I know a lot of people talk about that, and there's a surface-level obviousness to it that's hard to argue with; but I have my doubts.

Partly because of efficient market theory, which is obviously not perfect, but is usually not stupidly, radically wrong for decades at a time. But mostly because the ambient transacting volume moment to moment is so vastly greater than the block reward. This got hashed out in great depth when PlanB's stock to flow model was all the rage.

I do think the story of the halving, and its arrival every four years, does a ton of work advancing the btc narrative and propagating it across all the talking heads. Which is maybe its principal mechanism of action.

Either way, we'll see shortly, I suppose. I hope you're right, fwiw.