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501 sats \ 7 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 27 Oct \ parent \ on: @Solomonsatoshi's bio
I predict if you do not lower the margins charged on bets you will probably never get mass adoption. It is a highly competitive market and if I make a bet and win it I need to get charged no more than 1% of the net gain to have sufficient incentive to continue participating. At present the margin charged seems to be far higher than 1% of net gain but it also seems to vary a lot which I cannot understand. The reward from making a correct bet is not currently sufficient to encourage new users to stay and more users to join. Other than that it is excellent!
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480 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 13h
Hey @Solomonsatoshi - thanks for sharing your insights and concern regarding the fees.
@Team_Predyx did an awesome job in explaining the nuances. However I thought it would be nice to clarify few more things:
  1. So far Predyx is not making profits from the fees collected. 100% of our markets run at a loss.
  2. Fees collected are deposited to the market wallet. When Predyx official team or any Creator creates a market, they need to provide the initial capital to provision the initial liquidity. In other words the "initial capital" means worst case loss (WCL) for the market creator. Thus the fees collected go directly into market wallet to offset the loss of the market creator. This how most of AMM (Automated market maker) works.
  3. The default fees for creating a market on Predyx is: 0.45% buy, 0.35% sell and 0.20% win + 1 sats fixed fee per transaction. However the creator can choose to set their own fees. They may choose to offer reduced fees or higher fees. The max fee cap is set to 5%.
There are some creators who choose to offer very minimal fee as low as 0.10% such as @BlokchainB, while there are other creators who choose to offer high fees of 4%.
Thus - it's in best interest of the trader to first check the market fees. And then decide to trade if you agree with the fees.
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @Team_Predyx 27 Oct
Ok. My bad I thought you were talking about design aspect of Predyx.
Sir, we are not charging higher than 1%. In fact the fees are far less than 1% and also much lesser than what our competitors are charging.
I suppose you haven't gone through the market page to full length, because there's a section where 'Market Fees' is clearly mentioned under the 'description'.
I hope it's clear to you now.
Thanks again.
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 23h
Yes I read the fees 1% but there are multiple markets I have placed predictions and the resulting return shows far less than they would if only 1% fee. Maybe I have not understood some aspect but will continue to monitor as the bets finalise as it seems from the current figures in my portfolio that more than 1% is extracted. For example I have 8000 shares against the prediction that bitcoin will reach USD$140k in 2025. I paid .65 for each share and market price is now .75 yet my profit is shown as only 112 sats or 2%. .75/.65 is much greater than 2%...it is over 15%.
Maybe I am not accounting for dynamics of odds/pricing if I were to sell them on market now?
If I wait until market closes and I win I should receive at least 100/65 x 8000- 1%?
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60 sats \ 3 replies \ @Team_Predyx 23h
If I wait until market closes and I win I should receive at least 100/65 x 8000- 1%?
In the above mentioned scenario you will recieve 7983 Sats.The win fee is only .20% and there's 1 sat fee for transaction on the market you mentioned. So this will be 17 Sats in fees deducted from your 8000 shares. (Each share you buy at Predyx stands for 1 satoshi.)
Maybe I am not accounting for dynamics of odds/pricing if I were to sell them on market now?
Yes sir. Predyx works on LMSR which reduces the odds if a sell happens and increases when a buy happens. There should be high volatility in odds in case the market has lower liquidity, and vice versa.
Selling before the market is ripe often is less rewarding because the LMSR detects the trend is shifting.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 23h
Ok Thanks for that and I stand corrected. Am impressed that the actual fees are very reasonable. Just the perception of gain is less due to market price dynamics. It must be quite a complex algorithm to price the ever changing market odds! Well done and all the best.
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65 sats \ 1 reply \ @Team_Predyx 23h
I'm happy I can clear the doubts.
I recommend you to place some predictions in higher liquidity markets if you're more of a trader. There are many markets on Predyx which have very high liquidity and corresponding volume that will reward traders much more relatively.
Here's an example what to look for if you want to enter and exit a market
The left one (red circle) is for the volume, the right one is for the liquidity.
Keep in mind the higher the liquidity and volume are on a market, the odds (what you called margins) are less volatile while trading i.e. while buying or selling both.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 22h
Yes that makes sense. I just love the chance to try and predict the future and see what others think too. It is a very interesting marketplace as you put your money where your mouth is and there is a real tendency for it to tend toward the truth due to market forces. We had a similar online market here in New Zealand years ago called 'ipredict' run by one of the universities statistics department, though it used fiat, and it was shut down by the government ruling party - that government did not appear to like a free and open marketplace in peoples expectations- they would rather try to control them! They have close associates will commercial polling companies... So imo prediction markets are a vital part of freedom of speech and democracy- as well as damn good fun. Hopefully bitcoin can help keep prediction markets open and free of government meddling and censorship.
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