Hello everyone! Please take a couple of minutes to read this post and share your thoughts in the comments below.
This text is the very last piece I wrote about six months ago—right before the war between Iran and the United States broke out and led to an 80-day (2,100-hour) internet blackout in Iran. I originally prepared this complete script along with 200 AI image generation prompts and voiceover instructions for a YouTube channel and text-based content creator. However, when the war started and the internet was shut down, I was forced to sell my laptop to pay for my medication and basic living expenses. As a result, I haven't been able to take on any new orders since then.
I apologize for the long introduction! I am sharing this text today because nearly 90% of the analysis, predictions, and thoughts I wrote six months ago have actually come true. Please leave your comments—whether good, bad, or critical—and let me know what you think. Also, I would really appreciate it if you could tell me what you believe is a fair payment or market value for writing a full script like this, along with 200 AI image prompts (in USD or Bitcoin). Your opinion means a lot to me.
*(Main Analysis
To understand how a potential war between Iran and the United States in 2026 might unfold, you first need to clear your mind of Hollywood movies. Modern warfare is not soldiers fighting in trenches; it is a war of data, signals, and real-time logistics.
We are in February 2026, several months after the limited yet bloody confrontation in June 2025—known as the "12-Day War"—which changed the rules of the game worldwide. As we speak, diplomats are bargaining behind closed doors in Muscat, Oman. But if we turn the camera away from the Muscat hotels and zoom in on the military map of the region, we face the most terrifying concentration of firepower in modern history. Let’s examine precisely and scientifically what cards each side has laid on the table.
On the blue side of the field stands the United States. The US has implemented the "Iron Enclosure" doctrine. According to satellite imagery and CENTCOM reports, we are not looking at a classical deployment. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group—a floating nuclear city—is stationed in the Sea of Oman, and the USS George H.W. Bush has left the Atlantic Ocean to join it. However, America's primary power lies not on the water, but at land bases. The US currently has approximately 45,000 battle-ready troops in the region, but the key lies in the quality of these forces. Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE are currently hosting heavy squadrons of F-15E Strike Eagles and fifth-generation F-35 fighters. This means the US is no longer relying solely on its navy; they have built a defensive and offensive umbrella extending from Jordan to Bahrain, designed with a single goal: blinding Iran in the very first seconds of the war.
On the red side of the field stands the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has completely overhauled its military doctrine following the experience of the 12-Day War. Iran has shifted from an "asymmetric defense" doctrine to an "offensive deterrence" doctrine. What does this mean? It means Iran will no longer wait to absorb a blow. According to leaked intelligence reports, Iran has transformed the entire Persian Gulf coastline from Abadan to Chabahar into a missile fortress. We are talking about underground missile cities carved 500 meters deep into the Zagros Mountains. The star of the field for Iran is the Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile—a liquid-fueled missile capable of carrying a 1,500 kg warhead up to a range of 2,000 kilometers. This puts every single US base mentioned within direct strike range. Even more surprising is Iran's unveiling of drone-carrier ships like the Shahid Bagheri. These are converted container ships fitted with flight decks, capable of launching hundreds of suicide drones not from Iran's coast, but from the middle of the Indian Ocean—pushing the conflict away from Iranian borders and destabilizing the ocean.
The big picture is this: America relies on absolute air superiority and precision technology, while Iran relies on saturating the battlespace with thousands of cheap missiles and drones, leveraging its geography. The high Zagros Mountains challenge American radars; American technology faces Iranian quantity. This is not a classic confrontation—it is a clash of two entirely different philosophies of war. If the trigger is pulled, it will bear no resemblance to the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Now that the stage is set, the question is: if the Muscat negotiations fail, how will the first bullet be fired? Let’s move to Phase One: Shock and Blackout.
Phase One: Shock and BlackoutPhase One: Shock and Blackout
Imagine it is 2:00 AM Tehran time. The Muscat talks have officially collapsed. The city is quiet, everyone is asleep, but in the war rooms of the Pentagon and the General Staff, heart rates are at 120 bpm. Unlike Hollywood movies, the 2026 war does not start with an explosion; it begins with a deadly silence.
