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What do you think will compel today's countries to break apart?

Fiscal insolvency and political polarization

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My thinking is that political polarization is pushing people more towards distinct poles (red vs blue), rather than causing people to splinter into a million different belief systems.

Of course there are lots of sub-groups, but it feels like most tribes fit neatly into red or blue narratives these days.

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You're right, so far. Polarization is highly bipolar.

Still, that drives urban-rural divides and could lead to cities wanting more autonomy from their surroundings.

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This is the key division: rural vs urban

There are no blue states only blue cities

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why?

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drones are cheaper than security guards and can be deployed much like private security.

I think when towns are able to protect themselves, they will elect to do so.

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