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Block 972,395
TL:DR

The Dodge Momentum Index rose 2.4% in September. Institutional planning (schools, hospitals, government) jumped 9.4% while commercial slipped 1.3% — and commercial is only being held up by data centers.

Institutional planning jumped 9.4% on the month and is up 17.2% year over year: education, healthcare and government work. Commercial planning slipped 1.3%, with retail, hotel and office improving but weaker data center and warehouse planning offsetting it.

The stat that matters: commercial planning is down 3% year over year even WITH data centers in it. Strip them out and it drops 14.9%. Data centers are still masking how soft the rest of commercial is.

45 projects worth 120.4B sats ($100M) or more entered planning in September. Biggest on the board: the 416.5B sats ($346M) Duke Raleigh Hospital addition, the 391.2B sats ($325M) Spartanburg Regional Heart & Vascular Hospital, plus a 577.8B sats ($480M) data center in Jermyn, Pennsylvania and two 569.3B sats ($473M) data centers in Bastrop, Texas.

Dodge's read: as institutional planning keeps building, spending in those sectors should strengthen into late 2027.


My Thoughts 💭

Shocked to see with the AI data center slow down that hospitals picked up the slack. Is the boom almost over? If it is i expect construction to contract which could cause Labor to get cheaper.

Is it a real slowdown or a disruption from all the NIMBY laws?

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Maybe a bit of both

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9 sats \ 0 replies \ @mkmloom 8h

Interesting post ✌️......thanks for sharing

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