Come meet the purist wing of the prediction market crowdCome meet the purist wing of the prediction market crowd

Alas, if you thought prediction markets are just illegal sports gambling — which my pal Matt Levine routinely says https://stacker.news/items/1517667r/denlillaapan, #1517993 — you've come to the right place!

Prediction markets are... "civilization's way of knowing what it knows" -- Eliezer Yudkowsky

They, summarizes the journo, “aggregate bets based on people’s insights into and beliefs about the future.”

That's a pretty neat, idealistic summary... but also at a high level what financial markets do. Say hi to the new boss, same as the old boss.

Anyway, this conf piece in Bloomberg expertly describes what prediction markets do and what they can offer — and showcases the nonsense and playful, autistic, silly gambling mentality their most ardent proponents carry. They are, in contrast to Bitcoin, on the up and with a ton of (largely positive?) attention.

Background ICY somehow MI:

The conference schedule also reflected the idealism of the prediction market OGs. [GMU Econ prof Robin] Hanson gave a presentation on his idea for “futarchy,” a system in which prediction markets would be used to help corporate and government leaders make decisions

If the average Kalshi or Polymarket user bets on the Super Bowl champion or the best picture Oscar winner or the price of Bitcoin, the Manifest crowd professes to be more interested in how prediction markets can be used to improve society.

here’s a beautiful fucking summary:

"they’re particularly united in their passion for probabilistic thinking and for pragmatic, metrics-based problem-solving. They’ve embraced prediction markets as a key tool to glean knowledge, on the theory that groups of people betting on their views predict outcomes more accurately than individuals on their own.""they’re particularly united in their passion for probabilistic thinking and for pragmatic, metrics-based problem-solving. They’ve embraced prediction markets as a key tool to glean knowledge, on the theory that groups of people betting on their views predict outcomes more accurately than individuals on their own."

YES, I thought seeing this; HERE’s a juicy quote I can shove in Undisc’s face for some cool schmuck agreeing with me…

Turns out he’s just a precocious 14-yo – described as “a teenage wunderkind” – writing a newsletter. (So a bit like me, then?? Minus the wunder) Ugh.

The journo finds a whale, “Domer,” who voices similar concerns: most trades on prediction markets are “silly” – prop bets, mention markets etc. That's more like it. I don't mind making sats from world cup bets/arbitrage or BIP-110tardy or who's gonna clasp the F1 title or win the Stanley Cup when those markets are mispriced... but I'm not pretending I'm making some incredible social contribution.

I think all this reading and SN shitposting is making me warm up to the idea a little bit... insider trading sort of the point, and weird, quirky, decentralized bet issuances necessary. @Team_Predyx is the way, obviously, #1517191, a semi-centralized marketplace fueled by bitcoin and unburdened by the Kalshi/Polymarket regulatory problems.

Also, having read and listened to Robin Hanson for years, I guess it was about time. We shall see. Imma tamper this newfound optimism with Whitney Webb/Mark Goodwin's 55-minute read(!) on Polymarket's sordid/secret history. See you guys on the other side

archive: https://archive.md/NssH6