There is quite a hot debate in NFL media and social media circles about the 49ers draft strategy.
People are taking sides and digging in. Are the 49ers terrible at drafting? Look how many reaches and misses with early picks. Are they good at drafting? Look how many pro bowlers and All pros they have drafted in mid to late rounds.
Seems like both sides are correct the 49ers have whiffed a lot early and had a ton of success late. But that doesn't give us the definitive answer we require. Do the 49ers suck at drafting?
I am here to solve this debate once and for all. Unlike butt hurt, DCOE obsessed Warren Sharp (I like Warren but judging drafts on one metric that probably means absolutely nothing after pick 20 is really stupid) I won't just judge the regime on 4 drafts but the entirety of their tenure. We will go back in time to 2017 and judge every 49ers draft (excluding 2026- I refuse to judge a draft before a player takes a snap regardless how bad or good it looks). I have done no pre-work on this and have no clue what the results will be. I will judge each pick in the draft each year based on the following rating system.
Great- 10 points (All pro, pro bowl level player or excellent value for the round selected)
Good- 5 points (Starter level player or key rotational piece or decent value for round selected)
Meh- 0 points (Not good-not bad, or never amounted to anything but late pick)
Bad- -5 points (Player never amounted to anything or was bad value for round selected)
Terrible- -10 points (Player was a bust or akin to setting draft capital on fire)
Let's go!
2017
R1 (3) Solomon Thomas- Bad (injury plagued never amounted to much)
R1 (31) Reuben Foster- Terrible (off the field issues)
R3 (66) Ahkello Witherspoon- Good (starting CB in the league for many years)
R3 (104) CJ Beathard- Meh (Career backup QB)
R4 (121) Joe Williams- Bad (never amounted to anything)
R5 (146) George Kittle- Great (All pro, HoFer)
R5 (177) Trent Taylor- Good (Quality depth WR for many years)
R6 (198) DJ Jones- Great (Amazing value in R6 for a good, starting DE)
R6 (202) Pita Taumoepenu- Meh (never amounted to anything but R6)
R7 (229) Adrian Colbert- Meh (never amounted to anything but R7)
2017 score: +5
2018
R1 (9) Mike McGlinchey- Meh (Good starting RT for many years but pick 9 so meh)
R2 (44) Dante Pettis- Bad (Never amounted to anything)
R3 (70) Fred Warner- Great (All pro, HoFer)
R3 (95) Tarvarius Moore- Meh (had some run but never amounted to much)
R4 (128) Kentavius Street- Meh (career backup, never amounted to much)
R5 (142) DJ Reed- Good (solid starting CB for many years)
R6 (184) Marcell Harris- Meh (never amounted to anything but R6)
R7 (223) Julian Taylor- Meh (never amounted to anything but R7)
R7 (240) Richie James- Meh (never amounted to anything but R7)
2018 score: +10
2019
R1 (2) Nick Bosa- Great (All pro, DPOY, consistently a top 5 DE in NFL)
R2 (36) Deebo Samuel- Good (Pro Bowler but peak came fast)
R3 (67) Jalen Hurd- Bad (never amounted to anything)
R4 (110) Mitch Wishnowsky- Terrible (a punter?? he was not bad but this is draft capital set on fire)
R5 (148) Dre Greenlaw- Great (one of the best LB in NFL for a number of years)
R6 (176) Kaden Smith- Meh (never amounted to anything but R6)
R6 (183) Justin Skule- Good (Decent career as a swing tackle)
R6 (198) Tim Harris- Meh (never amounted to anything but R6)
2019 score: +15
2020
R1 (14) Javon Kinlaw- Bad (decent player but battled injuries and never fulfilled promise of a mid 1st rounder)
R1 (25) Brandon Aiyuk- Good (could have been great if he didn't become a lunatic)
R5 (153) Colton McKivitz- Good (many years as an above avg starting RT)
R6 (190) Charlie Woerner- Good (solid TE2 for many years)
R7 (217) Jauan Jennings- Good (good starting WR in the 7th)
2020 score: +15
2021
R1 (3) Trey Lance- Terrible x 3 (bust and set 2 more first round picks on fire to draft him so 3 x terrible)
R2 (48) Aaron Banks- Meh (Banks was good until injuries derailed him)
R3 (88) Trey Sermon- Bad (never amounted to anything)
R3 (102) Ambry Thomas- Meh (decent ST but never amounted to much at CB)
R5 (155) Jaylon Moore- Good (good swing tackle in R5)
R5 (172) DeMo Lenoir- Great (good CB1, great value in R5)
R5 (180) Talanoa Hufanga- Great (All pro S in R5- should have kept him)
