Lots of kerfuffle about this shit recently, but honestly not that much "signal"

I love "teeny-tiny stick."

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, or have maybe been lost down a rabbit hole of dataviz-rendering, you’ll have seen that Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has arrived to save the US bond market.

Precisely. Aaaand, hit with fresh selling last week because, frankly, this reeks of desperation and nobody believes Mr. Bessie.

Long-dated US Treasury yields have been rising quite a lot, further complicating the Treasury’s already complicated job of refinancing the federal government’s $40tn of debt at rates that don’t make budget maths too awks. As thing stand, Table S–1 (Economic Assumptions) of the Trump administration’s federal budget assumes the Fed will cut and that bond yields will rally. And the bond market is not, so far, obliging.

In the absence of surprisingly strong economic growth (the budget baseline already assumes around 3 per cent per annum) or more sustained overshoots of the Fed’s target in order to inflate the problems away (the budget assumes inflation at around 2.2 per cent per annum), higher bond yields mean that the Treasury will be locking in higher borrowing costs. And this in turn means the US is going to be recording even larger budget deficits.

Nothing stops this train, print, baby, print, and money printer go brrrrrrrrrr etc etc. We got the memes ready!

Presumably they’ll stop minting long-dated bonds too? Hmm. The US Treasury issued its quarterly refunding statement only two weeks ago. And the statement said that they planned to continue to sell just as many long-dated US Treasuries this quarter as they sold last quarter. Which is to say they plan to print $111bn of new 20-year and 30-year bonds:

This Bessent stunt is all a nothingburger?!

They wanna buy(back) some $2-6bn of long bonds (with additional short bonds, one presumes??), on top for a previously announced schedule of $111bn for the next quarter. Peanuts, in other words. You have a much bigger problem, Mr. Bessie!

In graphic format:

...and in formal FT meme format:

archive: https://archive.md/4QzNf