Since the beginning of the year, virtually all of Brent's rise has come from the geopolitical premium.
The contribution from demand has been relatively stable, while supply factors have even exerted negative pressure at times.
That's a cool model…
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Always has been
Oil moves in tankers and pipelines
Tankers depends on Navies, pipelines depend on air defense
Navies and air supremacy are the enforcement arm of geopolitics
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Oil geopolitics never really went away - we just pretended renewables would save us from hard choices. Energy independence isn't about solar panels, it's about controlling supply chains. Bitcoin mining is actually part of this equation.