R6 (194) Elijah Mitchell- Good (injuries plagued him but very good RB2)
2021 score: -5
2022
R2 (61) Drake Jackson- Terrible (Bad upgraded to terrible because they passed on Nick Bonito to draft him)
R3 (93) Tyrion Davis Price- Bad (never amounted to anything)
R3 (105) Danny Gray- Bad (never amounted to anything)
R4 (134) Spencer Burford- Meh (Down graded from good because he forgot to block Chris Jones in SB)
R5 (172) Samuel Womack- Meh (great ST but never amounted to anything at CB)
R6 (187) Nick Zakelj- Meh (showed promise but never amounted to anything)
R6 (220) Kalia Davis- Good (nice rotational DL who can start in a pinch in R6)
R6 (221) Tariq Castro Fields- Meh (never amounted to much)
R7 (262) Brock Purdy- Great (Good Starting QB in the 7th round- massive value)
2022 score: -5
2023
R3 (67) Ji'ayir Brown- Meh (Was trending good but last year knocked him down a peg)
R3 (99) Jake Moody- Terrible (Stupid Stupid Stupid waste of draft capital on a stupid kicker)
R3 (101) Cam Latu- Bad (never amounted to anything)
R5 (155) Darrel Luter Jr- Meh (shown promise but hasn't amounted to much)
R5 (173) Robert Beal Jr- Meh (shown promise but hasn't amounted to much)
R6 (216) Dee Winters- Good (Quality depth/decent starting LB in 6th swapped for a 5th)
R7 (247) Brayden Willis- Meh (fun player but hasn't amounted to much)
R7 (253) Ronnie Bell- Meh (never amounted to anything but R7)
R7 (255) Jalen Graham- Meh (showed promise but hasn't amounted to much)
2023 score: -10
2024
R1 (31) Ricky Pearsall- Meh (looks great when healthy but hasn't stayed healthy enough to warrant a good)
R2 (64) Renardo Green- Good (some inconsistency but solid CB2 in late 2nd)
R3 (86) Dominick Puni- Good (quality starting RG with high ceiling)
R4 (124) Malik Mustapha- Good (Starting S, great rookie year, bit of a down year coming off injury last year)
R4 (129) Isaac Guerendo- Bad (no vision, fumbles, looks like a bust, other good backs were available)
R4 (135) Jacob Cowing- Meh (showed promise in rookie year but missed all of last season with an injury)
R6 (215) Jarrett Kingston- Meh (never amounted to anything but R6)
R7 (251) Tatum Bethune- Meh (showing promise but too limited to be graded good)
2024 score: +10
2025
R1 (11) Mykel Williams- Meh (looked good but got hurt so impossible to know if he was worth 11 yet)
R2 (43) Alfred Collins- Good (Starting DT, trended up all season)
R3 (75) Nick Martin- Bad (huge reach for a guy with promise but never saw the field)
R3 (100) Upton Stout- Good (Starting nickel CB, had a great rookie season)
R4 (113) CJ West- Good (rotational quality DT, trending up all season)
R4 (138) Jordan Watkins- Meh (showed promise in training camp but got hurt and didn't play much)
R5 (147) Jordan James- Meh (looked good in limited action, better to asses after year 2)
R5 (160) Marques Sigle- Meh (starting S potential but inconsistent better to asses after year 2)
R7 (227) Kurtis Rourke- Meh (QB3 in 7th round looks ok but unknown at this point)
2025 score: +10
Final score: +45 which averages to a slightly positive +5 per draft.
Conclusion: The 49ers don't suck at drafting but they are also not one of the better drafting teams. Based on my clearly rock solid scientific formula they are slightly positive but the issue is they accumulate almost all their point value in the later rounds and had most of their negative point value in the early rounds. One could argue if you drafted a HoFer in the 3rd or 5th they still would have been a great pick in the 1st so who cares where you drafted them but the big early misses and stupid decisions like taking punters and kickers in the mid rounds has the 49ers underperforming their potential. Considering the consistent hits they have gotten in late rounds, they should probably be a top 5 drafting team and are more likely middle of the pack.
Solution: As I have already suggested I think the solution is simple but unlikely to get adopted because Shanahan won't give up power over final say on offensive players. They should hire a proven nerd talent evaluator (Howie Roseman's #2 just left the Eagles) and give them the reigns for all top 100 picks and then let Kyle, John and all the coaches do what they want based on their mysterious magical board in rounds 4-7. Highly likely to happen though.
