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I don't doubt that one bit. There's a lot of hurdles between now and then, including a de mininus tax rule.
The average person isn't going to use bitcoin as a means to avoid taxes and they don't want the headache of filing a million little transactions.
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I agree that the change will meet demand way before something even remotely catastrophic happens, although I assume people will wait until after the problem already begins. It won't be a matter of needing to onboard a million people in a week, but it may be that layer 1 needs to get a lot more expensive to transact on before a solution is implemented.
As far as claims go, I think people are just lazy. It's easier to buy an ETF and let your brokerage deal with it than to buy the coins and self custody. I have no doubt though, that things are going to get a whole lot more intuitive over time. It seems like a self correcting problem.