The first move by the US is an invisible attack: EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft take off from the USS Abraham Lincoln, and EC-130H planes begin pumping terabytes of noise and jamming onto Iranian radars. The objective? To paralyze the neural network of Iran's air defense in the first hour, keeping early-warning radars in the Zagros Mountains blind to what is coming.
Immediately following this electronic blinding, the first wave of physical strikes begins. The US takes no risks with its precious F-35 pilots flying into the heart of Iranian air defenses; instead, the attack begins with Tomahawk cruise missiles. Virginia-class submarines and destroyers in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean launch dozens of Tomahawks, flying at low altitudes through valleys to evade radar.
Where will these missiles strike, and why would the US incur such heavy costs? Pentagon analysts have done the math: a war with Iran means $300-a-barrel oil and a global economic recession. If they strike, the targets must be valuable enough to justify the damage. The US aims to destroy four main targets in this phase:
- Nuclear Facilities: Striking new centrifuges in Natanz and Fordow buried under mountains using heavy bunker-buster bombs.
- Missile Cells: Targeting Iranian ballistic missile launch sites to prevent a counterattack.
- Command Centers: Cutting off communication between Tehran and its regional bases.
- Senior Commanders: Decapitation strikes similar to the assassination of General Soleimani or actions in the 12-Day War to induce chaos in the command chain.
However, this is precisely where US calculations could crumble. Iran has rehearsed for this moment for years. Knowing it cannot compete in air warfare, Iran holds the upper hand on the ground and in missile inventory. As Tomahawks travel through the air, Iran deploys its saturation (swarm attack) doctrine. Underground missile doors open, launching salvos of Emad, Kheybar Shekan, and Fattah ballistic missiles toward US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE.
Simultaneously, thousands of inexpensive suicide drones are unleashed like locusts into the sky. Iran's military logic here revolves around wallet warfare: the US is forced to fire a $4 million Patriot interceptor missile to shoot down a $20,000 Shahed drone. Once US defense magazines are depleted, heavy Iranian missiles break through and hit their targets.
Regarding ground invasion, the numbers are clear: Iran's regular army ground forces comprise roughly 350,000 active troops, alongside 150,000 to 200,000 elite IRGC ground troops specialized in asymmetric warfare, plus hundreds of thousands of Basij militia. Altogether, this totals a ground force of nearly one million personnel. To occupy a country of this size and force density, the US would require at least two million troops—an operational impossibility. Thus, the 45,000 US troops in the region act as a "defensive shield" rather than an invading force, stationed primarily to defend bases against potential attacks by regional proxy forces.
The Second Front: Israeli Entry and the Northern FrontThe Second Front: Israeli Entry and the Northern Front
Israel knows that a US strike guarantees an Iranian counterattack on Israeli soil. Therefore, Israel adopts a maximum preemptive strike strategy. Israeli F-35I squadrons modified for long-range operations enter Iranian airspace to target underground missile production and warhead assembly sites. Reports suggest Israel may also utilize Jericho-3 ballistic missiles designed to strike deep into Iranian territory.
Iran's response will trigger the "Immediate Reciprocal Launch" doctrine from underground cities in Tabriz, Kermanshah, and Lorestan, targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, and the Hatzerim Airbase, unveiling the Fattah-2 hypersonic missile. Hypersonic missiles maneuver at speeds exceeding Mach 15, severely challenging defense systems like Israel's Arrow designed for predictable ballistic trajectories.
Concurrently, Iran activates its "Ring of Fire." Hezbollah in Lebanon, along with allied groups in Iraq and Yemen, launch coordinated strikes. Israel's defense systems are forced to contend with three simultaneous threat layers: heavy ballistic missiles from Iran (high altitude), thousands of precision rockets from southern Lebanon (low altitude), and suicide drones from Iraq and Yemen. This sheer volume overloads defense radar computers, causing system failure. While an Arrow battery tracks an Iranian ballistic missile, a Hezbollah rocket impacts, and a Yemeni drone dives into the target.
