects:

✅ Dollarization of the economy;

✅ Asset protection via military force;

✅ End of expropriations;

✅ Market opening.

It's the purchase of reconstruction.

![](https://m.stacker.news/125031)




Politics discusses narratives.

The market anticipates the future.

And the future the market sees is a Venezuela rebuilt under American tutelage.

Venezuela's stock market soars +73% after Maduro's fall! 🇻🇪

The British magazine didn't hold back in its criticism: it labeled Lula "incoherent abroad," "unpopular at home," and openly advocated that he not run for reelection.

The text states that Brazil has become "geopolitically inert" and draws a cruel parallel with the end of Joe Biden's presidency!

![](https://m.stacker.news/124928)



The Parallel with Biden

The magazine was surgical in its comparison. It pointed out that Lula is only one year younger than Joe Biden was when his campaign collapsed in the US.

The warning: insisting on 2026 could end "disastrously." According to the publication, Lula should follow the Democratic example and pass the baton.



"Hostile to the West"

According to the publication, Lula's automatic alignment with dictatorships makes Brazil seem "increasingly hostile to the West."

The magazine cites Itamaraty's condemnation of the attacks against Iran (while democracies supported or remained silent) as proof of this ideological "sympathy" that isolates the country.



Economy: "Mediocre Policy"

Even while acknowledging GDP growth, the magazine doesn't applaud it. It classifies the administration as a result of "mediocre economic policies."

The diagnosis is that growth is based on income transfers and increased tax revenue that is "unfriendly to business," and not on real productivity.



The Trump Factor: Total Isolation

An alarming fact: Brazil is the "largest economy whose leader has not shaken hands with the President of the United States."

While Lula courts Xi Jinping and Putin, the bridge with Washington is broken.

The magazine's final advice was a slap in the face: "Lula should stop pretending he matters [in wars] and focus on more immediate issues."




Conclusion: The message got through

Right or wrong, The Economist is still followed globally by many important people.

When the magazine says that Brazil is hostile to the West and suggests that the president step down due to cognitive/political risks, the country's image abroad suffers a new blow.

"STOP PRETENDING": The Economist slams Lula and suggests he GIVE UP on 2026.

The commodity has risen an impressive +175% in 2025, on track to close eight consecutive months of gains—something unprecedented since 1980.

But what explains an "old" metal humiliating Bitcoin and the stock market? The answer involves a collapse of inventories in London and China, and a brutal shift in the flow of global money.

Understand this historic movement in detail!
![](https://m.stacker.news/123762)



1️⃣ The "Great Divergence": Real Assets vs. Paper Assets

2025 marked the end of traditional correlation. While the S&P 500 had a good year (+17%), metals soared: Gold rose 4x more (+72%) and Silver 10x more (+174%).

Together, they added US$16 trillion in value.

This is not just speculation; it's the global market repricing the value of "tangible assets".
![](https://m.stacker.news/123763)



2️⃣ The Dollar and the "Trump Factor" (Negative Real Interest Rates)
The first key factor is the macroeconomic trigger.

The dollar had already depreciated by 9% this year, but the perception of weakening was accelerated by Trump's speech on December 12th. By asking for interest rates of "1% or less," he signaled a future of negative real interest rates.

If inflation is 3% and interest rates are 1%, those who leave money in the bank lose purchasing power. The only way out is to buy real assets (such as silver), which has risen 41% this month alone, anticipating this scenario.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123764)




3️⃣ The Flight from Government Bonds

Normally, when the Fed cuts interest rates, Treasury bonds appreciate. In 2025, the opposite occurred: the long-term Treasury bond ETF ($TLT) fell -12%.

The reason? Fiscal risk and long-term inflation expectations. The market demands a higher risk premium to finance the exploding US debt.

Investors know that the Fed controls the short term, but fiscal risk dictates the long term. Capital fled from bonds to metals.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123765)




4️⃣ China's "Hidden" Strategy (Demand Factor)

It's not just private investors rushing into metals; China is leading the game, but quietly.

Officially, they reported purchasing 24 tons.

Goldman Sachs estimates the real volume at 240 tons (10 times more).

They use the London over-the-counter (OTC) market to accumulate "off the radar." While the market flees from bonds, China flees from the dollar.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123766)




5️⃣ The Supply Shock (Part 1): The Great Wall of China

Beyond the macro trigger and demand, starting January 1st, China will block unlicensed silver exports for several reasons:

Solar War: By blocking exports, they guarantee domestic supply and stifle Western competition.

