Rarely persuaded by moonboi shit like this.... but today might be the day!

Is the thing working? Are we running off to the moon? No, we're stuck in the same god-awful trench we've been in for over a year and arguably for about 5 years. Where is this orange dream of which you speak?

We got everything right -- and world events keep validating that -- but the market says no. That's very discouraging. (And usually, a sign that you're wrong.)

the case for non-sovereign, censorship-resistant, hard money should not be forgotten because it will not go away.

I don't love this kind of cope and chart porn but it is a pretty chart:

Alex's case is four-fold: TECHNICAL, POSITIONING, FUNDAMENTAL, and SENTIMENT

Technical: the 50W MA has shifted into upward trajectory

Fifth week in a row of closing above... we're going to the moon.

There's a long-term, long-standing pattern (as if events from a decade ago are informative to this novel asset today):

How often has a reclaim been followed by a new leg down? Of the 13 completed reclaims since 2011, the split is how long the price had been below the average. The four that ended spells of 20 weeks or more 1) never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level in the following year; 2) were +1497%, +128%, +55%, +142% higher a year later; and 3) regained the prior all-time high within 33–83 weeks. Of the nine that ended spells of 14 weeks or less, seven fell more than 25% within a year. September's reclaim ended a 44-week spell (Chart 2). This is a pattern.

The four-year cycle agrees. The three completed cycles printed their lows on days 777, 889 and 912 after their halvings; this cycle's low so far came on day 802, and yesterday was day 916.

It's time. Even Saylor's AI-slopped bull says so. #1600946

Here's another aspect that annoys the fucking out of me: the double-standings/goal-shifting.

This was the shallowest bear on record (-53% against -93%, -85%, -84%, -77% before it) and the first in which price never traded below the network’s cost basis: the ratio of market value to realized value bottomed at 1.10, against 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 at the three prior lows.

We can spin "this was the shallowest bear" into makes sense by saying a) institutions are here, big-money bids etc, b) we're growing up so bears will be shallower. But following the dogma/idea that previous cycles are informative, it should spell we are not done yet. But whatever: dream on, moonbois.

Positioning: fast money is gone, only buyers and Hodlers left

The futures market shows how little macro money owns bitcoin today. In the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)'s Traders in Financial Futures data, asset managers' net long in CME bitcoin futures was 43.3k BTC in the week of the all-time high and is 18.4k now (-57%)

It's empty. Nobody (in high finance) is here.

Money managers’ 13F filings tell us about many of the institutional sellers, and they are the basis traders and the macro tourists. Reporting institutions held 355k BTC-equivalent of the spot ETFs at the Sept. 30, 2025, quarter-end, the last before the high, and 307k by June 2026 (-14%), and the decline sits almost entirely with the multi-strategy and macro funds, basis desks, and bank trading books that used the ETFs for carry and momentum

Also, compared to what?! What else should you own in these times?

The S&P 500 is 0.8% below a record set on Oct. 6 and the Nasdaq 100 4.5% below its own, while gold is 22% below January's high. Bitcoin, at Thursday’s price, is 35% below its high, so a 53% rise only returns it to a price it traded at a year ago (Chart 11). The alternative to all of them is cash. A bet against stocks and hard assets is a bet in favor of fiat, the one asset its issuer has promised, through $2 trillion deficits and a 5% 10-year Treasury, to keep diluting. That is the one position that makes no sense in the current environment.

Fundamental: fiscal world is fucked, money must be printed

Federal debt passed 40trn #1554591, yields are exploding everywhere. France is on fire, nobody buying (really: selling) houses because of rates, stock markets already at ATH... there's nowhere else to go but bitcoin (and gold...).

A sovereign refinancing $40 trillion at 5% while running 6% deficits faces mounting pressure to inflate, and history points in that direction. Every stress brings the central bank back as a buyer of last resort, as in 2020 and March 2023.

That is a nice ass fuck-the-boomers graph: #1603158

Even the AI TRADE is turned into an argument for bitcoin:

Morgan Stanley expects AI-related debt issuance to reach $570 billion in 2026 and about $1.5 trillion of the build-out through 2028 must be financed externally. If it pays off it will have been financed by credit expansion; if it does not, the losses will be socialized. Either way, the supply of claims on the future grows, and so does the value of a hard money asset with a fixed issuance.

"The second fundamental is older than any rate cycle: the need for money that no one can freeze, surveil or reprogram grows with the capacity to do those things"

Sentiment: Nobody is watching; "blockchain" is sexy

Blockchain-not-bitcoin is back. Was retarded the first few times it was here and it's retarded now (#1602889).

The 2026 version shows up in the data. The dollars have come onchain: stablecoins in circulation have grown 129% since the start of 2024, to $304 billion. Meanwhile bitcoin, the asset those rails were built to settle, sits a third below its high (Chart 14). That is dry powder parked inside the system, not capital that has left it.
The attention data confirm the neglect: Google searches for “bitcoin” fell to their lowest level in several years on Oct. 13, 2026; the crowd Fear & Greed index that read 71 at the October high printed 5 in February 2026 and 15 at the June low (per alternative.me); ETF flows are flat this month

"Bitcoin is 39% off its low with nobody watching."

SOME POTENTIAL RISKS that, writes Alex, would change his and his team's mind:

• a weekly close below the 50-week average ($76,540) not regained within a month;
• ETF holdings falling through the July 13 trough of 1.22 million BTC;
• a credible, dated path to a cryptographically relevant quantum machine;
• or a U.S. fiscal consolidation.

lol at that last one! Phat. chance. (then again, there's some boomer fucking on the way!! #1603158)