The Final Card: Straits and Attrition WarfareThe Final Card: Straits and Attrition Warfare
Closing the Strait of Hormuz is a final-resort measure for Iran—akin to pulling the pin on a grenade held in its own hand—because China is Iran's primary oil customer. Iran will only execute this if its existential survival is threatened and its oil exports are reduced to absolute zero. Simultaneously, the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait by Houthi forces in Yemen renders the Suez Canal unusable. Commercial ships are forced to detour around the entire African continent, triggering global inflation.
Furthermore, Western assumptions regarding an "internal collapse" within Iran face the psychological phenomenon of Rally Round the Flag in response to foreign attacks. While border insurgent groups may attempt to exploit the chaos, major powers like China and Russia will not enter a Third World War with the US over Iran; their support will likely be limited to UN Security Council vetoes, satellite intelligence sharing, or covert supply chains.
Ultimately, this conflict has no military winner. Iran's defensive architecture is built on a "mosaic defense" doctrine, meaning local command bases operate independently even if central communications in Tehran are severed. For complete regime change, the US would be forced into street-by-street urban warfare across cities like Tehran and Isfahan—a conflict ten times more severe than Vietnam or Afghanistan. The 2026 war is not a war where a victory flag is raised; it is a war that only lengthens the list of casualties.
I wrote this text in Persian because I am not fully fluent in English, so I apologize if you see any errors in the sentence structure of the text.
So, interestingly (and very good research btw if proposed before events unfolded), things did play out as described. There was the ramp-up, the sudden surprise hit, the decapitation attempt, and then the attempt to manage the war from air. But it became clear to everyone, especially Iran, that the US didn't have the stomach to set foot on the ground. And, Iran did show early on it could do very serious damage with drones, which it has plenty of. Generally, I don't think the US even went into the event with an expectation of total war; I think instead it expected to have a fast intimidation event, kill some of the known leaders and then get a comfortable negotation place to pressure good terms. Israel, unfortunately, stuck its nose in the mix, pushing the US hand and messing up what the US thought was going to be a nice business dinner at the negotation table.
So here we are now, as your wrote, at the Straight of Hormuz attrition phase, with serious risks and damage potential from drones and, surprise surprise, the ballistic missiles have now shown up. Iran is in a corner, but the US still doesn't have the stomach for a land war, preferring to lob bombs from a distance hoping to still intimidate from above.
In my opinion, the key factor will not be either player. It will be an outsider like China or Russia who step in to change the dynamic. Russia is extremely unlikely at this point, so China is the one to watch. It could use the event to poke the US in the eye and get a nice foothold in Iran coming to the rescue. It could do nothing, hoping for even more desperate need and better capitulation conditions by coming in later to the rescue, again poking the US in the eye. And, of course, it could do nothing at all, which I doubt is a real choice. China has a lot to gain here by becoming the new global policeman and reigning in the aggressiveness of the US. But, then it has to deal with the fallout of that move. There are far cheaper markets to take advantage of in the meantime because the US is predisposed. Yet, as the election nears, and a potential for US political disruption, China could step in during the domestic US chaos, and suddenly become Iran's formidable protector. The US would have no choice but to back off, especially if the mid-terms go against the current US Administration. That would be a global shock.
USA is prepared for anything. They saw an annoying PRC proxy that killed our guys and hit send.
If the PRC wants to go to war over protecting the IRGC, that's worse optics than going to war over Taiwan. That's interfering with US internal affairs. We didn't even start it if they react like that over their oil suppliers getting bombed.
If I understand you correctly, I must say that your miscalculations start precisely from this point, when you think that Iran needs China or Russia to continue this war... If you had read my post to the end, I would have mentioned that China and Russia will definitely not support Iran and stand against America in this war... Because if China and Russia want to fight, they must enter a full-scale war and enter a classic war style, which I have no doubt will be defeated by America. The Iranian war method based on mosaic defense and asymmetric warfare has been designed from 30 years ago to the present day and has been successful up to this moment, and you can see the evidence of it now.
I think the US does plan to escalate to a classic war with China, and from that perspective has no reason to back down in response to them.
