Some people just haven't thought through serious topics properly.
Look, if you have prediction markets that are as regulated as sports gambling sites and as policing of insider trading as regular financial markets... you have not improved on the state of the world
Much of the point (insofar as there is one...) of prediction markets is to INCENTIVIZE THE REVELATION OF HIDDEN INFORMATION. It's like page 2 of any article, scholarly or popular, that has ever been written on the virtues of prediction markets #364350, #1493892
Alas, we have some retarded tradfi lady out swingingAlas, we have some retarded tradfi lady out swinging
That history makes me worry about Kalshi’s announcement last week that it plans to accept bets on FDA approvals and clinical trial results. The prediction market says would-be participants will have to disclose their employers and that people who work at drugmakers or have access to unblinded data will be barred from participating. It also will not start the betting until after trial enrolment has already closed.
"Kalshi contends that such 'events contracts' will keep competitors and the public better informed about a vital industry and be of interest to traders who want to bet on specific drug milestones, rather than take a view on an entire drugmaker’s share price""Kalshi contends that such 'events contracts' will keep competitors and the public better informed about a vital industry and be of interest to traders who want to bet on specific drug milestones, rather than take a view on an entire drugmaker’s share price"
Yes, we know. #1527191
DeNault revealed last week that Kalshi had frozen the account of Donald Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator for allegedly using insider knowledge of the president’s speeches to bet on their contents.
...but why? Let him.
Also: Ms Nancy is the best investor in human history:
Kalshi’s policing efforts stand in sharp contrast to the general vibe in Washington. Some members of Congress regularly trade stocks affected by their actions, and a trio of anonymous accounts at Kalshi’s offshore rival Polymarket not only placed timely wagers on the first Iran attack but also made $600,000 on the April ceasefire.
Market providers can only do so much with advanced detection techniques and bettor screening. Without the threat of government prosecution, unscrupulous people will keep trying to profit from inside knowledge. The ever-increasing reach of prediction markets all but ensures that more and more of them will find ways to do so.
YES, good!YES, good!
That's progress, that's making humanity better off. The rest of us have a LOT of fucking educating twatheads like yourself to do
archive: https://archive.md/HUxWx
I dunno man, as a supporter of free markets and deregulation...... fighting in support of the social value of prediction markets is not the hill that I want to die on
me neither, actually.
It's pretty icky at the end of the day. But I guess I'm coming around to it-.-
It’s weird to put the responsibility on the platform.
If someone violates an NDA or commits some sort of crime to cash in on their knowledge, we already have mechanisms to punish those infractions.
I think a lot of people still treat prediction markets like gambling, when they're really information markets. The incentives are completely different.
Prediction markets are most valuable when they aggregate information that isn't obvious yet. If you remove everyone who might actually know something useful, you end up with a market that's less informative.
The interesting question is where you draw the line. Markets work because participants have different information and different beliefs. If everyone has exactly the same information, the market becomes far less useful.
There's definitely a balance to strike. You don't want outright fraud, but you also don't want regulations so strict that they destroy the very signal these markets are supposed to produce.