economy

Stacker_Stocks

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Chinese government has been manipulating and hiding economic data to hide the real situation in the country.

GDP, unemployment, real estate, even soy sauce and cremations: everything has become sensitive data.

![](https://m.stacker.news/90672)


Starting with the GDP, which is never wrong

The Chinese government has set a target of 5% growth in 2024 — exactly the target number.

But…

• Goldman Sachs estimated only +3.7%
• Rhodium Group went further: +2.4%

Both used parallel data to arrive at the final result — consumption, energy and imports. Doubt about the official numbers became the rule.


Youth unemployment: the bill that disappeared (and came back with a make-up on it)

In 2023, the rate reached 21.3%. After that, the data disappeared for 5 months.

When it reappeared, it was only 14.5% — but with a trick: 62 million students were excluded from the calculation, even those who were looking for work.

An economist at Peking University estimates the real number is higher than 46%.



Shoyu as a thermometer? Yes. And it was stopped.

Soy sauce production, an indirect indicator of domestic consumption, has no longer been reported since May 2021.

It's a sign of the extent of concern about any metric that points to a slowdown.



 Cremations: the demographic that died

During the pandemic, the number of cremations served as a thermometer of mortality.

But in 2022, this data also disappeared from public reports.

Not even the dead escape statistical control.



Real estate: silence since the developer crisis

Residential property sales stopped being reported in 2022, right in the midst of the collapse of giants like Evergrande and Country Garden.

Without data, the market only sees smoke.



 Foreign investors: total opacity

Since April 2024, China's major exchanges will no longer show real-time foreign capital flows.

The global investor began to operate in the dark.



Censored economists

Economist Gao Shanwen of SDIC Securities told a conference in the US that China could be growing at just 2% a year.

A month later, he was banned from giving interviews or making public statements.

He was not arrested, but he disappeared from the radar.



Wall Street set up its own “parallel IBGE”

Faced with a lack of trust, banks like Goldman Sachs have created alternative models based on:

• Vessel traffic
• Imports
• Energy consumption
• Corporate reports

They prefer to cross-reference data rather than trust the officials.




 Moral of the story:

China tries to maintain the appearance of stability.

But today, foreign investors believe more in the soy sauce consumption curve than in reports from Beijing.

And that says it all.

China's numbers makeup 🇨🇳

US recession is no longer a thesis — it is now the market’s baseline scenario

All signs point to yes.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89812)



US GDP shrank -0.3% in Q1, completely frustrating growth projections.
It's the first drop since 2022 — and a direct sign that the economy has begun to contract.

The probability of a recession has already jumped to 74%.

🤯 The Fed now faces its worst nightmare: negative GDP with inflation reaccelerating.


📉 The market didn't wait: it fell sharply right after the announcement

Dow Jones: -1%
S&P 500: -1 ,5%
Nasdaq: -2.1%
Russell 2000: -1 ,9%

Even without an explosion in the VIX, the message was clear:

the market is repricing the risk of stagflation.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89797)



Trump dropped the bomb on Biden's lap — and warned that tariffs are coming

“That’s Biden’s market, not mine,” Trump said.

He added that “tariffs will soon start to hit.”

He then promised: “when we take the Biden overhang off, the boom will come.”

In other words: more protectionism and more uncertainty ahead.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89798)



What triggered all this? The data:

⸻

1. GDP: drop of -0.3% in the 1st quarter

The consensus expected growth of +0.3%.

And the worst part: 4 months ago, it was projected to be more than +3%.

It is the first negative reading since 2022 and highlights the end of the “soft landing”.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89800)



2. Inflation reaccelerating: +3.7% in core PCE

The GDP Price Index rose by +3.7%.
Core PCE also: +3.7%.

Both well above expectations (3.1 %) and at the highest level since July 2024.

In other words: the Fed cannot cut interest rates — but it also cannot remain firm with the economy slowing.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89801)



3. Long-term interest rates jumped: the market understood the risk

Even with negative GDP, 10-year Treasuries rose almost 10bps, reaching 4.20%.

The message was clear : o the market fears stagflation.

This is not a common cycle downturn. It is a break in the narrative of stability.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89802)



4. The job market has started to crack

ADP reported just 62,000 job creation in April — the lowest number since July 2024.

Even before the GDP, the market was already reacting badly to this number.

