economy

Stacker_Stocks

• US military alert against China
• New wave of commercial tariffs
• Europe promising retaliation
• Industrial chains stalling
• And US fiscal risk exploding in the market

None of this happened in isolation.
Here's how it all connects 


1. The Pentagon issued its strongest warning in years about China

The US Defense Secretary said China is preparing to use military force and alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, with a focus on Taiwan.

This type of statement usually precedes concrete military movements and the reinforcement of the American presence in the region.

![](https://m.stacker.news/94422)


2. US announces new round of tariffs on steel and aluminum

Trump will double tariffs on these inputs, from 25% to 50%, starting June 4, claiming to defend the national industry.

The decision came after accusing China of breaking trade agreements.
Even without directly affecting the flow of Chinese steel, the gesture is read as part of a broader economic siege.


3. China responded, but on a diplomatic and military level

During the Shangri-La Dialogue, the Chinese Defense Ministry accused the US of instigating conflicts in Asia.

The next day, he called Washington the “greatest threat to peace in the region.”
For Beijing, tariffs, speeches and military movements are part of a single containment strategy.

![](https://m.stacker.news/94423)



4. Escalation hits the market: US fiscal risk soars

The US Treasury's 1-year CDS rose to 52 basis points, the highest level since 2011, disregarding the debt ceiling crisis in 2023.

The number shows that investors are already demanding more to finance the US, worried about the high deficit, political impasse and lack of a fiscal adjustment plan.

The US is isolating itself diplomatically, hampering global trade and ignoring its own fiscal imbalances.

![](https://m.stacker.news/94424)



🇪🇺 5. European Union reacts to tariffs and threatens retaliation

The European Commission said it was preparing trade countermeasures and that the new US tariffs were undermining progress in negotiations for a new transatlantic deal.

Until a few days ago, the US and Europe were getting closer. Now, the risk is of a complete setback and commercial isolation of the Americans.



6. Industrial chains begin to feel the effects of the crisis

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of withholding strategic inputs for sectors such as defense, semiconductors, energy and heavy manufacturing.

These bottlenecks can cause production delays, put pressure on costs and affect companies around the world.

![](https://m.stacker.news/94425)


7. The US government signals that it will not back down

The Commerce Secretary said the tariffs will not be reversed, and is sticking to a tough line despite pressure from China, Europe and domestic sectors.

There is no expectation of détente in the short term.

![](https://m.stacker.news/94426)


Summary: The problems are now all interconnected

• Military tension between the US and China
• New tariff escalation affecting strategic partners
• US fiscal risk is once again worrying the market.
• US trade isolation growing
• Global industry starting to grind to a halt

🌍 The kind of sequence that turns on a red light on every trading desk

The CEO of JPMorgan, the largest bank in the US, made an extremely aggressive statement at one of the most important events for the American economic elite.

![](https://m.stacker.news/94138)


1. “A crack in the US bond market is inevitable” 🔥

It was with this phrase that Jamie Dimon caught attention at the Reagan National Economic Forum, held at the Ronald Reagan Library.


2. Why does this topic matter? 👀

The US bond market is where the US government issues debt to finance itself. It is the largest and most important in the world.

Treasuries, as these bonds are called, are considered the safest asset on the planet. Therefore, they serve as a reference for calculating the risk and price of practically all other assets.

If this market shakes, the entire financial system feels it!



3. Dimon predicts 5% interest rates, but says JPMorgan is ready 🥵

JPMorgan would already be positioned for scenarios with even higher interest rates.

According to him, the bank can benefit from market distortions without having to take excessive risks or panic.


4. But the biggest alert was fiscal 🔥

Dimon has been harshly critical of the growing US deficit.

He said that if nothing is done, the US could put its own fiscal stability at risk, impacting all global markets.

Jamie Dimon just warned: a crack in the bond market is “inevitable”

NY futures soar after US court blocks Trump's tariff hikes, dismantling one of the pillars of the White House's economic policy.