De-dollarization: Exchanging dollar reserves for real assets.

As a result, a total price disconnection. In Shanghai, silver trades at a premium of ~US$5/oz over the rest of the world. China intentionally pays more to "dry up" global supply.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123767)




6️⃣ Panic in London: The Domino Effect

The Chinese "vacuum cleaner" dried up the global market, and the shock reached London. Today, buyers are paying a 7% premium to receive the silver NOW instead of waiting a year.

This is Backwardation. Under normal conditions, the future is more expensive (storage costs, interest). When the spot price explodes, it's the ultimate sign of physical scarcity: nobody wants promises, everyone wants the metal in their hand.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123768)




7️⃣ The Largest Money Flow in History

Institutional fear of missing out (FOMO) is in full swing.

Gold and silver funds have seen net inflows of $34.2 billion in just the last 10 weeks — the largest flow ever recorded.

The money isn't just "investing"; it's fleeing.

It's the largest outflow from fiat currencies to real assets ever recorded.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123769)




8️⃣ Bitcoin loses its "Digital Gold" shine

The thesis that Bitcoin would replace gold failed in 2025. While silver rose 174%, Bitcoin fell -5.5%.

In times of real uncertainty and manipulated interest rates, the market opted for the age-old security of physical metal instead of digital volatility.

Capital migrated from cryptocurrencies to commodities.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123770)




9️⃣ The Collapse of Ratios (Bitcoin vs. Silver)
To understand the gravity of the situation, let's look at the "Ratios" (how many ounces of silver 1 Bitcoin buys):

The BTC/Silver ratio has plummeted -67% since May. In other words: Bitcoin's purchasing power, when measured in Silver, has collapsed.

Those who held Bitcoin became "poorer" in terms of real assets than those who held Silver. The market is repricing what the true store of value is now.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123771)




10 Conclusion: The Perfect Storm

We are experiencing a rare macroeconomic alignment:

1- Monetary policy forcing interest rates to zero (Trump).

2- Proven physical scarcity (premiums in London and Shanghai).

3- Distrust in public debt (fall in bonds).

The lesson for 2025 is harsh: paper and digital assets are losing out to real assets.

SILVER: THE GREATEST RALLY SINCE 1979!

A new WSJ report exposes the dragon's glaring fracture. The country is racing to catch up with the US in chips and AI, but is funding this by draining resources from the population and creating a trillion-dollar debt.

It's not a question of imminent collapse, it's a choice of priorities: "We will have the best technology, whatever the cost to the people."

See some bizarre stories from the most complex country in the world!
![](https://m.stacker.news/123401)




2️⃣ The "Cyberpunk" Scenario (Cutting-Edge Technology vs. Stagnant Life)

China is currently experiencing an economic dystopia:

• At the top: the government has infinite resources to launch the world's most modern aircraft carrier and AIs (DeepSeek) that rival Silicon Valley.

• At the bottom: the middle class sees its main savings (real estate) turn to dust.

The State channels all wealth into the "industry of the future," leaving the present (consumption and services) adrift.





3️⃣ The Black Hole: Deflation

While the world struggles with inflation, China has fallen into the opposite: deflation.

Prices have been falling for more than 37 consecutive months.

Factories are charging less and less because there is oversupply. The reason?

🏠 Real Estate: Prices have fallen 17% since the pandemic. As 70% of Chinese families' assets are in this sector, the "wealth effect" has evaporated.

The Chinese feel poorer and tighten their purse strings, hindering the circulation of money in retail.




4️⃣ The Mountain of Waste (The Case of EVs)

Beijing's order is political, not economic.

The government mandated leadership in the electric car sector, generating a flood of blind capital:

🚗 The Fact: In 2023, there were 129 EV brands in China.

📉 The Reality: The consulting firm AlixPartners projects that only 15 will be viable by 2030.

The rest is capital burned in suicidal price wars, financed by public debt.





5️⃣ The "EV Graveyards" (The Subsidy Fraud)

The market obeyed the order in the worst way: creating phantom supply.

Satellite images revealed gigantic fields with thousands of brand-new EVs abandoned and rotting.

Why? To defraud the subsidy.

Car manufacturers produced cars, "sold" them to shell companies, pocketed the government money, and left the car in the bush.

Of the ~500 brands that emerged in 2019, most have already disappeared.





6️⃣ "Zombie Companies" (The NIO Case)

The WSJ highlights the EV manufacturer NIO as the symbol of this model.

