pull down to refresh

By Connor O’Keeffe

The problem with this new campaign in Iran is not merely that it will likely have bad near-term consequences, but that it represents the American government doubling down on the imperial project that is causing our accelerating national crisis.
64 sats \ 6 replies \ @Akg10s3 3h

Without a doubt! Trump is wrong this time!

Although I do agree with what he did in Venezuela, since those poor people are mired in misery and there are millions of Venezuelan migrants!

reply

Venezuela seems different because Maduro was basically sold out by his underlings, as I understand it. That means there was something in place for after his removal.

reply
50 sats \ 2 replies \ @Akg10s3 3h

I agree with you!

Now we just have to wait and see what will happen politically in that country, since right now the government's power is in a sort of limbo...

reply

How have things been for regular people since the removal?

I know it wasn't great in the immediate aftermath.

reply
58 sats \ 0 replies \ @Akg10s3 2h

There is still no real, tangible improvement.

And I would say that the main obstacle for those still living in Venezuela to move towards a better future is the parasitic and state-dependent mindset left by more than 25 years of socialism.

Without a doubt, socialism is a cancer!

reply
69 sats \ 1 reply \ @freetx 3h

There is so much to say about this that its hard to summarize, but to try:

Its basically impossible to imagine how "America gets something out of Iran" war. The idea that we are going to drop a few weeks of bombs and suddenly Iran is going to love Israel and the 2 will exist in some sort of lasting peace is beyond the limits of credulity.

It is, however, possible to imagine US gets something out of toppling Maduro.

reply
75 sats \ 0 replies \ @Akg10s3 2h

If they want to obtain economic natural resources while simultaneously appearing to the general public as a kind of liberating nation...

That's a good move...

And I also say that peace between Iran and Israel is not going to happen; this rivalry or division has existed for centuries...

reply

The number of dumb shits that can't tell the difference between starting forever war and ending one is too damn high

reply

May we see them end at some point or are we required to take your word for it?

reply

Decapitation and ~80% degradation in under a week is warp-speed progress relative to the last 50 years of pussy-footing

Petro self-sufficiency in the last 10 years has been a rapid change of incentives over the last 80 years

Every neighboring country has been aggressed, aligning incentives against regional tail risk

The treasury has cut the balls off the London Financial Center by using this as a trigger to re-shore maritime insurance

Cutting the balls off the London Financial Center helps makes Israel a US puppet, not the Chatham House puppet its been since the Europeans created it

There's basically no path to laundering trillions over a decade+ like was done in Iraq, which was largely only justified by keeping it out of Iran's hands

The only tail risk I see, which no dumb shit normies regurgitating NGO slop, libertarian cope, and TDS are talking about... is if this a setup for cassus belli with China... who has technical officers beta testing their hypersonics and satellite constellation based targeting from within Iran as a proxy

I'm of the belief we've had a backroom deal with China to avoid something major with Taiwan, but that doesn't mean the greater pacific containment issue won't go hot.

It's almost like the legion of .mil planners know shit that armchair virtue signalers don't

reply

Make a concrete falsifiable prediction, so we can gauge who the real dumbshit is.

Will we be out of Iran within the year? Spend less than $1T? Kill fewer than 10,000 people? Lose fewer than 1000 Americans? What observable benefit will we see and when?

reply

Are your falsifiable predictions that DoW we will spend 1T on this or lose 1k Americans?

Not a chance of either, only way that happens if is this goes mask off with China directly

IRGC is allegedly 190k personnel, so any number under that is over performance.

Benefit is we spend less in Saudi and the region generally as overall risk pricing comes down with the tumor removed

Whatever private investment productivity can grow from that is gravy on top

reply

Well this is a different perspective. Sounds like something Tom Luongo would say

reply