A problem for Trump, a temporary relief for the markets.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93976)


The courts dismantled Trump's tariff plan

The U.S. Court of International Trade has ruled that the president cannot impose unilateral tariffs.

Not even under the claim of “economic emergency”.

Control of foreign trade remains with Congress.

Trump's attempt to expand his economic powers is threatened by domestic issues.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93977)


The legal basis was fragile: IEEPA

This is a 1977 law that allows emergency actions in international crises.

Trump used this device to justify broad tariffs.

The White House justified this by saying that the objective was to contain drugs and illegal immigration.
But the court rejected it, stating that it is not possible to use the IEEPA to charge the entire world.

Thus, tariffs against China, Mexico and Canada were suspended.


The court decision affected investors' mood:

• S&P 500 futures jumped more than 100 points
• Nasdaq accelerated strongly
• Small caps rising heavily
• Asian stock markets followed suit
• And the VIX plummeted almost 4%

The market understood the decision as a retreat from protectionism and a possible brake on global inflationary pressure.


The White House rushed to appeal.

The government immediately filed an appeal.
But the decision exposed the weakness of the legal basis of the tariff package.

Creating broad tariffs without Congress fails the constitutional test.



The timing couldn't be worse for 
POTUS


Trump tries to pass a new budget with:

• Trillion-dollar tax cuts
• More defense spending

However, with the tariffs blocked, the projected revenue disappears from the map.
And the narrative of fiscal responsibility loses strength.



To make matters worse, Elon Musk jumped ship.

After 130 days, Musk left DOGE — the Department of Government Efficiency created by Trump.

He came out firing, saying that the new budget undermines all the work done so far.

Losing Musk at this time is a hard blow to the government's fiscalist image.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93978)


 Interest rates continue to warn of a BIGGER problem.

Even with the market's “good mood” and the rally in the stock markets,
10-year and 2-year Treasury yields rose again this morning.

This shows that investors will continue to demand more premium to finance the government while the fiscal mess remains.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93979)



📌 Summary

• The courts blocked Trump's tariff hike.
• The legal basis of the package has collapsed.
• The White House appealed, but is weakened.
• Markets rise sharply.
• On the other hand, interest rates also continue to rise.
• At the same time, Musk decided to leave the government.

The news that can make you money today!

Satoshi Nakamoto, creator of Bitcoin, is now the 11th richest person in the world.

The interesting thing: Nobody knows who he is. 🤯

![](https://m.stacker.news/93718)

The owner of 120 billion dollars.

A very weak auction of American bonds caused long-term interest rates to rise once again and the stock markets to rally.

But this is not an isolated event. It is the continuation of a movement that has been putting pressure on the market for weeks.

And this pressure is putting Donald Trump in a corner!

![](https://m.stacker.news/93040)


The US Treasury attempted to sell $16 billion in 20-year bonds.

Demand was very weak, forcing the government to accept paying higher interest rates than the market projected.

The yield came out at 5.047%, above the expectation of 5.035%.

This seemingly small deviation represents a relevant level of stress in the fixed income market.

In technical terms, this is called a “tail”.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93041)


This means that the Treasury had difficulty attracting demand and had to offer a higher premium than the market expected.

The message was clear : o the market wants higher interest rates to carry American risk.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93042)


The impacts:

Long-term interest rates rose rapidly after the auction, and the stock market turned negative.

The S&P 500 fell 80 points in less than 30 minutes.

It was not a catastrophic fall, but rather a clear reaction to the tension with debt and interest rates.

The indexes closed as follows:

•Dow: -817 pts (-1 , 91 %)
•S&P: -95 pts (-1 , 61 %)
•Nasdaq: -270 pts (-1 , 41 %)

![](https://m.stacker.news/93043)


It is important to emphasize that all of this did not start today!

US debt has now surpassed 100% of GDP.

Moody's projection is that it could reach 134% by 2035.

