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It does seem like reputation of a central market, spread across a large number of different individual predictions would help to make it so the oracle has no incentive other than veracity (or possibly lack of controversy).
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It does seem like reputation of a central market, spread across a large number of different individual predictions would help to make it so the oracle has no incentive other than veracity (or possibly lack of controversy).
Incentivizing honest oracles is the biggest problem, not the technology.
That's why I think this will always be coordinated through a centralized party that has a reputation to maintain and charges a small coordination fee.