Couple of things in there that troubled me, especially the defense that a successful predictor can use proceeds to help victims of bad stuff:
Critics of prediction markets also overlook the possibility that the money bettors earn can be used to mitigate the harms of the very disasters they predict. Suppose someone correctly predicts that a hurricane will make landfall and profits from a prediction market as a result. They now have additional resources that can be used to mitigate the suffering caused by the hurricane. They can donate to emergency relief, help fund rebuilding efforts, support local clinics, or contribute to flood mitigation projects. So if you’re concerned that a catastrophe is likely to occur, making an accurate prediction and allocating your winnings to help those harmed by the catastrophe is far more productive than simply watching it unfold.
Gambling is not positive-sum; the winners and losers put up more in advance, minus platform/house fee, and then the winner walk away with less than sum[winners+losers]... so in expectation, given that everyone wanted to alleviate bad shit happening, those suffering from e.g., hurricanes would be strictly better off if both winners and losers abstained from gambling and just donated to relief.
THe moral outrage at prediction market probably isn't just that, but also the commodification of previously non-commoditized objects (hashtag Beckert...).
Also, I can't stop thinking that while fun for me, it's kind of a useless thing. Life is better if nobody plays betting markets, no?
I suppose prediction market supporters would argue that even if the gambling is zero sum, the market itself has positive potential externalities. (The price in the market reflects accurate probabilities which even non-market-participants can utilize to make better decisions)
True, true... And maybe the market is just underdeveloped now but in the future people in e.g. Hurricane areas will check them the same as they check weather forecast (or weather forecast will take predictions into account etc etc)
I can see the morality pretzel you can find yourself in by making profit on evil outcomes but the fact is evil still happens. You can always be in the good side and bet with your conscience but that could leave you poor in the long run.
America spends almost $1T a year on death and destruction. The military industrial complex is built on profit not morality. The level of betting doesn’t come close to the racket war has become.
The issue rests mostly on scenarios where the individual making a bet for something negative is actively incentivized to encourage, promote or even kickstart the negative event. For example, a user may bet in favor of a riot breaking out at a certain event. That individual is now financially incentivized to see that riot happen and succeed.
The problem is that betting in a bad outcome incentivices you to exert your influence, even if extremely small, to make that pad thing happen. If you are predicting a hurricane you have no inflence at all (I think), so no harm. If you are predicting a war, you may have miniscule influence (which given enough people can grow to be non-insignificant. Also some people actually have more than miniscule influence in such events (and they can also bet on these markets).
Basically the problem is the similar the fixing matches in sports betting.
Couple of things in there that troubled me, especially the defense that a successful predictor can use proceeds to help victims of bad stuff:
Gambling is not positive-sum; the winners and losers put up more in advance, minus platform/house fee, and then the winner walk away with less than sum[winners+losers]... so in expectation, given that everyone wanted to alleviate bad shit happening, those suffering from e.g., hurricanes would be strictly better off if both winners and losers abstained from gambling and just donated to relief.
THe moral outrage at prediction market probably isn't just that, but also the commodification of previously non-commoditized objects (hashtag Beckert...).
Also, I can't stop thinking that while fun for me, it's kind of a useless thing. Life is better if nobody plays betting markets, no?
I suppose prediction market supporters would argue that even if the gambling is zero sum, the market itself has positive potential externalities. (The price in the market reflects accurate probabilities which even non-market-participants can utilize to make better decisions)
True, true... And maybe the market is just underdeveloped now but in the future people in e.g. Hurricane areas will check them the same as they check weather forecast (or weather forecast will take predictions into account etc etc)
Scientists get paid for predicting natural disasters, too. No one seems to have a problem with that.
I can see the morality pretzel you can find yourself in by making profit on evil outcomes but the fact is evil still happens. You can always be in the good side and bet with your conscience but that could leave you poor in the long run.
America spends almost $1T a year on death and destruction. The military industrial complex is built on profit not morality. The level of betting doesn’t come close to the racket war has become.
The issue rests mostly on scenarios where the individual making a bet for something negative is actively incentivized to encourage, promote or even kickstart the negative event. For example, a user may bet in favor of a riot breaking out at a certain event. That individual is now financially incentivized to see that riot happen and succeed.
The problem is that betting in a bad outcome incentivices you to exert your influence, even if extremely small, to make that pad thing happen.
If you are predicting a hurricane you have no inflence at all (I think), so no harm.
If you are predicting a war, you may have miniscule influence (which given enough people can grow to be non-insignificant. Also some people actually have more than miniscule influence in such events (and they can also bet on these markets).
Basically the problem is the similar the fixing matches in sports betting.
betting disaster can be used as hedging. its a good thing ⚡⚡