The slowdown is coming from many sides.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89803)



5. Oil Melting: Below $60

Even with the stock market rally in recent weeks, oil ignored it and fell sharply.

WTI was already pricing in demand weakness — and now it’s confirmed:
the world is slowing down.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89804)



6. And Kalshi threw the shovel of lime: 74% chance of recession

The platform priced the highest level on record since 2020.

Bets rose 29 points after the data — a jump that shows the narrative changing in real time.

The market is no longer debating “if”… but “when”.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89807)



Summary : o Fed is cornered

Inflation rising. GDP falling. Employment slowing. Oil sinking.
And all this together with aggressive rhetoric and growing commercial risk.

That conversation is open — and central banks are taking action.

The share of Treasuries held by foreigners fell to 23% — the lowest level in 22 years.

In 9 years, almost 11 points less. 📉

Meanwhile, gold has gained ground: it now accounts for almost 18% of global reserves — the highest level in 26 years. 🥇

Since 2015, the increase has been 8 points.

China has led the way: since 2023, the share of gold in China’s reserves has doubled — 7.1%. 🇨🇳




https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1916517947352478190

Global Reserves Redefine: Flight from Treasuries, Rush to Gold

The S&P 500 is on track to have its worst start to an administration since Nixon in the 1970s.

But behind the index's bizarre start, a few stocks stood out — for better or worse.

Those who bet on protection (defensives, data, health) won.

Anyone who depends on consumer confidence, global trade or cheap production technology… has lost.



The biggest falls in the Trump administration 2.0

Rising tariffs and federal spending cuts have spooked industries like aviation, semiconductors and technology.

Among the biggest losers:

•Deckers Outdoor ($DECK): -48%
Owner of the Ugg and Hoka brands — suffers from exposure to Asian production and tariff risk.

•Tesla ($TSLA): -33%
Electric vehicle maker — in addition to tariffs, faces boycotts linked to Musk and Trump.

•Delta Air Lines ($DAL) and United Airlines ($UAL): -37% and -36%
Airline giants hit by falling consumer confidence and risk of recession.




🔻Other negative highlights (and what each one does):

•Teradyne ($TER): -44% — testing for chips and electronics.
•Albemarle ($ALB): -41% — production of lithium for batteries.
•Zebra Technologies ($ZBRA): -39% — industrial printers and tracking.
•Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH): -37% — cruise ships.
•West Pharmaceutical ($WST): -36% — medical packaging.
•Arista Networks ($ANET): -35% — equipment for networks and data centers.
•Skyworks Solutions ($SWKS): -34% — wireless communication chips.
•Bio-Techne ($TECH): -34% — inputs for biomedical research.
•Global Payments ($GPN): -33% — digital payments.



Who did well in the Trump 2.0 era

While the market suffered, some stocks rode the wave:

•Palantir ($PLTR): +57%
Data analysis software for governments and defense — a bet linked to the new DOGE initiative.

•Philip Morris ($PM): +40%
Tobacco giant — considered a classic hedge in turbulent times.

•Netflix ($NFLX): +28%
Video streaming — a business model little affected by tariffs.



Other positive highlights (and what each one does):

•Dollar General ($DG): +37% — low-cost retail.
•VeriSign ($VRSN): +30% — internet domain registration.
•Newmont ($NEM): +29% — gold mining.
•CVS Health ($CVS): +24% — pharmacies and healthcare services.
•Eli Lilly ($LLY): +22% — innovation-focused pharmaceutical company.
•Take-Two Interactive ($TTWO): +21% — video game producer.
•AT&T ($T): +20% — telecommunications.
•Kroger ($KR): +20% — supermarkets.
•CrowdStrike ($CRWD): +19% — cybersecurity.
•Monster Beverage ($MNST): +19% — energy drinks.



📈 Moral of the story:

Trump returned bringing volatility, protectionism and a lot of sector rotation.

Those who bet on protection (defensives, data, health) won.

Anyone who depends on consumer confidence, global trade or cheap production technology… has lost.

The US market after Trump's return: winners and losers in 100 days

Google's Q1 revenue:

I believe they can, especially with strong investments in AI. Revenues could keep getting bigger and bigger.

