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@lifofifo on X created an onchain futures contract for BIP 444.
Because BIP 444 proposes a soft fork that makes certain kinds of tapscript unspendable, it's not too hard to set up a 2 of 2 multisig that has two mutually exclusive spending paths, one of which relies on the kind of scripts BIP 444 proposes making invalid. Both sides of the bet presign transactions with a locktime after the proposed activation date.
Not only is there a setup for this kind of contract available:
But, it seems that some people are already putting their money where their mouth is on activation of the reduce data temporary soft fork.
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fantastic
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Note: these on-chain BIP-Knotz futures are not binary futures! They actually have three possible outcomes.
  1. Win
  2. Lose
  3. Chain Split
In the third option, a hash power minority mines enough blocks that Knots splits off into a separate currency. In that circumstance, both sides "win": the Knots side wins more Knots coins, and the Bitcoin side wins more Bitcoin.
Of course, as measured in Big Mac purchasing power, the Bitcoin side is almost certainly going to be the winner... But this (quite likely!) outcome does change the pricing for these futures a bit, in theory.
Trusted, off-chain, futures could take this situation into account too...
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stupid bets from stupid people that do not deserve bitcoin
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How can i play?
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So where is this activation client?
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hah, thats clever and fun.
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