That seems fair. It’s a pretty new thing so we probably need to FAFO for a bit to separate the wheat from the chaff. 

I guess it's a bit of a straw man but a lot of the people supporting prediction markets don't often make those qualifications or state where they think the predictive utility ends 

SimpleStacker

oracle

prediction markets aren't just gambling

south_korea_ln

> you can have a functioning prediction market for every event under the sun.

Is that a strawman or do people really expect that?

I wonder if they can’t absorb more of the financial sector than we’re anticipating, though. Most people don’t make investments for the purpose of actually owning the instruments they’re buying. They just want exposure to the asset growth. There might be less friction-y ways to do some of that stuff on a prediction market. 