Is it a Bitcoin rite of passage to believe the price is going to $1M with a year or 2 of you buying it?
And then when it doesn't happen, and then a cycle or two passes, you are humbled and realize it's just going to be a very slow grind up from here?
Can anyone else from the class of 2021 relate?
I’m class of ‘22 but I never expected a million by now, although that is my estimate for the proper valuation.
3.4 million according to this model #49434
lol. When we hitting 3.4M?
Any day now, obviously.
That’s not discounted to present value though
I think it is though because it's using present prices. If dollars continue to debase when the world actually hyperbitcoinizes, the price of bitcoin then will be worth even more than 3.4 million at that time
That ignores time-preference, as I read it.
Depending how far out that $3.4M is, I may prefer $1M today.
It gets kinda weird. I obviously prefer $1M today than 1 bitcoin, because I can buy lots of bitcoin with $1M.
Again, bitcoin doesn't really have a valuation that can be pinned down with fundamentals. Until a significant amount of long-term contracts are denominated in bitcoin, it doesn't have much of a valuation grounding.
It does get weird and I guess that's to account for risk type stuff.
The estimate I'm thinking of put a future valuation of about $10M and then came up with 1M present dollars as the amount you'd need to invest at normal market rates of return to end up at $10M by that date.
I feel like during the 2021 run up EVERYONE was calling for 300K "by Christmas" when the price was at 40K.
Then at the ATHs in 2024 and 2024 basically EVERYONE was calling for 1M in 2026
I always assumed it would take until 2030 or beyond to get to 1M.
At this point it might be 2035 if we don't get some kind of catalyst that forces people into Bitcoin because 99.9% of people still don't understand it.
yeah I think most people including myself who have been around for at least 4+ years are thinking 2030/2032+ now
Gradually then suddenly is a thing. I expect we will slowly grind up in the coming years but there is always the chance of a tipping point where everyone seems to lose faith in fiat at the same time and we get there in a span of a few months.
I like to think any night a God candle might come
We're going to 58k and then 30, probably lower.
Does that make you feel better?
within* a year or 2