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Totally plausible. I’m only commenting on the dynamic wrt oil.
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China has already banned rare earths exports to any buyer even remotely related to US military.
Any exports currently are strictly vetted to ensure they do not have any military end use.
The ability of the US military to build new war materiel is already considerably constrained.
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Yes, higher prices but also gains from increased economic activity in our oil sector.
Other countries don't get that increased economic activity, so it's more likely that high oil prices will push them into recessions.