Wooow, this really is the year for prediction markets. #1524119, #1521591, #1518216

...and they're taking us all by storm, financially and intellectually...and they're taking us all by storm, financially and intellectually

yes, banning insider trading is ridiculous regulatory cope... revealing unknown insider info is SORT OF the point...

Since a lot of biotech firms are one-drug wonders, this is basically probabilistic pre-IPO sales.

Pretty incredible.

Kalshi is expanding its wagers to include bets on drug trial results, an expansion into new predictions territory as platforms continue to rapidly gain popularity and offer opportunities to bet on virtually anything.

The betting platform said the expansion into clinical trials and FDA regulatory decisions would help surface information on drug trials that otherwise go unreported. A publicly listed contract on a drug trial would produce a “continuously updated, public probability that reflects the weight of the evidence, rather than the preferred message of the trial sponsor”, the company said.

"Critics have said prediction platforms such as Kalshi are at risk of market manipulation and insider trading.""Critics have said prediction platforms such as Kalshi are at risk of market manipulation and insider trading."

yes, and the critics are idiots. But I know why the MSM and intelligentsia hate them so: "It averages over 5 million monthly users, a large share of whom are young men"...

Earlier this week, filings with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed Kalshi was also making plans to offer contracts to users who wanted to bet on flight cancellations – the percentage of flights cancelled at a specific airport over a given timeframe.

The contracts would be based on data from FlightAware, a flight tracking company, with information from the US Department of Transportation as a backup, Kalshi said in the filing.

This all just gambling? nah:

Though Kalshi has emphasized that it is not a gambling platform, experts say that prediction markets are just as addictive, and US regulators are not doing enough to keep users safe. Kalshi recently announced that it would give $2m to the National Council on Problem Gambling to help with “trader health and safety”.