not mean everyone can just earn 2%
I suppose there is an implicit expectation that a RFR is the same rate that anybody can get. I guess I was excluding that. You're right -- for now. Follow up, rhetorical, question: If the network gets larger, and a node can use their capital to create 2% yield opportunities, could they securitize that product, then sell it at a different discount rate (after they have committed their own capital?). Eg. I have 1.94 BTC, I sell a channel at a 2% APY, could I borrow against that, at a rate better than 2%, say 1%, and instantly pocket the difference while getting capital to sell another channel at 2%? If so, that 1% will be a RFR that everybody could access. Admittedly, probably not, because we're back to counter-party-risk territory.
most people should be glad if they can break even
If you bin this by amount of capital, does it change? Like, "Most people with under 0.1 BTC should be glad if they can break even. If you have over 3 BTC, it gets more realistic to expect something closer to the RFR"
I'm making up the 0.1 and 3 numbers, but is there a statement like that, that holds?