The market is paying more attention to this every day.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93044)


💣 The real problem:

Interest on the debt alone could consume nearly 1 in every 3 dollars collected by the government in the coming years.

This is the type of situation that creates less space for public investment, less room to cut taxes and more pressure on interest rates.

The yields are as follows:

•10 years: 4.597%
•30 years: 5.085%

Virtually the highest levels since 2007.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93045)


And there is a major aggravating factor:

Japan, the largest foreign creditor to the US, is also facing its own fiscal crisis, which is now beginning to spill over into global markets.

The repercussions are in the interest rates:

•Japan's 30-year bond is now paying 3.15%, the highest level in 25 years.
•The 40-year-old reached 3.6%, a historic record.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93046)


Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba himself threw sh… in the fan:

“Japan’s fiscal situation is worse than Greece’s.”

The Bank of Japan has begun a movement to raise interest rates and reduce the purchase of government bonds.

What held back the dynamics of Japanese debt… no longer holds back.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93047)


This has direct implications for the US:

If Japan needs to finance itself, part of that liquidity comes from the sale of US Treasuries.

When this happens, the consequence is simple:
less demand, bond prices fall, interest rates rise.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93048)


🇨🇳 Worst of all : o risk doesn't stop in Japan:

Foreigners hold 33% of US debt — more than $8.5 trillion.

Japan and China alone account for almost US$2 trillion.

If these players start to reduce exposure, pressure on yields is inevitable.



The background is extremely delicate:

•US deficit at 7% of GDP.
• Huge public spending.
•Inflation that raises doubts.
•And a Fed making it clear it won't cut rates any time soon.

![](https://m.stacker.news/93049)



🌎 There is potential for overflow around the world:

High interest rates abroad = dry liquidity worldwide.

•Stronger dollar.
•Pressure on the stock market.
•More expensive credit.
•And high risk in emerging markets.

The biggest risk of 2025 has started to blow up in our faces.

Bill Gates believes that, thanks to artificial intelligence, this will be the new reality — and it could happen in less than 10 years.

On The Tonight Show, Gates spoke to Jimmy Fallon about the impact of AI on the job market.

According to him, at the current rate, humans will no longer be necessary “for most things”.

The world will have to completely rethink the idea of ​​work.


 And this vision did not arise now.

In 2023, with the ChatGPT boom, Gates already predicted that society would move towards a 3-day workweek.

The challenge? Figuring out what to do with so much free time.


“If you stop to think about it, the purpose of life is not just to work”

According to him, reducing working hours could be the key to combating burnout.

And it might even help boost birth rates in rapidly aging countries.



🇯🇵 It's not just theory.

The Tokyo government has announced the official adoption of the 4-day week.

Among the reasons is precisely the incentive to form new families.


Even Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, said he believes AI can make the journey 3 1/2 days faster.

But… your own bank is going against the grain, with a strict rule of in-person work 5 times a week.


Gates was also direct about who will feel the change most:
Doctors and teachers.

These professions, according to him, will be partially replaced — but the result will be mass access to quality diagnosis and education.


 Some activities will remain human.

According to him, “we still want to see someone playing baseball.”

But production, logistics, agriculture… must become completely automated tasks.



And the final message is simple:
Anyone who resists AI will be left behind.

According to LinkedIn, AI literacy is already the fastest growing skill in 2025.

Are you prepared to work 2 days a week?

Are you ready to work only 2x a week?

Buffett has updated his stock portfolio — and the signs are clear.

It continues to sell strongly, has further increased cash and has eliminated emblematic positions, such as NUBANK and Citigroup.


2. For the 11th time in a row, Buffett sold more than he bought.

There were about US$3.6 billion in sales and only US$2.2 billion in purchases.

In practice, this means he held an extra $1.4 billion in cash — a clear sign of caution.

