It is kind of odd tbh. It should flip, but given the increase in gerrymandering across the US, it might not this cycle because of Virginia fumbling its efforts. For years, Republican states were not nearly as gerrymandered as people thought, but over the last 6 years, the Republicans started to, and then the Democrats went, " Oh snap, we need to do more and so it has created a cycle.
A prime example is the entire northeast. There are no House Republicans, but Republicans receive 40%+ in most of those states, so there is a representation issue. Illinois is another state that, for decades, was known to be bad. Texas clearly kicked off the sprint last year, but the efforts the Dems made to offset it prompted more Republican states to do the same, further tilting it.
It is kind of odd tbh. It should flip, but given the increase in gerrymandering across the US, it might not this cycle because of Virginia fumbling its efforts. For years, Republican states were not nearly as gerrymandered as people thought, but over the last 6 years, the Republicans started to, and then the Democrats went, " Oh snap, we need to do more and so it has created a cycle.
A prime example is the entire northeast. There are no House Republicans, but Republicans receive 40%+ in most of those states, so there is a representation issue. Illinois is another state that, for decades, was known to be bad. Texas clearly kicked off the sprint last year, but the efforts the Dems made to offset it prompted more Republican states to do the same, further tilting it.