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The story behind the title comes from @Undisciplined's tactic to use it once and again in our European Football pools. It definitely paid him well as he clinched our summer contest, even though he used a variety of final scores. In the last episode of ~Stacker_Sports' podcast, @grayruby mentioned that he had try the 1-0 as other possible outcome.
To be honest, I had not looked into it prior to these comments. I had the impression that 1-0 or 2-0 would be a very common result but not sure how often it happens.
So, over the weekend, I was looking to first 5 weeks of major leagues in Europe, including Spain, England, Italy, Germany and France. I also added Portugal as @0xbitcoiner is one of our regulars in football. Also, I looked into the first week of European contests.
These are the results:
You can see results of over 300 matches played since August till the end of September, where the most frequent results are:
  • 1-0 (11,83%)
  • 1-1 (11,52%)
  • 0-1 (8,09%)
  • 2-1 (7,16%)
  • 2-0 (6,85%)
  • 1-2 (6,54%)
It looks like that @grayruby was right. In addition, if we look to aggregates such as 1-0 or 0-1, the percentage raises to 19,93%. The aggregate for the 2-1 or 1-2 only reaches 13,7%.
Obviously, these are partial results as I haven't checked a full season but it is a sign.
It is also interesting to see that it varies depending on the country. France reaches almost a third of matches with a final result of 1-0. Spain seems to love 1-1 (20%), similarly to Italy. England is undefined with any of 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1. In Germany, 2-1 wins though with just 4 matches in 45 played. Finally, Portugal's is 0-2.
As an extra, you can also see that almost 30% of matches ended up with 4 or more goals.
I will keep an eye on the following weeks to see if the trend changes.
Interesting. You'd have to categorize the scores by who was the favorite to really get at the strategy, though.
It might be that one score matches go to the underdog more often than 2-1 matches.
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I see, I will look into it to see if that makes a difference. Thanks!
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30 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 8h
So you are saying I should have picked all 1-0 today and I didn’t?
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Well, not much information available yet as they have played just one week. Not sure about the trend at this moment...
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Carresan OP 8h
Hahaha, a lot more visual than my poor table. Thanks for sharing it! Results may vary a bit as I did consider only up to week 5 in all leagues.
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Not bad, worth the try!
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