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91 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Apr \ on: Prediction Markets Are All Zero-Sum Grift (Matt Levine, Money Stuff) Stacker_Sports econ

If there are parties using prediction markets as hedges, doesn’t that potentially allow them to have positive expected value for everyone else?

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56 sats \ 4 replies \ @denlillaapan OP 28 Apr

there are no parties using prediction markets as hedges, I think the claim is

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29 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Apr

Maybe not now, but is there a good reason why that wouldn't happen?

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55 sats \ 2 replies \ @denlillaapan OP 28 Apr

Sure sure sure, but if things were different I'd have a different opinion

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26 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 28 Apr

I'm just pointing out that it's not unreasonable to expect these to be better than fair at some point, which isn't something I've seen anyone say before.

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7 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan OP 29 Apr

Hoooopeful. We shall see

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