This is in reply to @ch0k1 post on SpaceX News

I've predicted long ago that the Moon would be colonized first. (sorry no proof)

My main reason for thinking this was by observing how SpaceX learns and iterates on their rocket progress. Preferably one has short learning cycles, i.e. blow up a rocket quick to learn and improve. I've been following SpaceX for a long time now and to see how they developed from the Grasshopper into self landing falcon rockets has been very indicative to understand their method.

So then why would you go to Mars, wait for 6 months (on average) to have your feedback on how your rocket blew up, if you can instead try the same thing on the Moon and just wait for 3 days to make a new landing attempt.

Furthermore, if you first learn how to build a base on the Moon, wouldn't you learn all the things you need to make it on Mars. I mean, if you can't do it on Luna, then why do you think you can do it on Mars? The plan was already to have people on Mars live underground, so that whole atmosphere thing was not really contributing much anyway.

Why Mars?

Mars was marketing-wise a smart move. Yes, that is the next planet to colonize. The fear Musk promoted was the destruction of Earth by comet/meteor impact. But such a comet strike would leave Earth in tact, so subsequently the Moon would not have the risk of spinning out of orbit.

I believe Mars was also an idea firmly set in that club in Los Angeles Musk would attend. These guys were fixated on terraforming Mars and might had a reasonable influence on Elon either idea wise or financially.

Often it is also a good idea to set out a giant goal into the future in order to create the human fuel needed to reach that target. The Moon in that sense was just less exciting and a 60s kinda idea. By planning for Mars, the Moon was already included.

Furthermore, the Moon, as it is much closer to Earth in distance and imagination, is also a strategic / military spot. If you can occupy a place high up the Earth's gravity well you get all kinds of advantages (as depicted in Heinlein's novel). By focussing on Mars for so long, the military debate was also conveniently postponed.

Keep on dreaming guys, but the real price is the Moon; the Gateway to the rest of the Solar System and the key to control Earth.