I'm seeing a fair amount of chatter involving Citrea. I'd kind of forgotten about OP_CAT, but now got to wondering, "Where is the OP_CAT debate right now?" or "How far along is OP_CAT?"
I wondered what the odds might be for it ever getting enacted. Doing a quick search, nothing of the type seemed to exist on Kalshi or Polymarket that I could find. Too bad, that would be one that interests me (not to put money on, but to just look at the odds to get a sense for the feelings overall). I imagine OP_CAT would be a difficult one to put on such a market. As I understand, it isn't exactly a yes/no end result. Even if some bitcoiners enact OP_CAT, others might not, or they might fork another chain. Then, is it a yes or a no? Maybe the yes/no could be measured in hash rate, I dunno.
For a softfork to be activated, it needs to gain support. To gain support, people need to talk about it and address the concerns that were raised. There seem to be few people talking about OP_CAT and, as far as I am aware, the concerns have not been adequately addressed. It currently seems to have little momentum and there hasn’t even been an activation mechanism discussed, let alone an activation client published.
At this time, there seems to be a low likelihood of OP_CAT being adopted any time soon.
If a new feature introduced by a soft fork is enforced by a minority of the hashrate, it cannot be relied upon and therefore is unlikely to achieve any meaningful usage.
This is essentially what I was thinking.
For what it's worth, OP_CAT seems to be the most palatable covenants proposal on the Bitcoin covenants support wiki...but it's been this way for quite a while. Doesn't seem to be much momentum on covenants in general right now.
I see a lot of green on OP_CAT and only two reds and two yellows. That's pretty good on the scoreboard. But, as you point out...enthusiasm, momentum.