![](https://m.stacker.news/92353)



3. Two positions were eliminated from the portfolio:

– Citigroup ($C)
– Nubank ($NU)

In addition, it has sharply reduced other financial and media bets, such as:
– Bank of America (-7 .15 %)
– Liberty Media F1 (-48.36 %)
– T-Mobile (-10.73 %)

Buffett is clearly moving on from where he sees little upside.

![](https://m.stacker.news/92354)



4. And what about the purchasing side?

Nothing new on the front. Literally.
Buffett did not add any new companies.

It only reinforced some existing positions, with highlights for:
– Pool Corp (+144 %)
– Constellation Brands (+113%)
– Domino's, SiriusXM, Occidental, HEICO, Verisign also rose modestly.



5. The cash register is at a surreal level.

Estimates indicate that Berkshire already has more than US$350 billion in cash and short-term investments.

Just for comparison: this number has more than doubled since 2020.

Buffett is clearly waiting for the right time to strike.

![](https://m.stacker.news/92355)




6. The portfolio concentration is impressive.

Despite the 36 stocks, 10 positions represent 89% of the portfolio.
Apple alone is more than 25%.

Buffett doesn't diversify for nothing—he focuses on what he has complete conviction about.

![](https://m.stacker.news/92356)



7. Even with the departure of Citi and Nubank, the financial sector remains dominant.

After selling a large part of BofA and exiting smaller banks, the sector still occupies 35% of the portfolio.

It's part of Berkshire's DNA — even in a reduced version.

![](https://m.stacker.news/92357)



8. Buffett continues to ignore market crazes.

– No betting on AI
– No chips
– No tech startups

The focus remains on companies with predictable cash flow, real products and little hype.



9. The message behind the data is straightforward:

Buffett is not seeing good opportunities with the current asset price.
He would rather wait than force decisions in a market that looks expensive.

This behavior is not a one-off — it has been consistent since 2022.

Berkshire Hathaway's new 13F filing is out

Michael Burry, the investor who predicted the 2008 crash, sold absolutely EVERYTHING he had in his portfolio in the 1st quarter

Burry sold all of his shares in Scion Asset Management, while building a new position: Estée Lauder ($EL)

![](https://m.stacker.news/92087)


2. The movement was radical

❌ Exited 13 companies including Alibaba, Baidu,  Pinduoduo, Oscar Health and VF Corp

✅ Purchased 100,000 shares of Estée Lauder, which represented 50% of the quarterly portfolio change

Estée Lauder is a cosmetics giant, owner of brands such as MAC, Clinique and La Mer.

Shares are near 5-year lows after earnings miss and guidance cuts.

![](https://m.stacker.news/92088)


3. Why it matters

Burry became famous for making billions betting against the housing market in 2008, a case that inspired the film The Big Short.

Since then, their movements have been monitored as possible signs of distortion or crisis.

But it's also true that he tried to predict the bottom of the market several times after that and got it wrong.

![](https://m.stacker.news/92089)

Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 crisis, sold everything in the 1st quarter

Capital leaving, dollar melting, weak data, interest rates soaring… and the S&P flying.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91724)


1. – 📈 The S&P 500 rose again strongly

Since the April bottom, the index has risen more than 1,000 points and is up +20%.

Now operating positive for the year (+0.3 %)

Officially, we are in a bull market.

But the pillars of this increase are fragile and the tariff reliefs were fundamental.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91725)


2. – 🧠 Smart money is running away from this high

Fund allocation fell to 55%, the lowest since 2020.

Individuals are at 64%, the lowest since the 2022 crash.

Little by little, the money is being put into your pocket.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91726)



3. – 💸 Hedge funds turned short on the dollar

Net exposure went from +35 to -20 in a few months.

It is the second most pessimistic position in the last 2 years.

A sudden movement that precedes cycle transitions.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91727)



4. – 🌍 Strong currencies have already started to price in this new cycle

In 2025:

•Euro: +9.7%
•Swiss franc: +9.3%
•Yen: +7.9%
•Pound: +6.3%

The DXY index fell -7.5% for the year.

