993 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 18 Nov 2023
There is the argument that today more closely resembles the 1940s than the 1970s:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-03-22/what-s-happening-in-the-world-economy-parallels-between-the-1940s-and-today
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2085 sats \ 0 replies \ @blocktock 18 Nov 2023 freebie
Agree with this premise. Mostly because Lyn says so 😄
1970s also had relatively low levels of debt and great demographics, which is completely inverse to today.
We may be even earlier than the 1940s comparison however. We've yet to see a proper Depressionary bust, or arguably worldwide conflict really get going. Both symptomatic of 1930s. Was 2008 comparable to 1929? I'm not convinced. Don't have the links handy, but these are pulled from some research into the reserve-currency holder at the time:
- For most of the 1920s decade, U.K. unemployment hovered between 10% and 12%. By the start of 1933 unemployment in Britain was 22.8%. (As of Oct-2023, in the U.S. it's laughably reported at a low figure of 3.9% suggesting space to upside).
- Unemployment fell substantially in 1933, 1934, and 1935. By January 1936 it stood at 13.9%. By 1938 it was around 10%. There is also the likelihood, the unemployment figures, masked the true scale of unemployment. Some estimates put unemployment rates higher during that time.
- More accommodative monetary policy (after abandoning gold standard) enabled an increase in the money supply of 34% between 1932 and 1936.
- In the late 1930s, a gradual re-armament programme began with a belated fiscal stimulus. This provided an additional boost to demand and economic growth. But, it was only the onset of full-scale war in 1939, that saw a return to full employment.
- In the mid and late 1920s, it was fashionable for women to look boyish. However, in the 1930s women’s dress became more conservative. (This shift hasn't happened yet either).
In the 30s is when regional civil wars were happening, lack of available credit, discontent on the rise, as was alcoholism (like we're seeing with drug usage), unemployment offset by wartime industries. We haven't witnessed all those trends play-out yet, so perhaps even 1940s is a bit early.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @quark 18 Nov 2023
So we could have a second stagflation like then but with 100 times larger debt. What could go wrong? Scary stuff, I hope you all got you nice bitcoin stack ready.
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