In this week's video, I make the case that this is the most important video I've done in two years. The endgame I've been building toward, the point where Bitcoin enters its third wave adoption phase the same way AI infrastructure did a year ago is here. The reason is simple: AI agents compress innovation cycles, which decays terminal value across every public company. If you can't value a business three years out, growth becomes unhedgeable. Bitcoin is the one asset that isn't disrupted by AI. That's what makes it the purest AI trade, and why a 0% position is an implicit statement that there's a 0% chance of any of this.
Most of what you're hearing every week is endgame bias: the Fed will hike, long rates will break out, oil goes to 200, inflation is too high, AI is a bubble. All of it noise. The 10-year has traded between 4 and 4.70 for three years and the doomers apply the “this will end badly” losing framework of the last 17 years and keep fighting the government. Bessent is intervening across the yen, changing quarterly refunding language, and then buybacks while publicly quoting Satoshi. Warsh has five task forces built around supply-side deflation and is also a crypto believer. The academic Fed is no longer the relevant frame.
This week the tape confirmed the story. Bitcoin put in three large candles through the 200-day, a seven-sigma weekly move, with only two comparable prints in the last decade, both of which roughly doubled within two months. Ethereum's 200-day turned up. Gold and silver joined. The next constraint is not physical, it's financial: crypto rails for AI agents. Stripe buying OpenRouter tells you exactly where the guardrails are being built and how AI and crypto are aligned and the future.
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The AI angle is interesting because it shifts the Bitcoin thesis from “digital gold” to a neutral asset in a world where everything else is becoming harder to value. The convergence of AI agents and crypto rails could be much bigger than most people expect.
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