The US dollar is no longer the darling.



5. – 📦 Global trade slowing sharply

The new orders PMI fell to 47.5, its lowest level since 2022.

Expectations of future production also collapsed.

The global economy has lost traction — and fast.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91728)



6. – 💥 Long-term interest rates have exploded in major markets

Germany, UK, Japan and US: all with 30Y breaking resistance

In the USA:
•10Y at 4.50%
•30Y approaching 5%
•+30 bps in May only

The US curve is already 100 bps above the Fed's last pivot.

This movement is not just technical: it is also macro.

The market has been abandoning the thesis of major cuts.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91729)

![](https://m.stacker.news/91730)



7. – 🇯🇵 Japan has become the spark of global stress

•JGB 30Y: 2.96%, highest level since the 2000s

•JGB 40Y: 3.44%, historic record

The country is emerging from artificial interest rate control after decades.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91731)



8. – 🏦 And this directly affects the US

The BoJ is reducing its balance sheet.
Japanese insurers are selling Treasuries.

Result?
•Less external demand for US debt

•Increased pressure on US long yields



9. – 🗣️ Trump has stepped up his attack on the Fed

“Too Late Powell”, “Not fair to America” 🇺🇸

Trump demands immediate cuts.
Powell resists.

And investors… no longer know what to expect.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91732)



10. – ❌ The market has stopped believing in interest rate cuts

Kalshi now shows only 2 cuts priced for 2025.

There have already been 5.
The curve has turned.
Reality knocked on the door.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91733)



11. – 🌐 It is a global repricing movement

Yields rose en masse:
•USA
•Germany
•United Kingdom
•Japan
•Canada

It is the global cost of money that is changing.



12. – 🎭 The current bull market is more technical than fundamentalist.

High pulled by:
•Tech
•AI
•Short squeeze

But the baseline data continues to deteriorate.

The surface is beautiful. The subsoil, not so much.

This divergence will not last forever!

The market is back in the bull market! But something is OUT OF PLACE

The smallest country in the world, with only 800 inhabitants, surprises by concentrating:

- 4 CFA certified analysts
- 17 Bloomberg Terminals
- Management of more than € 5 billion in assets

All operated by the IOR (Vatican Bank), which surpasses even Luxembourg and the Cayman Islands in terms of financial structure density.

![](https://m.stacker.news/91554)

CFAith: Vatican has more Bloomberg Terminals per capita than NYC, London, SG.

It’s MSTY Dividend day!! Rejoice Stackers!! 1st Payout to the Stackers.

BlokchainB

Thank you very much, I am truly grateful. You can always count on me. It is a pleasure to contribute to SN and especially to its territory.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Chinese government has been manipulating and hiding economic data to hide the real situation in the country.

GDP, unemployment, real estate, even soy sauce and cremations: everything has become sensitive data.

![](https://m.stacker.news/90672)


Starting with the GDP, which is never wrong

The Chinese government has set a target of 5% growth in 2024 — exactly the target number.

But…

• Goldman Sachs estimated only +3.7%
• Rhodium Group went further: +2.4%

Both used parallel data to arrive at the final result — consumption, energy and imports. Doubt about the official numbers became the rule.


Youth unemployment: the bill that disappeared (and came back with a make-up on it)

In 2023, the rate reached 21.3%. After that, the data disappeared for 5 months.

When it reappeared, it was only 14.5% — but with a trick: 62 million students were excluded from the calculation, even those who were looking for work.

An economist at Peking University estimates the real number is higher than 46%.



Shoyu as a thermometer? Yes. And it was stopped.

Soy sauce production, an indirect indicator of domestic consumption, has no longer been reported since May 2021.

It's a sign of the extent of concern about any metric that points to a slowdown.



 Cremations: the demographic that died

During the pandemic, the number of cremations served as a thermometer of mortality.

