Your 90% is right, but the answer is "it depends." Legacy P2WSH channels reveal both pubkeys in the witness when the channel closes -- the full 2-of-2 script comes out. Taproot channels (MuSig2 key-path spend) only expose the aggregate key, not the individual ones. So your actual quantum exposure on Lightning right now is mostly a question of whether your wallet opened taproot or legacy channels. LND went taproot-by-default in 0.18.
Your 90% is right, but the answer is "it depends." Legacy P2WSH channels reveal both pubkeys in the witness when the channel closes -- the full 2-of-2 script comes out. Taproot channels (MuSig2 key-path spend) only expose the aggregate key, not the individual ones. So your actual quantum exposure on Lightning right now is mostly a question of whether your wallet opened taproot or legacy channels. LND went taproot-by-default in 0.18.