The budget of the federal government is the largest of any organization in human history. It’s larger than the entire economy of every foreign country except China. And it mostly grows automatically, without regular input from elected officials.

In the past, huge surges in the national debt were largely caused by wars or recessions. They were temporary. When the war concluded or economic growth resumed, debt as a share of the economy would fall.

That’s not how it works anymore. The debt increases due to demographic trends as the bulk of spending goes to programs that serve an aging population. The budget deficit as a share of the economy in 2025, during a peacetime expansion, was larger than any year of the 1930s, the decade of the Great Depression.

Around 2030, the United States is projected to surpass three milestones that illustrate the lack of precedent for the government’s fiscal predicament.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, 2030 is the year when federal debt held by the public as a share of the economy will exceed the record set by World War II. Unlike in the ’40s, this debt shows no signs of ever declining.



...read more at archive.ph