Between 2020 and 2024, NIO had losses of US$10 billion. In a normal market, it would have gone bankrupt. In China, state-owned companies injected another US$1 billion to save the operation.

The government prefers to artificially keep loss-making companies alive at the expense of the population rather than admit market consolidation, generating global excess capacity.




7️⃣ The Human Cost (The Mianchi Case)

The most didactic example of distortion: Mianchi, a rural county, decided to act as a state-owned "Venture Capital":

- They increased spending on Tech by 50% to buy stakes in chip factories and create robotics parks.

- But the city's revenue fell by 10%.

As a consequence, the money ran out.

The local government defaulted on the salaries of teachers and garbage collectors to continue funding the tech startups.



8️⃣ The "Big Fund" (Chips) Corruption

Recent success in chips came despite corruption.

The "Big Fund" (state semiconductor fund) received US$50 billion to invest.

The result? In 2022, the government arrested the head of the fund and several executives.

They used the money to inflate the stock prices of friends and invest in shell companies, not in R&D.

Billions evaporated before the government cleaned house and focused on SMIC, the country's largest chip manufacturer.




9️⃣ The Employment Dilemma (Tech doesn't employ the masses)

The government focuses on "High-Quality Productive Forces," but these sectors generate a social problem:

• SMIC (Chips): ~20,000 employees.

• UBTech (Robots): ~2,000 employees.

Meanwhile, in addition to the impaired income factor (as mentioned in tweet 3), 1 in 6 young people in cities are unemployed. Robot factories do not generate jobs for millions of recent graduates.




🔟 Solar Panels: The Toxic Excess

China currently produces twice as many solar panels as the entire world can install.

This has created such a brutal price war that leading companies in the sector (like Longi) have seen their profits plummet.

They built factories to meet a demand that doesn't exist, just to meet local GDP targets and maintain artificial jobs.



1️⃣1️⃣ Echoes of the Past (Mao vs. Xi)

The article draws a historical parallel.

In the 1950s, Mao Zedong ordered the country to obsessively focus on steel production, neglecting agriculture.

The result was famine, with much useless steel production (even today).

Now, Xi Jinping obsessively focuses on chips and AI, neglecting household consumption.

Resources are greater today, but the logic of "political will over economic efficiency" remains the same.




1️⃣2️⃣ The Other Side: The Price of Sovereignty

Despite inefficiency and waste, China is closing the gap with the US. By throwing trillions at the problem, they are forcing evolution through force.

If China reaches the Moon in 2030 (as planned), masters AI, and has the only space station in orbit, all this social and financial cost will guarantee complete sovereignty for the second half of the 21st century.

It's a very long-term gamble.




1️⃣3️⃣ The Final Logic: Security > Economy

Why persist in error?

Because Xi's priority is not GDP, it's National Security.

China accepts doubling its debt (which has reached US$23 trillion) and having internal inefficiency, as long as it guarantees that the US cannot "shut down" its economy with sanctions.

It's the price of insurance against the West.




China is exporting its crisis: lacking domestic consumption, it floods the world with cheap products (deflationary exports), affecting global industries and commodities.




China risks its real economy in a bold bet to secure technological supremacy now

The choice of the next head of the US Federal Reserve involves revenge, "betrayals" at the Treasury, and a 1% interest rate target.

If you have money invested, you need to understand this.

This decision could define the value of everything from 2026 onwards!
![](https://m.stacker.news/123246)



2️⃣ Why does this matter?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the world's "money printing machine." It sets the interest rate.

• If it cuts too much, inflation returns and destroys purchasing power.

• High Interest Rates: Attract Dollars (currency strengthens).

• Low Interest Rates (1%): Money flees to seek returns elsewhere. The Dollar falls and inflation returns.

• The Risk: Trump has signaled that he wants to cut interest rates to 1% (crisis level). Whoever takes over will have to decide between obeying the president or protecting the currency.




3️⃣ The Resentment Factor

The motivation is personal. Trump has harbored a "burning resentment" over the choice of Jerome Powell for eight years, blaming former Secretary Steven Mnuchin for the nomination.

To avoid repeating the "mistake" of having a president who is slow to make decisions, the rule has changed: according to the WSJ, he demands to be consulted personally on interest rate decisions, eliminating the total autonomy of the past.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123247)




4️⃣ The Wall Street Candidate: Kevin Warsh

Former Fed director and former Morgan Stanley banker. He is the investors' favorite.

