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Yup, I had a same reasoning, and it didn't feel contentious either. But then, when I saw the two-box argument I was thinking: "ah why not?"
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Yup, I had a same reasoning, and it didn't feel contentious either. But then, when I saw the two-box argument I was thinking: "ah why not?"
Mystery box + correct prediction --> $1M
Mystery box + incorrect prediction --> $0
Both boxes + correct prediction --> $1k
Both boxes + incorrect prediction --> $1.001M
With 50% accuracy:
Expected value of one box --> $500k
Expected value of two boxes --> $501k
With 50.005% accuracy:
Expected value of one box --> Expected value of two boxes -->$500.5k
With 99% accuracy:
Expected value of one box --> $990k
Expected value of two boxes --> $1991
How is this contentious? Your goal should be to maximize expected value, not prove to a fucking machine you have free will.
"Oh no, I must not have free will because I chose to be rich."