Thank you for taking the time to read the text and commenting... I agree with you on almost all of these points, except for the final point of your comment, because I believe that if the opposition party's pressure on Trump and his entourage does not increase in the United States and he cannot control the him/her , Trump will gain more courage and pave the way for him to leave behind a great legacy and immortalize his name with this legacy by defeating Iran and acquiring Iran's oil and gas resources, as well as dominating the Strait of Hormuz. But this will be his biggest mistake because the only way to achieve these goals is a ground attack on Iran and an all-out attack. For this, he may hire Syrian mercenaries under the command of the interim Syrian President Al-Jolani, as well as African or Egyptian mercenaries or even Pakistani forces for this all-out attack. In this case, he will still not be able to achieve his goals. Iran may suffer a lot of damage, but it will not be defeated, and Trump will never be able to win this war. And it will present America with a more complex and difficult challenge than the war with Vietnam.
With Iran, it seems the US have finally found their match, an opponent that can retaliate.
I'm worried about how this ends and pray for the Iranian people caught in the middle of this mess.
Very prescient post.
Thank you, the people of Iran have always been invaded and attacked by foreigners throughout history and had to defend their own land and have always endured many losses because they have always wanted independence.
The US military is struggling in Iran, the Russian military is failing in Ukraine. Somehow 3rd tier armies are running circle around what we thought of as world powers. Maybe there is a meta reason for this. Maybe, the current technological meta favors underdogs. If I were Xi, I'd think twice about attacking Taiwan
I think that there are two aspects of this:
Both of these advancements dispoportionately favour the defender compared to the aggressor, as evidenced by the two wars in Iran and Ukraine. The defender is capable of targeting enemy bases and larger groupings of units, whereas the attacker is hard-pressed to find distributed defenders. I think that successfully conducting a war of conquest is nearly impossible these days against a determined nation.
It was great, I completely agree, I think the same thing. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Taiwan has specifically planned something like this in the years it has felt this danger,,? Because Iran has spent about 30 years on this and trained its forces like this. Let me be more clear. Think about it. A military person who entered an officer and military university in Iran about 30 years ago and has become a commander after 30 years and trains the forces under his command has been trained in exactly this war and has also trained others. Or in terms of military preparations, Iran made the right decision 30 years ago, instead of investing in and strengthening its air force, to build cheap drones and missiles. And to build tunnels several kilometers long and deep 500 meters under the most mountainous areas of Iran. Now you might say that Iran's air force has weakened, that's absolutely true, but if Iran had developed its air force 30 years ago, could it have confronted America now? I'll tell you the answer, no, it was impossible for it to have an air force now that could confront America and not be defeated because it was practically impossible under the sanctions, a third world country like Iran, which had fought Iraq for 8 years under Saddam with empty hands and was considered a scorched earth, to have an air force as powerful as America's today 30 years later. This is a long discussion that I wrote about and I'll try to share in the form of a post. Thank you for your comments.
Very prescient analysis I am impressed.
The war has unfolded very much as you predicted!
I see this war also in a wider context of China challenging US hegemony.
China now buys most of the oil from the middle east and has continued to buy Iraqnian oil despite US sanctions.
It is only because of Chinese support for Iran over more than a decade that Iran is still viable as a nation and a military.
China at the same time supports Russia and its challenge to the west via Ukraine.
China has the strongest economy- it produces nearly everything cheaper and more efficiently than anyone else- but it needs the energy imports from oil exporters and wants to secure those imports.
USA is in decline and must accept that- USA is nearly out of Interceptors and has lost credibility as a guarantor of security to oil exporters.
Hopefully USA can adjust to the new reality of Chinese economic dominance- it looks like that adjustment will not be easy, bit it will be easier if USA sees the writing on the wall rather than expending all its remaining power projection to the point of complete collapse...which is what Trump is doing.
If Iran succeeds it could be the end of Israel- Most of the Middle East want Israel gone.
There can be no peace in the region as long as Israel continues to exist in its current form seeking to expand and claim its Greater Israel expansionary vision.