Knowing that Trump detests weakness, Warsh has recently changed his tune.

At private dinners, he has said: "If the president wants someone who is weak, I won't get the job."

He is trying to prove that he can be loyal without being a puppet.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123248)




5️⃣ The Loyal Candidate: Kevin Hassett

Longtime economic advisor to Trump and Ph.D.
He attacks Warsh (who is a lawyer) saying that the Fed needs "academic weight" to avoid being manipulated.

The WSJ says that Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan) privately warned that Hassett would cut interest rates too quickly just to please Trump, destroying the bank's credibility.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123249)




6️⃣ Cold War at the Treasury

This dispute has put Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a difficult position.

His longtime mentor, Stanley Druckenmiller, is working behind the scenes in favor of Warsh.

However, Bessent is forced to defend Hassett publicly to prove loyalty to Trump, contradicting his market-oriented "godfather."
![](https://m.stacker.news/123250)




7️⃣ The 3rd Way: Christopher Waller (The Technician)

Current director of the Fed and the choice of 81% of executives in NY, according to research.

He has become the deciding factor. He pleases the political establishment by blocking the Digital Dollar (CBDC) and climate change ("anti-woke") agendas, but maintains the technical confidence of Wall Street to manage the economy without recklessness.

However, his chances are low.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123251)





8️⃣ The Final Condition

Richard Fisher (former Fed chairman) summarized the reality of this choice to the WSJ: "I don't think you get this job unless you've made some promise to Trump."

Whoever is chosen will enter the room with the mission of delivering low interest rates under total surveillance.




9️⃣ Possible Scenarios

The market should react in different ways depending on the winner:

• Hassett Scenario: Total obedience. Interest rates fall rapidly now, but the risk of inflation skyrockets in the long term. Long-term interest rates remain under pressure.

• Warsh Scenario: Initial euphoria on Wall Street, followed by constant tension if he refuses to cut interest rates at the speed Trump wants.

• Waller Scenario: The pragmatic solution. Less political noise, more technical analysis. However, less likely.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123254)


Fed succession turns into open conflict between Wall Street and Trump’s circle.

Forget the fight for first place.

Musk broke the global wealth scale.

With today's decision, he opened a $500 billion lead over the runner-up (Larry Page).

To give you an idea: the difference between him and second place is greater than the market value of Samsung or Exxon Mobil.

Understand the synchronicity of victories that caused this!
![](https://m.stacker.news/123022)



2️⃣ The First Engine: The Tesla Victory (US$139 Billion)

The Delaware Supreme Court reversed the previous decision and reinstated Musk's 2018 compensation package.

In practice, they returned to him stock options that are now worth approximately US$139 billion.

The court considered that annulling the payment previously was "improper and unfair."

His control and return over the automaker is guaranteed.
![](https://m.stacker.news/123023)



3️⃣ Engine 2: SpaceX Worth $800 Billion

While Tesla was settling in court, SpaceX is settling through growth.

The company announced an internal share buyback that doubled the share price (to $421) and raised the company's valuation to $800 billion.

SpaceX is now the most valuable private company in the world, surpassing OpenAI (valued at $500 billion).
![](https://m.stacker.news/123024)



4️⃣ SpaceX IPO in 2026?

An internal letter obtained by the press revealed the plans:

SpaceX is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) as early as next year.

The company's CFO, Bret Johnsen, cited ambitious plans for the capital raised:

🛰️ "Insane" flight rate for Starship.

💻 Artificial Intelligence Data Centers in space.

🌕 Lunar base (Moonbase Alpha).



5️⃣ The Value Machine

Musk isn't just riding the EV wave.

With SpaceX dominating defense contracts (Pentagon/NASA) and Starlink controlling satellite internet, he has created a global critical infrastructure empire.

If SpaceX's IPO goes through, it will be one of the largest listings in financial market history.



The market is not only betting on companies, it is betting on the central figure who controls energy, information and space transportation.

Elon Musk hits $749B, now worth 3x more than the second-richest investor

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates today, and many believe it could flood the market with TRILLIONS of dollars, causing global assets to plummet.

But the numbers tell a very different story.


Let's look at the facts.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) moved away from negative interest rates in 2024 and is now close to 0.75%, with the market projecting something between 1.25% and 1.50% by 2026.

This is no surprise.

This trajectory has been priced in for months.
![](https://m.stacker.news/122895)


If this scenario were truly explosive, the first place to show stress would be the exchange rate.