But in 2022, this data also disappeared from public reports.

Not even the dead escape statistical control.



Real estate: silence since the developer crisis

Residential property sales stopped being reported in 2022, right in the midst of the collapse of giants like Evergrande and Country Garden.

Without data, the market only sees smoke.



 Foreign investors: total opacity

Since April 2024, China's major exchanges will no longer show real-time foreign capital flows.

The global investor began to operate in the dark.



Censored economists

Economist Gao Shanwen of SDIC Securities told a conference in the US that China could be growing at just 2% a year.

A month later, he was banned from giving interviews or making public statements.

He was not arrested, but he disappeared from the radar.



Wall Street set up its own “parallel IBGE”

Faced with a lack of trust, banks like Goldman Sachs have created alternative models based on:

• Vessel traffic
• Imports
• Energy consumption
• Corporate reports

They prefer to cross-reference data rather than trust the officials.




 Moral of the story:

China tries to maintain the appearance of stability.

But today, foreign investors believe more in the soy sauce consumption curve than in reports from Beijing.

And that says it all.

China's numbers makeup 🇨🇳

US recession is no longer a thesis — it is now the market’s baseline scenario

All signs point to yes.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89812)



US GDP shrank -0.3% in Q1, completely frustrating growth projections.
It's the first drop since 2022 — and a direct sign that the economy has begun to contract.

The probability of a recession has already jumped to 74%.

🤯 The Fed now faces its worst nightmare: negative GDP with inflation reaccelerating.


📉 The market didn't wait: it fell sharply right after the announcement

Dow Jones: -1%
S&P 500: -1 ,5%
Nasdaq: -2.1%
Russell 2000: -1 ,9%

Even without an explosion in the VIX, the message was clear:

the market is repricing the risk of stagflation.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89797)



Trump dropped the bomb on Biden's lap — and warned that tariffs are coming

“That’s Biden’s market, not mine,” Trump said.

He added that “tariffs will soon start to hit.”

He then promised: “when we take the Biden overhang off, the boom will come.”

In other words: more protectionism and more uncertainty ahead.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89798)



What triggered all this? The data:

⸻

1. GDP: drop of -0.3% in the 1st quarter

The consensus expected growth of +0.3%.

And the worst part: 4 months ago, it was projected to be more than +3%.

It is the first negative reading since 2022 and highlights the end of the “soft landing”.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89800)



2. Inflation reaccelerating: +3.7% in core PCE

The GDP Price Index rose by +3.7%.
Core PCE also: +3.7%.

Both well above expectations (3.1 %) and at the highest level since July 2024.

In other words: the Fed cannot cut interest rates — but it also cannot remain firm with the economy slowing.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89801)



3. Long-term interest rates jumped: the market understood the risk

Even with negative GDP, 10-year Treasuries rose almost 10bps, reaching 4.20%.

The message was clear : o the market fears stagflation.

This is not a common cycle downturn. It is a break in the narrative of stability.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89802)



4. The job market has started to crack

ADP reported just 62,000 job creation in April — the lowest number since July 2024.

Even before the GDP, the market was already reacting badly to this number.

The slowdown is coming from many sides.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89803)



5. Oil Melting: Below $60

Even with the stock market rally in recent weeks, oil ignored it and fell sharply.

WTI was already pricing in demand weakness — and now it’s confirmed:
the world is slowing down.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89804)



6. And Kalshi threw the shovel of lime: 74% chance of recession

The platform priced the highest level on record since 2020.

Bets rose 29 points after the data — a jump that shows the narrative changing in real time.

The market is no longer debating “if”… but “when”.

![](https://m.stacker.news/89807)



Summary : o Fed is cornered

Inflation rising. GDP falling. Employment slowing. Oil sinking.
And all this together with aggressive rhetoric and growing commercial risk.

That conversation is open — and central banks are taking action.

The share of Treasuries held by foreigners fell to 23% — the lowest level in 22 years.

