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What are your thoughts on my point about activation?
I still find that many BIP 110 supporters use a line of argument that rests an assumption of an eventual hash majority mining on the BIP 110 compliant chain. I agree that if a miner were to operate with that assumption, it plays out as melvin lays out here.
However, in the event that a miner is not certain that such a hash majority will mine on the BIP 110 compliant chain, it seems to me that the miner does indeed have a lot to lose by choosing the BIP 110 chain. It would be bad to be on the wrong (read: with less hash) side of the split no matter which side that is. However, things like melvin's here don't acknowledge this.
You know, I think I was confused by the framing of the website. I thought it would only activate if 55% of miners signal, but I think you're right - if it's going to activate regardless, then the game theory changes. It's definitely not a dominant strategy to ever mine on a minority chain.
If less than 50% signal, can't everyone just stop running BIP-110?
Sure, but as you get close to activation, especially if you are a miner, you would probably want to be sure that you can switch back to whatever you were running before without any hiccups.
once it activates, I think the odds that a block gets mined containing BIP 110 banned txs is very high, as in, probably in the first few blocks post activation. That block will cause all BIP 110 nodes to split off. So, if you are going to just stop, you need to do it before the split.
I'm trying to think of a reason to treat the other category as "doesn't activate" and the best I can think of is that he's thinking no one will run it at that point.
This definitely does look like an AI generated website. Why do BIP 110 supporters seem to rely so much on AI?
On the other hand, I think the game theory seems sound. But it's entirely because group A will be intolerant but group B will be tolerant. If the majority become intolerant, the game theory is to also become intolerant, but there's usually no cost to being intolerant within a tolerant majority.
Seems true to life and history, in a black sort of way.