Sats for all,
GR
I don’t think they should get credit for
R1 (2) Nick Bosa- Great (All pro, DPOY, consistently a top 5 DE in NFL)
Consensus best player in that draft that was only available at #2 because the Cardinals took Murray at 1. Any GM would have made that pick with 0 hesitation.
It looks like remaining #1s are either in a range of meh - terrible x3
I am just grading based on whether the pick was good or not. If they don’t get credit for Bosa should they still get docked for Solomon Thomas because he was the consensus #3 and that’s where they picked him.
Better to judge did the pick work out or not.
fair logic. Can also be judged on who could’ve been drafted in their place. Christian could’ve been a career 49er
That would have been cool but when Shanahan and Lynch took over their first priority was to rebuild the defense. I am always a little cautious with the "they could've drafted this guy instead" discussions. I mean last year pundits were saying the 49ers should draft Jalon Walker because he was a better talent than Mykel Williams. Well that might be true but the 49ers under Saleh were running a 4-3, wide 9 scheme why the hell would they draft an undersized OLB. They aren't going to change their scheme for one guy.
Pundits and fans don't seem to get that teams have different boards based on scheme, needs, culture, medicals etc. So it's easy to say why didn't they take Jalon Walker instead of Mykel Williams but Jalon Walker would have sucked on the 49ers because he is too small to set the edge in the run.
Mahomes would’ve been the right answer regardless haha. imagine him on the 9ers and how history would look
Yeah for all 9 teams that drafted in front of the Chiefs.
Shanahan with Mahomes would have been dangerous especially in those early years when the roster was young and stacked. Definitely multiple Super Bowl wins. Potentially 4.
This is a fun thought experiment. Maybe I will do a poll tomorrow.
you should build the best 49er team with hindsight advantage since John lynch took over in the 1st round vs what he actually did.
you’d have Mahomes and Justin Jefferson as an example
You could probably do that with every team, not just the 49ers and end up with a roster stacked with Pro Bowlers.
What’s so funny is aside from the Lance draft trade, the 49ers have done really well getting value out of their trades. They are notoriously stingy on the trade market. But value in picks doesn’t seem to matter to them.
Would you agree that Christian Mccaffery (traded) would be the most important player to the 49ers success in recent years.
If he’s healthy you’re great. If he’s not (2024) you go 6-11 and finish 4th in the NFC West?
That’s sort of what I was thinking. It’s not like he’s the one blowing up the cap.
Yes, I would agree with that.
The even more obvious solution is staring you right in the face from within your division: F' them picks.
The problem with this exercise is that you need to know what other teams' draft boards looked like. If the guy they wanted was going to get snagged by another team, then it's not a reach. It might still be a bad pick, though.
Taking Warner or Kittle in the first would be bad drafting because it would have been a reach, but not because it's poor value.
Unfortunately it is a cap sport and certain position's values are skyrocketing so you can't completely F them picks. You can probably F them picks for a year or two but you will end up in cap hell if you do it too much.
Should the 49ers have traded pick 27 for AJ Brown instead of drafting a WR (maybe) or they could have traded pick 70 for an edge rusher like Jonathon Greenard like the Eagles did but you gotta pay these guys.
You probably break even, more or less, trading high picks for quality vets. That's a lot better than what the 49ers manage in the draft.
It might work for the 49ers since they draft so poorly early that the cost savings doesn't matter because they have to bring in and pay a FA like Mike Evans anyways.
Maybe they should just package their 1 and 2 picks and try to target top talent entering year 3 or 4 that teams aren't likely to extend. Then you get young and cost controllable for a couple years.
the move for them is to trade their 1,2,3 licks for a teams 4-7 picks for like 5 years.
49er 1 for team xyz 4-7 round picks for next 5 years
49er 2 for 4-7 for next 2 years
49er 3 for 4-7
who says no
I like my solution better but that is an interesting idea. They did say the like having more picks. That would give them a lot more picks.
I wonder if the league would say no
Great work!! I wish you would of put the positions next to the names I was listing to a sports show and they were ripping Lynch for reaching on RBs and how they almost never pan out
This gave me a chuckle
If people are complaining about RBs they should be ripping Shanahan not Lynch. RBs are Kyle's obsession.
Yes they have missed a lot on RBs. The good ones they have drafted have been late and they hit on a couple undrafted free agents as well. They should never take a RB before the 5th round but they do it anyways.
They should draft Simpson at 13
Is it just luck? Puka Nacua in the fifth?
Trevor Lawrence and baker mayfield both #1 but not Super Bowl worthy
Not like Sam Darnold!!
I think there is some luck to it.
oof missed the edit window after all that hard work.
*** last sentence should be "Highly unlikely to happen though."