2025: US$90 billion (+11.1 %)
2024: US$81 billion (+15.7 %)
2023: US$70 billion (+2.9 %)
2022: US$68 billion (+23.6 %)
2021: US$55 billion (+34.1 %)
2020: US$41 billion (+13.9 %)
2019: US$36 billion (+16.1 %)
2018: US$31 billion (+24.0 %)
2017: US$25 billion (+25.0 %)
2016: US$20 billion (+17.6 %)
2015: US$17 billion (+13.3 %)
2014: US$15 billion (+15.4 %)
2013: US$13 billion

![](https://m.stacker.news/89233)

A lot of money has entered the market. But profits are falling, fear still persists and tariff risk remains on the table.

This recovery may be more in investors' heads than in fundamentals.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88947)


1. S&P 500 companies are cutting earnings projections at the worst pace since the pandemic

The number of negative reviews far outnumbered the positive ones.
It is the weakest data since 2020.

While prices are trying to recover, CEOs themselves are saying results will get worse.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88948)


2. Even with this scenario, individual investors continue to buy — and a lot

In April, net purchases of S&P 500 stocks by individuals totaled more than $12 billion, according to Goldman Sachs.

Since the February top, retail investors have been net buyers almost every day.

It is not institutional flow.
It is the strength of retail trying to support the market by force.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88949)


3. This is being celebrated as retail coming of age — but context still matters

The dominant narrative is that “retail has learned to buy in the dips.”

But it's one thing to buy based on fundamentals.

Another is to keep buying as earnings are revised downward and risk rises.

American investors have become accustomed to making money by buying on the dip since the pandemic, but this behavior may be confusing discipline with denial.



4. The Nasdaq attempts a recovery — but still without real strength

After weeks of decline, the Nasdaq managed to turn upward in April.

However, this recovery was built without fundamental support and without a strong entry of institutional investors.

It is more a reflection of a technical rebound than a structural change in the market.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88950)



5. Fear has subsided — but it still dominates the environment

The Fear & Greed Index rose to 37 — out of “extreme fear,” but still far from the neutral zone.

In other words: the feeling improved, but it didn't change.

The market is less panicked — but still far from confident.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88951)


6. The trade war remains extremely unpredictable

Trump has already warned: he does not intend to renew the tariff truce if there are no concessions.

It's been 16 days of the 90-day pause, and the rhetoric has heated up again.

This threat reignites concerns about global supply chains, corporate margins and market stability.



7. Foreigners are quietly exiting American debt

The share of U.S. government bonds held by foreign investors has fallen to its lowest level since the 1990s.

It's a gradual but consistent move — one that weakens demand for Treasuries and increases pressure on U.S. debt financing.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88952)



8. The market reacts even to the names that appear in the headlines

When Scott Bessent — Soros' former CIO and current Treasury Secretary — speaks, the S&P tends to rise.

But when the spotlight is on Peter Navarro (architect of the trade war) or Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce and hawkish voice), the index takes a hit.

It's not noise. It's a clear risk reading:
the combat profile clearly influences the future outlook.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88953)



9. Amid this uncertainty, Bitcoin has started to attract institutional capital again

US Bitcoin ETFs received $381 million in a single day — the largest inflow since January.

It’s not just crypto enthusiasm. It’s a direct reflection of the current landscape:
•Falling profits
•Risk of trade war
•Fear still high
•US fiscal policy increasingly fragile

In this environment, Bitcoin is once again seen as an alternative to the instability of traditional markets.

It's not optimism; it's a silent escape in search of protection.



10. The real picture of the American market today is:

• Falling profits
• Individual supporting the market
• Institutional still out of the game
• Technical recovery, without solid basis
• Feeling still in fear territory
• High trade tensions
• Silent exit of foreigners from Treasuries
• High sensitivity to policy names
• Bitcoin calling in the middle of the confusion

The market moves.
But the base doesn't come with it.

And when the narrative runs too far ahead of reality — the adjustment can be unpleasant.

American investors are buying like the worst is over, but signals are weak 🇺🇸

The Argentine Stock Exchange rose more than 80% in dollars in 1.5 years (equivalent to 56% per year)  After 

![](https://m.stacker.news/88848)

the election, the stock market has already risen almost 100% in dollars (equivalent to more than 60% per year)

Argentine Stock Market Rises 80% in 1.5 Years and Almost Doubles Post-Election

The information was denied by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88709)

Today the market wakes up discovering no tariff talks between US and China.


