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30 sats \ 17 replies \ @justin_shocknet 22 Jun \ on: hormuz strait closed econ
That was the word this morning but have seems they backed off it.. courts punted it to security apparatus: #1012302
If it were to shut down that cuts off China from oil, to the extent any of this fake shit is leading to something it's Taiwan
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China's been building infrastructure apparently to circumvent the strait.
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total coincidence
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I think it's less about Iran cutting itself off to China, but the US demanding "they" cause an incident in the strait that covers for the more general cut-off of Saudi/Kuwati/Qatari/Iraqi oil that moves through the straight.
From the lens of a deal was made years ago and this is all theater for other purposes. Trump even eluded to this the other day regarding the fake response after Soleimani.
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I presume by fake you mean something like "orchestrated," and saying so is not really falsifiable for most folks, so then I'm curious what the point is you're getting at.
Everything might be "fake" until it comes to your doorstep.
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Have you looked at the logistics of closing the strait? The only thing that Iran could and I say could with a heavy emphasis is to randomly mine there areas of the strait. If there stuff floats over to the UAE or Oman they have a whole other issue on their hands.
They also just do not have a Navy that could block and hold the strait.
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I would first assume it's not Iran closing the straight, but the US, and Iran would just be the cover.
Assuming what everyone thinks in normieland is true, and it was really Iran trying to close it and cut themselves off... which makes no sense... all they'd have to do is fire rockets at ships. That's enough to cut insurance off for ships that pass through, self-enforcing blockade.
My dad was on a destroyer during the hostage crisis, old bastard has stories.
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Sure they could use those three islands short term but to think that the UAE and the Saudi's themselves wouldnt move in to erase the threat is wild. We saw the Houthi's try this and I mean it ended up reaching a point of not being much of a factor. You get the Middle East supporting and ya know.... not great.
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That's why I don't believe Iran would be the ones behind it if the straight closed, but if they were I agree it wouldn't last long.
US on the other hand could shut it down for months before the public started to catch on.
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Honestly I am not sure the US could because of the sheer wild capabilities of the Open Source Intel community now.... I mean we would almost need to create or steal I guess Iranian mines and then get Iran to agree to the mines are from them.... which would just be to much in my mind to get Iran to agree with us.
I am much more concerned about lone wolf attacks or other things that might arise. If Iranian sleeper cells exist I think now is when we would see them activated...
Not sure what point you're getting at by splitting hairs, but to clarify then i'll remind you that everything we see is scripted, unless you've been in a SCIF recently and have some serious clearance.
I like to extrapolate on what could possibly be getting set up in the next episode, hense my prior comment in the other thread re: Hormuz... if this is a 3 act play this weekend is barely act 1.
Doorstep exactly, how set up are you for a fake cyberattack that takes down power and comms for the better part of a week?
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the difference between fake and orchestrated is not negligible, imo, especially for the some 6 million who have evacuated tehran.
but i think we agree, in general, it's very hard to have any clarity on motivation.
the direction this takes is anyone's guess
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Even if we are to take at face value the perception that there's no backroom deal in place between Iran and the US already, and that this is now completely out of control with what comes next left to the whims of chance, the timing of it was chosen for reasons we're not clued in too.
Asking nothing more than "why now?" puts a whole different lens on it.
6 million who have evacuated tehran
I'm not convinced that actually happened, traffic pictures can be improperly source and don't represent lots of facts on the ground. Trump tweeted it, but we don't know exactly who that message was to and what it meant. I highly doubt a meaningful number of Persians bugged out because of it specifically.
Special Ops are another reason why you may want to have the local population thin out a bit too, we won't hear about those.
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I know of a handful of people who have left the city (that would be all of the people i know there) but that's only a small sample.
The possibility that they are colluding is a likely explanation. Its also one i have a hard time reconciling with the long history of warfare between the east and west.
So wrote Kipling c. 100 years ago
East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet, Till Earth and Sky stand presently at God's great Judgement Seat.
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East in this scenario is chy-nah