That doesn’t mean there aren’t better and worse approaches.

Game of whack-a-mole, can't win. Goodhart's law, instrument becoming a measure and fails to be an instrument

denlillaapan

My point, that I do mean, is that resolution criteria need to account for things like that and be robust against attempts at rigging outcomes.

Participants also need to learn to think critically about non-obvious ways the criteria might be met.

Everyone’s still pretty new to this stuff and mostly they aren’t good at it yet.

Politics_And_Law

econ

Prediction Markets as Falsehood Machines (Money Stuff, Matt Levine)

My point, that I do mean, is that resolution criteria need to account for things like that and be robust against attempts at rigging outcomes. 

Participants also need to learn to think critically about non-obvious ways the criteria might be met. 

Everyone’s still pretty new to this stuff and mostly they aren’t good at it yet.