Not long ago the Fed was saying they were not even thinking about thinking to hike. And then the inflation was transitory. We all know what happened immediately next. You simply cannot trust the Fed.

Now they say they will hold for longer. So we know what they may do. They also said they don't want to do a redo of the 70s inflation reigniting when it was thought under control. So that is exactly what it may happen then.

They market expects various rate cuts already in 2023. Not just pause, but cuts! This means it is expected that there is going to be a strong recession. Powell said though, that he hopes on no recession or a very small recession. He still thinks he can soft land this. So I need to be ready for the big crash. Pause summer. And cuts for autumn/winter