Ok, so the topic of falling populations and declining birthrates comes up a lot, and it seems to affect almost all countries, apart from a few in Africa, where they are still cranking out babies.
A good example, in Bulgaria, since the 90s, they have lost like a third of their population, 9 mil down to 6 with no sign of stopping.
I constantly see things about how utterly cooked Japan and SK are as well, but it's the same everywhere.
No government seems to have a successful way of stopping this, so my question is, what exactly happens to economies when the fall keeps happening?
Some things are clear: PAYG pensions will collapse, but what other things might happen? (unless Germany has to somehow pay for all of the EUs pensions because somehow it has magical teats that somehow never run dry?)
Will all remaining populations just converge into a few cities, leaving most places like ghost towns?
Will societies go through a massive general collapse because there isn't enough consumption?
Honestly, the thought of fewer people sounds appealing to me, less people = less assholes to deal with, but that's the misanthropy talking.
What does a low population mean in reality?
fewer innovations (the genius effect), lower division of labor/specialization (can't extend trade as deeply), and the PAYG systems via public provision obviously dies -- but the underappreciated aspect is that private savings via assets (real estate, stock markets) also falls apart (= no buyers, or rather more dissavers -- luxury boomers consuming -- than savers)
Another aspect is that durable capital per person increases, so there are productivity gains (until things fall apart and can't be repaired/replaced).
not sure how well the avg young person is learning how to operate this durable capital though
A lot of it is infrastructure and buildings. Regardless, the most marginal uses of labor will contract first, which should be productivity enhancing.
As people reach end of life the question comes to those who are left behind (spouse, other family). Can they or do they want to stay there? That decision sums it all up.
I don't know about this question but I think the next post should be about exploring Germany's potentially magical teats.
We need to remove television from the home 🏡 = lots bonking
Probably less mass production and more customized on-demand unique products.
People like to cluster with others even if they could easily live in the woods all the time.
Long Life and Immortality will be the new goals.
A person expecting to live forever will make sure he has an income stream that will allow him to prosper throughout his natural lifespan of about 1,000 years.
Less people could be a good perspective to review wisely your business before the big demand.