🇮🇳 India: 6.2%
🇦🇷 Argentina: 5.5%
🇮🇩 Indonesia: 4.7%
🇨🇳 China: 4.0%
🇪🇬 Egypt: 3.8%
🇳🇬 Nigeria: 3.0%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 3.0%
🇹🇷 Turkey: 2.7%
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 2.6%
🇧🇷 Brazil: 2.0%
🇿🇦 South Africa: 1.0%

What did you notice?

![](https://m.stacker.news/88624)

IMF Growth Projections to 2025

Bitcoin surpasses Google in market value and takes 5th place globally

S&P Global US Composite PMI April Flash - worst since Dec 2023

Warren Buffett Now Owns 4.6% of the Entire U.S. Treasury Market

I still think he'll end up having Bitcoin in the future — but I bet he won't have that much time to enjoy it.

“Risk to Autonomy”

exactly, the Trump administration banned this mess.


Harvard University has filed a lawsuit to stop US President Donald Trump from following through on his threat to freeze billions of dollars in funding. A day later, more than 180 universities issued a statement criticizing the US president.

The joint statement by 187 institutional presidents and rectors criticizes the political interference of the Trump administration and cites a risk to the autonomy and integrity of the academic system.

“We must oppose undue government intrusion into the lives of those who study, live, and work on our campuses,” the document states.

Harvard decided to sue the government after receiving a list demanding, even, an external monitor to ensure “diversity of views”.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88382)

![](https://m.stacker.news/88379)

![](https://m.stacker.news/88380)

I selected some that show how AI is already taking audiovisual to another level.

1 — The story of Pope Francis

![](https://m.stacker.news/88374)


2 — Zelensky and Trump come to blows

![](https://m.stacker.news/88375)


3 — Putin watches the fight while eating popcorn

![](https://m.stacker.news/88376)


4 — Mona Lisa gets ready for Leonardo da Vinci

![](https://m.stacker.news/88377)


5 — The evolution of the classic video of Will Smith eating pasta

2 years ago it was bizarre and clearly fake.

Today, the same scene made by AI looks real.

The leap in quality is frightening.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88378)

AI is transforming the video universe before our eyes – Part 1

The global market sinks

Great emotions promise this week 🔥🍿

• Nasdaq back in bear market
• S&P 500 melting down
• Gold and Bitcoin soaring
• Dollar imploding
• Trump attacking the Fed
• China threatening partners
• And the specter of a currency war taking shape

![](https://m.stacker.news/88293)

Nothing definitive, nothing that ends the discussion.
But when you stop and look calmly, the signs seem to want to say something.


1- Foreigners withdraw US$6.5 billion from US stock markets

It was the second largest outflow in history, behind only the banking crisis of 2023.

And it wasn't just flow : o chart shows a clear trend reversal.

According to Apollo, foreigners hold:

• $19 trillion in stocks (20% of the total market)
• US$7 trillion in Treasuries (30 %)
• US$5 trillion in corporate credit (30 %)

If this capital changes its mind, the damage could be great.

![](https://m.stacker.news/87848)


2-  Institutional sentiment has melted

According to BofA, nearly 50% of managers have reduced exposure to US stocks.

The allocation fell 53 points in 2 months — the biggest decline ever recorded.

Today, 36% of funds are underweight, the lowest since the 2023 banking crisis.

82% expect the global economy to weaken — the highest level in history.

The sentiment index plummeted to 1.8 points, the 4th worst reading since 2008.

No one wants to be positioned when the next shock comes.

![](https://m.stacker.news/87849)


3- Risk out of price: Trump takes aim at Powell again

Trump called the Fed chairman “terrible,” said interest rates should have come down by now, and warned:
“If I ask him to leave, he will.”

Bets on its exit in 2025 already reach 21% on Polymarket.

And now Senator Elizabeth Warren has warned:
“If Trump fires Powell, markets will crash.”

![](https://m.stacker.news/87850)

![](https://m.stacker.news/87851)


4-  🇨🇳 On the other hand, the noise with China has reduced punctually

Trump said today that he had a “good conversation” with the Chinese government.

The goal is to reach an agreement that eliminates the current tariff insanity on both sides.

![](https://m.stacker.news/87852)



5- None of this information, alone, changes everything. But the whole thing is disturbing.

• Record of multiple jobs
• Foreign capital outflow
• Pessimism among managers
• Attacks on the Fed

The risks keep accumulating.
However, an agreement with China could change everything.