Countdown to the next Halving
How to compute the (approximate) date of the next halving.
What is the significance of the Bitcoin Halving?
The halving decreases the amount of new bitcoins generated per block. This means the supply of new bitcoins is lower, making buying more expensive since, in normal markets, lower supply with steady demand usually leads to higher prices. The halving is necessary. This is how Bitcoin controls its supply. Once the block subsidy expires (probably on 2140) , transaction fees will be paid to miners for securing the network.
Context
New bitcoins are issued by the Bitcoin network every 10 minutes (approximately).
For the first four years of Bitcoin's existence, the amount of new bitcoins issued every 10 minutes was 50.
Every
210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), this number is cut in half.
The day the amount halves is called a "halving" or "halvening".| HALVING | BLOCK HEIGHT | DATE | NEW BTC per BLOCK | PRICE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
up to 209,999 | up until Nov 27, 2012 | 50 btc | $ 0.0 | |
1st | 210,000 | Nov 28, 2012 | 25 btc | $ 12.35 |
2nd | 420,000 | Jul 09, 2016 | 12.5 btc | $ 650.63 |
3rd | 630,000 | May 11, 2020 | 6.25 btc | $ 8,821.42 |
4th | 840,000 | let's estimate 👇 | 3.125 btc | 💰 |
How to estimate next halving's date
The Bitcoin halving is scheduled in block height, not date.
Values needed to estimate the next halving's date:
- today's date =
Dec 05, 2023(while I'm writing) - actual block height
819,875 - halving's block height =
840,000 - time between blocks =
10 minutes(approximately) - minutes per day =
1,440
so we have:
- blocks until next halving:
840,000-819,875=20,125 blocks - minutes until next halving:
20,125x10 minutes=201,250 minutes - days until next halving:
201,250/1,440=139 days - halving's estimate date:
Dec 05, 2023+139 days= 👉 Apr 22, 2024 👈
Remember: this is an approximate date assuming a perfect time between blocks of
10 minutes