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7 sats \ 7 replies \ @groeneboon 14 Aug 2023 \ parent \ on: What else are you an 'early adopter' of? tech
I'd say the odds are small that Russia will invade either Poland or the Baltics, as it would trigger Article 5 and NATO would step in. What I expect is that Russia will hold on to the territory they have now in the Donbas, Kherson and Zaporizhia (plus Crimea) and possibly conquer the parts of these regions they don't possess yet.
I see Poland taking part of north-western Ukraine (Lviv oblast, Volyn Oblast and possibly more) and Hungary the part of Ukraine with a large Hungarian minority (mainly Zakarpattia Oblast). Romania will probably take (part of) Odessa Oblast. What's left will be the new post-war Ukraine, if there's an Ukraine at all.
odds are small that Russia will invade either Poland or the Baltics, as it would trigger Article 5 and NATO would step in.
Russia don't have enough available troops and equipment currently to even try to have a fight with Poland currently. Unless you are talking about nuclear war.
I see Poland taking part of north-western Ukraine (Lviv oblast, Volyn Oblast and possibly more)
I think you see it totally wrong. Every nation in region have had past conflicts. Even Baltic states between themselves. But things have changed. Currently Poland is one of biggest supporters of Ukraine in this war against Russian aggression.
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As to your first point, we both say exactly the same thing, I just gave a different reason as to why Russia would not invade, so there's no disagreement there.
As to your second point, you're right that every nation in the region has had conflicts with neighbors. What you seem to forget, however, is that the borders have changed after almost every conflict throughout history and to think that we are special is, in my view, naive.
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It was before Helsinki Accords that most of the signatories try to follow, as it's not worth having small regional teritorial gain at a risk of losing some territory elsewhere. Border changes in Europe afterwards has happened by either countries uniting (Germany) or splitting apart (Yugoslavia, Soviet Union). Except for what Russians do.
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I think so because of the historical ties these countries have to the mentioned regions and the respective minorities (Hungarian, Polish etc.) that live in these regions. Apart from that, I think it's just a matter of opportunism and the fact that almost any war in history has ended in a similar fashion.
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Yeah, anything can happen really, lots of unexpected things have happened in the course of this war, but I wouldn't be surprised if this takes place.
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