The whole field of econometrics was essentially developed to help us distinguish changes caused by observable phenomena vs. unobservable phenomena like preference changes.



SimpleStacker

True, I was just trying to think about tariffs specific effects.

As a slight aside, one of the rules in economics is to avoid relying on preference changes as an explanation for anything, even though we know that preferences do change and there are effects. That's because we can't observe preferences and changing preferences can potentially explain anything.

econ

Trump’s Tariffs Run the Whiskey River Dry

Undisciplined

True, I was just trying to think about tariffs specific effects.

As a slight aside, one of the rules in economics is to avoid relying on preference changes as an explanation for anything, even though we know that preferences do change and there are effects. That's because we can't observe preferences and changing preferences can potentially explain anything.