He has outs but none of them are good.
Here is how I see it. The market really has Saylor pinned down here. He sacrificed his rook (cash reserve) to eliminate an opposing pawn (convertible debt) hoping for a better angle of attack. It failed. The market is Magnus Carlsen and snuffed his attack out with ease.
To counter his current positional predicament he can sell more MSTR equity to build back up his cash reserve which means MSTR gets crushed. He can sell Bitcoin to build back up his cash reserve, which means Bitcoin and MSTR by proxy get crushed. He can increase the STRC dividend yield to make it more attractive, which will bleed his cash reserves faster. Or he can simply do nothing, let STRC find a bottom, pay the dividends and hope that before his cash reserves run out there is a sustained recovery in Bitcoin, leading to an MSTR rally that he can exploit to buy himself more time on the board.
It will be fascinating to watch how this plays out.
Sats for all,
GR
(how did I do on the chess analogy @denlillaapan?)
Steady lads everything is going just fine. It’s a bear market so everything looks like it’s going to blow up at these bitcoin price levels.
I find it so funny everyone piling on Saylor while every last bitcoiner is down what over 50% from last July!
STRC drops 15-20% and now Saylor is in a rock and a hard place? Hahah I find these takes so laughable.
The liquidity is getting funneled into AI and other trades.
If Bitcoin is truly better money then all of this short term stuff won’t matter at all.
Fixed it for ya.
Or bitcoin!
The Do Kwon vibes are strong indeed. Wen Saylor with rectal ledger pic?
Hahaha
I didn't say it is going to blow up. I am simply pointing out he is at the mercy of the market right now. He might not need to do anything. Bitcoin might rally 20% next week. STRC will got back to par and MSTR will rally 25%. That's a potential outcome.
He probably shouldn't do anything. Let STRC find a bottom, people who want to sell can. But it is a real blow to his thesis if this thing trades massively under par for longer than a couple week.
But we are all at the mercy of the market.
Hardly a blow to his thesis. If you listen to his keynotes he makes it clear STRC is dead in the water if bitcoin doesn’t grow.
This bear market got investors shook.
Yes but the drawdown is STRC is more about rotation into SATA and the fact he reduced runway for the dividends from 18 months to 6 than it is about the bear market. He didn’t need to do that. Hence my chess analogy. He gave the market more leverage to have him at its mercy.
I don’t think so. Saylor is jigging for the credit rating agencies. He’s got a B- rating which is an absolute joke.
Retail was never the big fish. It was always to go after the massive credit/treasury market.
Same with SATA.
Sure he took an early gamble and it appears to look foolish but the dividends are still secured. Even if he has to dump bitcoin he can still pay the dividend.
The balance sheet is way too strong and he can always sell stock (which is why the stock market exists in the first place) to raise capital. The big fear is MSTR holders dump but the equity will fall below the balance sheet of the company.
The market did the same exact thing to Robinhood almost 3 years ago and now Robinhood has crushed bitcoin’s fiat performance due to this terrible mispricing.
He never should've showed up in jeans and opened with the Bongcloud attack in the first place, and now he is reaping what he sowed.
Haha thank you for leaning into my analogy here.
Lmao @ bong cloud attack.
Haven't heard that one in a while.
Bongcloud!! <3
Yes, dilution as a service companies are coming around to the simple strategy of "HODL and PRAY"
One of these days one of these companies are going to figure out they can just build a cash flowing business and buy Bitcoin with it. Crazy idea I know.
Isn’t that basically how this whole thing started?
Yeah for about one month and then MSTR started issuing debt to buy Bitcoin.
Scaling a business to keep up with the growth of bitcoin isn't exaclty straight forward. Same thing that happens on an individual level when someone's stack starts to make their 9-5 DCA irrelevant.
I would like to see what happens if they follow through on the logic of MSTR and actually sell bitcoin to buy shares when the mNAV inverts.
mNAV is inverted now. Their mNAV calculation is like BLS inflation rate calculation.
And I’d like to see them sell bitcoin to buy shares until it gets back to par.
That would be fun in a bear market.
No, one of these guys won't figure it out
One of these days someone is going to need to make a "strategy is dead" obituary page full of SN posts predicting their demise. This is getting quite silly lol.
I didn't say strategy is dead. I said the market has them cornered and I laid out the options they have to defend. What part of the post are you trying to refute?
Non, I agree with your assessment of your post. I'm just commenting on the trend on SN in general.
Only thing I would point out is, sata has a higher dividend than strc and are trading closer to par, and they seem to be doing just fine.
I think stackers might be a little sick of the Saylor schtick is all. I think you can respect his ability to stack this many sats and also question some of the recent decision making and methods of marketing.
That's fair.
What some people are missing is that BTC price is not independent of what Strategy is doing.
BTC can't go up forever when one company owns more and more of it while getting deeper into debt.
The humble-ing is real