Every 4 years, Bitcoin needs to 2x in value to keep the security budget the same (all else equal); Otherwise it drops.

Here is the yearly-average price appreciation of the last 4 halvings, courtesy of ChatGPT and research:

bitcoin

Has anyone seriously analyzed the Security Budget concern?

2minutebitcoin

btw a related thing:
> Every 4 years, Bitcoin needs to 2x in value to keep the security budget the same (all else equal); Otherwise it drops.

Here is the yearly-average price appreciation of the last 4 halvings, courtesy of ChatGPT and research:


| 🪙 Cycle                      | ⏱️ Years          | 📊 Start Avg Price |      📊 End Avg Price |                          💥 Multiple (×) |
| :---------------------------- | :---------------- | -----------------: | --------------------: | ---------------------------------------: |
| **1️⃣ 2012 → 2016**           | 1st → 2nd halving |             **$8** |              **$600** |                                **≈ 75×** |
| **2️⃣ 2016 → 2020**           | 2nd → 3rd halving |           **$600** |           **$11,000** |                              **≈ 18.3×** |
| **3️⃣ 2020 → 2024**           | 3rd → 4th halving |        **$11,000** |           **$70,000** |                              **≈ 6.36×** |
| **4️⃣ 2024 → 2025 (ongoing)** | 4th → current     |        **$60,637** | **$114,056 (latest)** | **≈ 1.8× (so far)** (3 years left to go) |


🪙 Cycle	⏱️ Years	📊 Start Avg Price	📊 End Avg Price	💥 Multiple (×)
1️⃣ 2012 → 2016	1st → 2nd halving	$8	$600	≈ 75×
2️⃣ 2016 → 2020	2nd → 3rd halving	$600	$11,000	≈ 18.3×
3️⃣ 2020 → 2024	3rd → 4th halving	$11,000	$70,000	≈ 6.36×
4️⃣ 2024 → 2025 (ongoing)	4th → current	$60,637	$114,056 (latest)	≈ 1.8× (so far) (3 years left to go)