But the USD/JPY remains above 150, near decade highs.

No abrupt appreciation of the yen.
No need to panic.
![](https://m.stacker.news/122896)



Now for the key point.

For years, Japan has financed the world via carry trade (taking on debt in JPY at 0% interest and investing in USD, receiving 4%+).

If the carry trade were being dismantled, the JPY would be appreciating rapidly.

This simply isn't happening.

The market doesn't unwind trillions in silence.



Another overlooked fact:
Japanese inflation has been above 3% since 2022.
This is nothing new.
It has already peaked at 4%.
Companies, wages, and expectations have already adjusted.

This is not a new inflationary shock.
![](https://m.stacker.news/122898)



Furthermore, inflation is part of the solution.

After decades of near-zero nominal growth, inflation of 2%–3% is what allows for:

• nominal GDP growth
• gradual debt dilution
• monetary normalization
Deflation never solved the Japanese problem.

![](https://m.stacker.news/122899)



Speaking of debt:
Yes, Japan's public debt is enormous, above 230% of GDP.

But:
• more than 90% is domestic
• Japan maintains a positive current account balance of ~4% of GDP

This allows time and flexibility.
![](https://m.stacker.news/122900)



What if something gets out of control?

The BoJ still has the biggest emergency button on the planet.

It can buy back JGBs immediately.

It's done it before.
The market knows this.

That's why there's no stress on the curve.



Moreover, the Japanese economy has failed for 20 years. So this inflation is very welcome to them.
![](https://m.stacker.news/122901)




Summary in numbers:
• Interest rates rising gradually and priced in
• Inflation above 3% for 3 years
• USDJPY showing no sign of panic
• Carry trade still active
• BoJ with intact tools
The real risk is not Japan.
It's the unexpected.

And that, for now, hasn't materialized.


Japan raises rates — but panic over “trillions” doesn’t match the data

The "Holy Grail" of the private market is going public.

In an internal memo obtained by the WSJ, SpaceX's CFO informed employees that Elon Musk's space company is preparing to go public in 2026.

The suggested valuation doubles its value in a few months.

The reason? Mars and AI in space!

![](https://m.stacker.news/121948)



2️⃣ CFO Memo

Bret Johnsen (CFO) sent a message to employees this Friday: "If we execute brilliantly and the markets cooperate," the IPO will happen next year (2026).

The internal share price jumped to US$421, which puts SpaceX's valuation at US$800 billion (R$4.8 trillion).

For context: this is almost double the US$400 billion valuation at the beginning of this year.





3️⃣ Why now?

Elon Musk always said he would only do an IPO when flights to Mars became routine.

But that ambition became too expensive even for him.

The IPO money will fund:

- An "insane flight rate" for Starship.

- Manned missions to Mars.

- Artificial Intelligence data centers in space.




4️⃣ Orbital AI: The New Frontier

This is the latest news from the memo. SpaceX wants to use public capital to "deploy AI data centers in space."

The thesis: data processing outside of Earth, free from terrestrial energy regulations and with "free" vacuum cooling, directly feeding the Starlink network.

It's the fusion of the Space + AI thesis.




5️⃣ The Money-Burning (and Generating) Machine

SpaceX projects $15.5 billion in revenue in 2025, and Musk says the cash flow is positive.

But the development of Starship costs billions (more than $2 billion/year in R&D alone), and the company spent a fortune buying spectrum from EchoStar this year.

The private market has a bottom, the public market is (almost) infinite if you sell the case well.



7️⃣ The SpaceX IPO isn't just a stock offering; it's financing the colonization of Mars via Wall Street.

If the market buys into the "AI in Space" + "Launch Monopoly" thesis, we'll see one of the biggest IPOs in history in 2026.

History in the Making: SpaceX Prepares IPO Targeting $800B Valuation

The biggest deal of the year:

Now it’s up to @BlokchainB he’s the one who runs the territory.
If he thinks the post is a duplicate and should be removed, I’ll delete it without any problem.

I appreciate the input, but my points were accurate from the sources I used.
If something differs, I’m open to seeing your references.
Discussion works best when we compare facts, not assumptions.

I did write something. It’s okay if you missed it 

Netflix is ​​buying Warner Bros. Discovery for $72 Billion! 🔥

The streaming war is over, and Netflix has won. In a historic move, the giant has closed a deal to buy the owner of HBO, Warner Bros., and Harry Potter.

