2, your own and a miner, and then you connect to that miner. It's policy, not constrained by any threshold activation.

If you want to reliably be able to send a tx under the new policy, with outgoing connections only, at 32% adoption you would be able to do that reliably 95% of the time. With 125 connections, you need 0.3% adoption, much less than there is for v30 right now. But, you don't know how the v30 is configured.

For the inverse, to block every node with only outgoing transaction 95% of the time, you need about 99.4% of nodes to have a declining policy. With 125 connections, 99.96% of nodes is needed to block 95% of nodes from transmitting their txs.