The only thing that changes that calculation is if you have knowledge you know no one else has.

so then it becomes a game of verifying/assigning probability to whether 

 in fact do have knowledge nobody else does -- you know, the soldier trading contracts before invading Venezuela.

 have a good standing/high reputation on the trading site, and so we can have derivative bets on whether I have inside information. Ohhh, the possibiiiilities

Stacker_Sports

econ

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denlillaapan

> The only thing that changes that calculation is if you have knowledge you know no one else has.

so then it becomes a game of verifying/assigning probability to whether _I_ in fact do have knowledge nobody else does -- you know, the soldier trading contracts before invading Venezuela. 

So, perhaps _I_ have a good standing/high reputation on the trading site, and so we can have derivative bets on whether I have inside information. Ohhh, the possibiiiilities