It was $72 billion! The media market will never be the same!

![](https://m.stacker.news/120940)




2️⃣ The Terms of the Deal (Cash + Stock)

The offer is valued at US$27.75 per Warner share (a US$10 billion premium over market value).

The total Enterprise Value (including debt) reaches US$82.7 billion, in a transaction involving cash and stock.

It's the heaviest check Netflix has ever written.




3️⃣ What does Netflix take home? (The Content Vault)

The streaming company, which has always been a "builder" (building from scratch), has now become a "buyer."

It takes home:

• Franchises: Harry Potter, Superman, Batman, Friends.

• Prestige: The entire HBO catalog (Game of Thrones, Succession).

• Studios: The legendary Warner Bros. Pictures.


4️⃣ The Strategy: Split and Focus

Before closing, Warner will split in two.

Netflix will buy the "premium" part: studios and streaming (HBO Max).

The "old" part (cable channels like CNN, TNT, TBS) will be separated into another company.

The goal is to keep the premium content, not the declining cable television.



5️⃣ Paramount was outbid

The company tried to buy the entire Warner Bros. (including the cable channels) for $30/share in cash.

But Netflix's lower offer ($27.75) was accepted because there is great belief in the synergy and stock appreciation of the new combined company.

Paramount's stock plummeted 10% on the news.



6️⃣ The Antitrust Risk (The Trump Factor)

The deal won't be a walk in the park. Rivals and lawmakers are already preparing their attacks.

Paramount says the deal creates a global streaming monopoly.

The Trump administration has signaled "concerns."

The merger of the two largest content libraries in the world will face heavy scrutiny in Washington.



7️⃣ The Future of Cinema

Netflix has promised to continue releasing Warner Bros. films in theaters, breaking its tradition of prioritizing streaming.

But the CEO of Cinema United said this transaction is an "unprecedented threat" to the global exhibition business.

The big screen could become a luxury showcase for streaming.

The Saudi-led consortium has completed the purchase of Electronic Arts.

The owner of EA FC, The Sims, and Battlefield now belongs to Riyadh.

But why did they sell off American stock to buy "video games"?

The strategy behind this check is much bigger than it seems!

![](https://m.stacker.news/120472)



2️⃣ Deal Structure: 93% in Saudi hands

The final division of capital was as follows:

1. PIF (93.4%): This is the "vault" where the kingdom keeps its oil profits. They control the business.

2. Silver Lake (5.5%): A global Private Equity giant focused on technology (investor in Twitter and Airbnb).

3. Affinity Partners (1.1%): The investment firm of Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law.



3️⃣ The Strategy: Why buy EA?

The plan is Vision 2030: to remove the Saudi economy's dependence on oil. And games are their "new oil" for two reasons:

1. Recurring Cash Flow: Oil prices fluctuate. Ultimate Team microtransactions generate billions of dollars every year, come rain or shine.

2. Soft Power: They want to own pop culture, not just consume it.



4️⃣ Financial Engineering (The Check)

The bill is hefty. The total enterprise value has been capped at US$55 billion.

The consortium will inject US$36.4 billion in equity and take on US$20 billion in debt.

Since PIF already owned a stake in EA, they need to disburse approximately US$29 billion of "new money" upfront.




5️⃣ Burning Wall Street to Buy Games

The money comes from a portfolio rotation. In November, PIF sold positions in dozens of US-listed companies (blue chips) to raise cash.

The thesis has changed: out with the scattered passive investments in the stock market, in with total control of strategic entertainment assets.




6️⃣ What did they take? (The Cash Machine)

By buying EA, Saudi Arabia guarantees recurring cash flow in dollars, mainly through:

• Soccer: The former FIFA franchise (now EA FC).

• American Football: Madden NFL.

• Simulation: The Sims.

These are products that generate billions in revenue regardless of oil price fluctuations.





7️⃣ The Risk: Deficit vs. Solvency

The Saudi deficit is expected to double to 5.3% of GDP this year due to spending on pharaonic projects (Neom).

However, the kingdom still has very low debt compared to any G7 country and hundreds of billions in reserves.

The "squeeze" is on cash flow for these gigantic projects, not on solvency.





8️⃣ Geopolitics: The Kushner Factor

The presence of Affinity Partners in the consortium is drawing market attention. The firm is led by Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law.

The participation, albeit a minority stake (1.1%), places the family of the US president-elect at the table in one of the biggest deals of the year, further strengthening ties between Washington and Riyadh.