In 9 years, almost 11 points less. 📉

Meanwhile, gold has gained ground: it now accounts for almost 18% of global reserves — the highest level in 26 years. 🥇

Since 2015, the increase has been 8 points.

China has led the way: since 2023, the share of gold in China’s reserves has doubled — 7.1%. 🇨🇳




https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1916517947352478190

Global Reserves Redefine: Flight from Treasuries, Rush to Gold

The S&P 500 is on track to have its worst start to an administration since Nixon in the 1970s.

But behind the index's bizarre start, a few stocks stood out — for better or worse.

Those who bet on protection (defensives, data, health) won.

Anyone who depends on consumer confidence, global trade or cheap production technology… has lost.



The biggest falls in the Trump administration 2.0

Rising tariffs and federal spending cuts have spooked industries like aviation, semiconductors and technology.

Among the biggest losers:

•Deckers Outdoor ($DECK): -48%
Owner of the Ugg and Hoka brands — suffers from exposure to Asian production and tariff risk.

•Tesla ($TSLA): -33%
Electric vehicle maker — in addition to tariffs, faces boycotts linked to Musk and Trump.

•Delta Air Lines ($DAL) and United Airlines ($UAL): -37% and -36%
Airline giants hit by falling consumer confidence and risk of recession.




🔻Other negative highlights (and what each one does):

•Teradyne ($TER): -44% — testing for chips and electronics.
•Albemarle ($ALB): -41% — production of lithium for batteries.
•Zebra Technologies ($ZBRA): -39% — industrial printers and tracking.
•Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH): -37% — cruise ships.
•West Pharmaceutical ($WST): -36% — medical packaging.
•Arista Networks ($ANET): -35% — equipment for networks and data centers.
•Skyworks Solutions ($SWKS): -34% — wireless communication chips.
•Bio-Techne ($TECH): -34% — inputs for biomedical research.
•Global Payments ($GPN): -33% — digital payments.



Who did well in the Trump 2.0 era

While the market suffered, some stocks rode the wave:

•Palantir ($PLTR): +57%
Data analysis software for governments and defense — a bet linked to the new DOGE initiative.

•Philip Morris ($PM): +40%
Tobacco giant — considered a classic hedge in turbulent times.

•Netflix ($NFLX): +28%
Video streaming — a business model little affected by tariffs.



Other positive highlights (and what each one does):

•Dollar General ($DG): +37% — low-cost retail.
•VeriSign ($VRSN): +30% — internet domain registration.
•Newmont ($NEM): +29% — gold mining.
•CVS Health ($CVS): +24% — pharmacies and healthcare services.
•Eli Lilly ($LLY): +22% — innovation-focused pharmaceutical company.
•Take-Two Interactive ($TTWO): +21% — video game producer.
•AT&T ($T): +20% — telecommunications.
•Kroger ($KR): +20% — supermarkets.
•CrowdStrike ($CRWD): +19% — cybersecurity.
•Monster Beverage ($MNST): +19% — energy drinks.



📈 Moral of the story:

Trump returned bringing volatility, protectionism and a lot of sector rotation.

Those who bet on protection (defensives, data, health) won.

Anyone who depends on consumer confidence, global trade or cheap production technology… has lost.

The US market after Trump's return: winners and losers in 100 days

Google's Q1 revenue:

I believe they can, especially with strong investments in AI. Revenues could keep getting bigger and bigger.

2025: US$90 billion (+11.1 %)
2024: US$81 billion (+15.7 %)
2023: US$70 billion (+2.9 %)
2022: US$68 billion (+23.6 %)
2021: US$55 billion (+34.1 %)
2020: US$41 billion (+13.9 %)
2019: US$36 billion (+16.1 %)
2018: US$31 billion (+24.0 %)
2017: US$25 billion (+25.0 %)
2016: US$20 billion (+17.6 %)
2015: US$17 billion (+13.3 %)
2014: US$15 billion (+15.4 %)
2013: US$13 billion

![](https://m.stacker.news/89233)

A lot of money has entered the market. But profits are falling, fear still persists and tariff risk remains on the table.

