I mean, obviously. Why didn't I think of making an AI bot for predictions?? #1517629 #1516710
Most of you don’t visit FT Alphaville for our elite ball knowledge. And yet. Earlier this month, we launched our AI Prediction World Cup to plug a hole on the homepage test the abilities of consumer-level generative AI tools against the massive capabilities of, uh, us and Goldman Sachs
LOL AT HAARLAND, AN AI-ENABLED HUMANOID #1516054
Our own guesses came in a little bit late — meaning we lacked artisanal, human-curated guesses for 12 of the games — but with the group stage having wrapped up over the weekend, we have some results. Looking only at the 60 games for which everyone had entries, Goldman leads the way — but Toby, as we suspected, may be our best defence against Skynet:
Incredibly enough, some of the Alphaville team beat aaaaalll the chatbots.
Maybe there's some alpha in the prediction game(!) yetMaybe there's some alpha in the prediction game(!) yet
archive: https://archive.md/tcX1a
Once the bots make better predictions than humans, won't the only thing that moves on a prediction market be insider knowledge?
If the standard operating procedure is to feed data into your bot and then it spits out the prediction positions you should take, and if most prediction market enjoyoors have access to roughly the same quality of bots as others, I would think there'd be no profit in it. The only thing that changes that calculation is if you have knowledge you know no one else has.
Maybe this is already true and prediction markets actually only trade on insider information -- but there's like a feeling in our culture that people who do superior analysis of the lay of the land (like Toby and the bros at Alphaville) are able to draw out insights that no one else can see.
I keep having this fantasy of an AI-world where we all rely on AI to be the filter through which we view the world (and the transmitter by which we reach the world) and there's a moment where I wonder if it isn't just extra steps.
so then it becomes a game of verifying/assigning probability to whether I in fact do have knowledge nobody else does -- you know, the soldier trading contracts before invading Venezuela.
So, perhaps I have a good standing/high reputation on the trading site, and so we can have derivative bets on whether I have inside information. Ohhh, the possibiiiilities