I'm curious what my fellow stacker's thoughts are on this. How badly is the Bitcoin price manipulated and how is said manipulation executed? Any resources or links would be nice
10 sats \ 6 replies \ @tomlaies 11 Feb 2023
It is not manipulated. The exchange rate to Dollars is a result of demand & supply. That's it.
If someone was manipulating the exchange rate then there would be a market inefficency which would be an arbitrage opportunity and would get arbitraged away.
The reason the "street price" in p2p meetups is higher is because the increased untraceability of the exchanged fiat has a value. Thus it isn't actually the "street price" that is higher - you're just buying a service in addition to the exchanged Bitcoin.
I advice you not to listen to lunatics that think someone^TM is in control. They're just pathetic loosers that can't handle the feeling of having lost money - which is very indicative that they haven't fully understood Bitcoin and still think in a fiat standard in their heads.
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @SantaNotSanta OP 11 Feb 2023
interesting. I'm referring more to the historic price over years as opposed to the arbitrage between exchange/street price though.
saw this thread earlier and gave the video a watch.
#134697
the guy is entirely conviced that the entire previous market cycle was essentially whales manipulating the price.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @tomlaies 11 Feb 2023
It depends on your definition of "manipulation" then. I my book a big whale exchanging is a legit transaction with effects on demand & supply. That's not manipulation, that's just the free market.
It does sound like petty whining to me tho. What's the point, why does he care?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SantaNotSanta OP 11 Feb 2023
I think the definition of manipulation would be some groups, individuals, or entities who are able to control the price direction and profit unfairly be exercising undue influence.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Eximpius 11 Feb 2023
It wasn't whales manipulating prices, lol.. Its because they printed money and handed out to everyone while also paying people not to work!!!! A lot of that money went into "crypto"" and btc. Im sure a lot of PPP money did as well. Just like the housing market and other markets went up.. people bought assets with that NEW money
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @SantaNotSanta OP 11 Feb 2023
I don't think the two are necessarily entirely mutually exclusive. The covid helicopter money could have spurred on the bull market, and whales could have then taken the reigns and controlled the direction of the charge. i'm not saying that is what happened, just playing devils advocate.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Eximpius 11 Feb 2023
Anything is possible, for sure. Occam's razor says it's probably not a conspiracy from some group of whales though… The simple answer is normal economics playing out.
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15 sats \ 3 replies \ @IHL 11 Feb 2023
I think it can be an important question for some people and I hope you get some thoughtful answers. As for me, I am going to SHaSS. When/If enough people self-custody the ability to manipulate over the long run will be greatly reduced.
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48 sats \ 2 replies \ @SantaNotSanta OP 11 Feb 2023
"SHaSS"?
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33 sats \ 1 reply \ @IHL 11 Feb 2023
Stay Humble and Stack Sats, lol
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @SantaNotSanta OP 11 Feb 2023
now that you have spelled it out for me seems so obvious 🤦♂️
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @TheBTCManual 12 Feb 2023
Can certain people move the bitcoin to fiat price up and down more than others, sure, but its within a range. Exchanges on their own or together could collude to hit a certain price within the range that could clear out a few traders, especially if there is a big interest in longs or shorts, its hugely profitable for them
But I think there is a limit to what they can do, I think that if bitcoin is manipulated for any extended period of time, you'd see crazy premiums in the P2P market, like for example the kimchi premium, is a signal when btc liquidity is in demand in a certain market
Maybe I'm also biased because people who call manipulation are mostly chartists who are often the biggest cry wolfs because it's an easy catch-all explanation. For example someone can claim market manipulation but in that time, a government tax season could be happening creating selling or miners didn't get refinancing on loans and need to sell and you see big selling, but to find and date these effects from around the world is hard so you just summarise it as whales selling lol its so cringe
Personally, I wouldn't categorise a bitcoin market as manipulated because no ones going to shut it down if it gets too volatile, other assets markets can close, when traders can't stomach it, or the central bank comes in to provide a floor you don't get more manipulated than that
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SantaNotSanta OP 12 Feb 2023
or yea, another form of manipulation would be bank bailouts.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SantaNotSanta OP 12 Feb 2023
thanks for posting. good points. your final point caught my attention, it's abreally good one. that's another form of manipulation. e.g. NY stock exchange halting trading on a stock because of x y z reason
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @01xCc 12 Feb 2023
ты готов к росту по экспоненте? это будет забавно... только тогда поймешь что такое рост
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @satyagraha 12 Feb 2023
It isn't manipulated it is:
- Tiny
- Illiquid*
- Misunderstood
The price of bitcoin could be anything holders agreed on, and DCA & transaction buyers would still pay it.
Consequently the price is leaping and falling while voodoo charts attempt to map a random walk.
- "Liquidity refers to the efficiency or ease with which an asset or security can be converted into ready cash without affecting its market price. The most liquid asset of all is cash itself."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquidity.asp
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SantaNotSanta OP 12 Feb 2023
i think the fact that it is such a "tiny" market makes the possibility of manipulation more likely?
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Lurusan 11 Feb 2023
As long as we price things against USD anything can be manipulated. We saw paper Bitcoin on the FTX fiasco, which lets me thinking that other exchanges will have the audacity and ability to do so as well. As the comment above me pointed out, the only way to get rid of manipulation is to take self custody of your corn.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @SantaNotSanta OP 11 Feb 2023
yeah i mean this would be one form of manipulation right. they sell paper bitcoin, thus increasing the supply and lowering the market price.
interesting
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