This recovery may be more in investors' heads than in fundamentals.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88947)


1. S&P 500 companies are cutting earnings projections at the worst pace since the pandemic

The number of negative reviews far outnumbered the positive ones.
It is the weakest data since 2020.

While prices are trying to recover, CEOs themselves are saying results will get worse.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88948)


2. Even with this scenario, individual investors continue to buy — and a lot

In April, net purchases of S&P 500 stocks by individuals totaled more than $12 billion, according to Goldman Sachs.

Since the February top, retail investors have been net buyers almost every day.

It is not institutional flow.
It is the strength of retail trying to support the market by force.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88949)


3. This is being celebrated as retail coming of age — but context still matters

The dominant narrative is that “retail has learned to buy in the dips.”

But it's one thing to buy based on fundamentals.

Another is to keep buying as earnings are revised downward and risk rises.

American investors have become accustomed to making money by buying on the dip since the pandemic, but this behavior may be confusing discipline with denial.



4. The Nasdaq attempts a recovery — but still without real strength

After weeks of decline, the Nasdaq managed to turn upward in April.

However, this recovery was built without fundamental support and without a strong entry of institutional investors.

It is more a reflection of a technical rebound than a structural change in the market.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88950)



5. Fear has subsided — but it still dominates the environment

The Fear & Greed Index rose to 37 — out of “extreme fear,” but still far from the neutral zone.

In other words: the feeling improved, but it didn't change.

The market is less panicked — but still far from confident.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88951)


6. The trade war remains extremely unpredictable

Trump has already warned: he does not intend to renew the tariff truce if there are no concessions.

It's been 16 days of the 90-day pause, and the rhetoric has heated up again.

This threat reignites concerns about global supply chains, corporate margins and market stability.



7. Foreigners are quietly exiting American debt

The share of U.S. government bonds held by foreign investors has fallen to its lowest level since the 1990s.

It's a gradual but consistent move — one that weakens demand for Treasuries and increases pressure on U.S. debt financing.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88952)



8. The market reacts even to the names that appear in the headlines

When Scott Bessent — Soros' former CIO and current Treasury Secretary — speaks, the S&P tends to rise.

But when the spotlight is on Peter Navarro (architect of the trade war) or Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce and hawkish voice), the index takes a hit.

It's not noise. It's a clear risk reading:
the combat profile clearly influences the future outlook.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88953)



9. Amid this uncertainty, Bitcoin has started to attract institutional capital again

US Bitcoin ETFs received $381 million in a single day — the largest inflow since January.

It’s not just crypto enthusiasm. It’s a direct reflection of the current landscape:
•Falling profits
•Risk of trade war
•Fear still high
•US fiscal policy increasingly fragile

In this environment, Bitcoin is once again seen as an alternative to the instability of traditional markets.

It's not optimism; it's a silent escape in search of protection.



10. The real picture of the American market today is:

• Falling profits
• Individual supporting the market
• Institutional still out of the game
• Technical recovery, without solid basis
• Feeling still in fear territory
• High trade tensions
• Silent exit of foreigners from Treasuries
• High sensitivity to policy names
• Bitcoin calling in the middle of the confusion

The market moves.
But the base doesn't come with it.

And when the narrative runs too far ahead of reality — the adjustment can be unpleasant.

American investors are buying like the worst is over, but signals are weak 🇺🇸

The Argentine Stock Exchange rose more than 80% in dollars in 1.5 years (equivalent to 56% per year)  After 

![](https://m.stacker.news/88848)

the election, the stock market has already risen almost 100% in dollars (equivalent to more than 60% per year)

Argentine Stock Market Rises 80% in 1.5 Years and Almost Doubles Post-Election

The information was denied by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

![](https://m.stacker.news/88709)